374 In the end I consider these experts accepted that the methodology to be adopted varied, depending upon whether the separate causes potentially acting in combination were entirely independent of each other in effect, or whether, as seems to have been generally acknowledged in this case, the separate causes potentially acting in combination were non-independent in the sense that the effect of each was greater in the presence of the other. All the epidemiological and statistical experts accepted that the correct methodology to move from an elevated relative risk to the probability that that relative risk caused the phenomenon (in Professor Berry's language to the "attributable fraction among the exposed" (Exhibit 145(1), p 2) is by the application of the formula (RR - 1)/RR. No matter what value is selected for RR the application of the formula will, of necessity, always produce a figure of less than 1. This is to be expected because no matter how high the RR may be, there always remains a possibility (progressively a smaller one) that the phenomenon may be due to some other factor and, hence, the calculation may approach, but never arrive at, the figure of 1.0 (ie 100 per cent). However, when in a case such as the present, where one is identifying two potential carcinogens to both of which the deceased is known to have been exposed (here tobacco and asbestos) and one calculates the RR for each and converts that to the probability of cause being due to that carcinogen alone, each resultant probability figure will necessarily be less than one. It is the next step which is, to say the least, enigmatic. In order to estimate the combined or "multiplicative" effect of the two carcinogens acting together, a number of the experts, specifically Professor de Klerk, Mrs Sowden and Mr Kottek, have multiplied those two factors (each being less than one) together. The inescapable result is that the "synergistic" or "multiplicative" effect is lower than the probability of either the more potent or the less potent factor alone. Thus, in the present case, if the risk of the probability that smoking caused Mr Cotton's lung cancer is 80 per cent (ie 0.80) and the probability that asbestos caused the disease is 16 per cent (0.16) then, on this methodology, the combined effect is 0.80 x 0.16 = 0.128 or 12.8 per cent - markedly lower than the probability that either of the carcinogens alone caused the disease. In the passages in the transcript, to which I have just referred, each of the three experts accepted that this runs counter to the qualitative evidence that the combined effect of smoking and asbestos exposure as a potential cause of lung cancer is greater than the effect of either carcinogen acting alone but explained, nevertheless, that it was correct statistically because the calculation addressed the three potential possibilities, namely: