4.1. Meaning of " likely " in s 1041E and s 1041H
180 ASIC's case was that JHINV breached s 1041E by making statements and/or engaging in conduct "likely" to have a particular effect: namely, to induce persons to apply for financial products or induce persons in the jurisdiction to dispose of or acquire financial products, or to have the effect of increasing, reducing, maintaining or stabilising the price for trading in those products.
181 It is well accepted in the authorities that the word "likely" carries with it a range of meanings, from "probable", in the sense of "more probable than not", or "more than a fifty percent chance", to "material risk", as seen by a reasonable person as "such as might happen", to "some possibility", that is, more than a remote or bare chance. Or it may mean that the conduct engaged in is inherently of such a character that it would ordinarily cause the effect specified, or "real chance or possibility": see Tillmanns Butcheries Pty Ltd v Australasian Meat Industry Employees' Union (1979) 27 ALR 367 per Bowen CJ at 375; Deane J at 382. See also Cream Holdings v Banerjee [2004] UKHL 44; [2005] 1 AC 253 at [12].
182 The same approach was taken in an altogether different context in Boughey v R [1986] HCA 29; (1986) 161 CLR 10, where the High Court considered the phrase "likely to cause death" in the Criminal Code (Tas), s 157. The majority, Mason, Toohey and Deane JJ held, at [15], that the word "likely" conveyed "the notion of a substantial - a 'real and not remote' - chance regardless of whether it is less or more than fifty percent".
183 It is also notable that s 1041E was moulded on the Trade Practices Act 1974 (Cth), s 52, where it is undisputed that the word "likely" bears the meaning of real and not remote chance: see Global Sportsman Ltd v Mirror Newspapers Ltd (1984) 2 FCR 82 at 87.
184 There was in fact no dispute on the appeal that for the purposes of s 1041E and s 1041H, the word "likely" means "real and not remote chance". There is authority to the contrary, in respect of s 1041E's predecessor, s 998, where it was held "likely" in this legislative context meant "more probably than not": see Australian Securities and Investments Commission v McLeod [2000] WASCA 101; (2000) 22 WAR 255 at [47]; Australian Securities Commission v Nomura International Plc (1998) 89 FCR 301 per Sackville J at 395-396. The same meaning has been given to the word "likely" in other legislative contexts: see, for example, Australian Telecommunications Commission v Kreig Enterprises Pty Ltd (1976) 14 SASR 303 per Bray CJ. With respect to these decisions, the comment of Baroness Hale of Richmond in SCA Packaging Ltd v Boyle [2009] UKHL 37; [2009] 4 All ER 1181 at [68] is compelling:
"… Parliament can always use the word 'probable' if that is what it means ..."
185 Although there was no dispute as to the meaning of the word "likely", the following remarks of Deane J in Tillmanns Butcheries provide helpful guidance as to the approach to be taken in determining whether certain conduct is likely to have a given effect. His Honour stated, at 382, that:
"… in the context of s 45 D (1) [of the Trade Practices Act 1974 (Cth)], the preferable view is that the word 'likely' is not synonymous with 'more likely than not' and that if relevant conduct is engaged in for the purposes of causing loss or damage to the business of the relevant corporation, it will suffice, for the purposes of the sub-section, if that conduct is, in the circumstances, such that there is a real chance or possibility that it will, if pursued, cause such loss or damage. Whether or not such conduct is likely (in that sense) to have that effect is a question to be determined by reference to well-established standards of what could reasonably be expected to be the consequence of the relevant conduct in the circumstances. In determining the answer to that question, it will be relevant that the persons engaging in the conduct did so with the purpose of causing such loss or damage." (emphasis added)
186 In determining whether there is a likely effect, the concern is not only with direct or sole effects. This is apparent from the Trade Practice cases. Section 52 provides that in trade or commerce a corporation shall not engage in conduct which is likely to be misleading or deceptive or which is likely to mislead or deceive. In Poseidon Ltd & Sellars v Adelaide Petroleum NL [1994] HCA 4; (1994) 179 CLR 332 Brennan J stated, at 356-357, that where the making of a false representation induces a person to act in a certain manner, loss or damage may flow directly from the act and only indirectly from the making of the representation; but in such a case, the act "is a link - not a break - in the chain of causation".
187 In Henville v Walker [2001] HCA 52; (2001) 206 CLR 459 Gleeson CJ said, at [13]:
"It will commonly be the case that a person who is induced by a misleading or deceptive representation to undertake a course of action will have acted carelessly, or will have been otherwise at fault, in responding to the inducement. The purpose of the legislation is not restricted to the protection of the careful or the astute. Negligence on the part of the victim of a contravention is not a bar to an action under s82 [allowing the recovery of compensation/damages against a person who has contravened s52(1)] unless the conduct of the victim is such as to destroy the causal connection between contravention and loss or damage."
188 It is also convenient at this point to consider Dowsett J's comment in National Exchange, at [23], where his Honour dealt with the question of what needed to be proved to satisfy the statutory requirement that conduct mislead or be likely to mislead. In this regard, Dowsett J said, at [23]:
"The way in which such a test is propounded in a particular case may, to some extent, reflect the way in which the applicant has sought to satisfy it. An applicant may seek to prove misleading effect by showing that many representees were misled. To discharge the relevant onus, it may well be necessary to show that a significant proportion was misled. On the other hand, there will be cases, such as the present case, where there is little, or perhaps no evidence that any person was actually misled. Where a regulatory authority seeks to prevent conduct in breach of a provision such as s 52 of the TP Act or subs 1041H(1) of the Act, this will often be the case. Such an applicant will rely upon the terms of the representation and the circumstances in which it was, or is to be made, looking to the notional representative class member as the basis for assessing the likely effect of the conduct in question. To speak of a reasonable member of a class necessarily implies that one is speaking of a significant proportion of that class. It is impossible to postulate a situation in which the reasonable member of a class is not representative of such a proportion."
189 His Honour also noted, at [24], that the test for determining whether persons were "likely to be misled" was an objective one and, at [25], that the criterion for selecting the class member was reasonableness, in the sense he discussed in the passage set out above.
190 Jacobson and Bennett JJ generally agreed with Dowsett J. Their Honours observed, at [49], that a statement which is literally true may nonetheless be misleading (see Hornsby Building Information Centre Pty Ltd v Sydney Building Information Centre Ltd [1978] HCA 11; (1978) 140 CLR 216 at 227-228 per Stephen J). Their Honours added, at [50]:
"A document which, when read as a whole, is factually true and accurate may still be capable of being misleading if it contains a potentially misleading primary statement which is corrected elsewhere in the document but without the reader's attention being adequately drawn to the correction."
191 In this case, JHINV did not assert that the statement "fully funded" was literally true. Its defensive position was that it related to a time past. Whether the statement was true or not would not be to the point on this argument. We have rejected JHINV's argument on this point. Consistent with our finding in this matter, we make two comments. First, if JHINV meant for persons to have access to other information in the market, it should have directed attention to that information or to the existence of other information within the slide. Secondly, the likely misleading nature of the statement may well have been augmented, not explained away, by comments in earlier documentation. Thus, if the reasonable investor had seen the 2001 Annual Report and then read a slide which said:
"Asbestos Foundation established 2001
- future claims separated and fully funded
- no future liability - no provision required"