Well-founded Fear of Persecution
36 One of the criteria for a protection visa is that an applicant is "a non-citizen in Australia in respect to whom the Minister is satisfied Australia has protection obligations under the Refugees Convention as amended by the Refugees Protocol": Migration Act 1958 (Cth) s 36(2)(a).
37 Article 1A(2) of the Convention provides as follows:
Article 1
DEFINITION OF THE TERM "REFUGEE"
A. For the purposes of the present Convention, the term "refugee" shall apply to any person who:
…
(2) As a result of events occurring before 1 January 1951 and owing to well-founded fear of being persecuted for reasons of race, religion, nationality, membership of a particular social group or political opinion, is outside the country of his nationality and is unable or, owing to such fear, is unwilling to avail himself of the protection of that country; or who, not having a nationality and being outside the country of his former habitual residence as a result of such events, is unable or, owing to such fear, is unwilling to return to it.
In the case of a person who has more than one nationality, the term "the country of his nationality" shall mean each of the countries of which he is a national, and a person shall not be deemed to be lacking the protection of the country of his nationality if, without any valid reason based on well-founded fear, he has not availed himself of the protection of one of the countries of which he is a national.
38 The meaning of the phrase "a well-founded fear of being persecuted" is now settled.
39 A person may have a "well-founded fear of being persecuted" even though the possibility of persecution occurring is well below 50%: Chan Yee Kin v Minister for Immigration and Ethnic Affairs (1989) 169 CLR 379 at 389 per Mason CJ, at 398 per Dawson J and at 429 per McHugh J. The decision of a delegate refusing a claim to refugee status was there held to be so unreasonable that no reasonable person could have reached it. In so deciding, Mason CJ observed:
… When the Convention makes provision for the recognition of the refugee status of a person who is, owing to a well-founded fear of being persecuted for a Convention reason, unwilling to return to the country of his nationality, the Convention necessarily contemplates that there is a real chance that the applicant will suffer some serious punishment or penalty or some significant detriment or disadvantage if he returns … : (1989) 169 CLR at 388.
McHugh J, after reviewing both decisions and commentaries, observed:
The decisions in Sivakumaran [[1988] AC 958] and Cardoza-Fonseca [(1987) 480 US 421)] also establish that a fear may be well-founded for the purpose of the Convention and Protocol even though persecution is unlikely to occur. As the United States Supreme Court pointed out in Cardoza-Fonseca an applicant for refugee status may have a well-founded fear of persecution even though there is only a 10 per cent chance that he will be shot, tortured or otherwise persecuted. Obviously, a farfetched possibility of persecution must be excluded. But if there is a real chance that the applicant will be persecuted, his or her fear should be characterized as "well-founded" for the purpose of the Convention and Protocol: (1989) 169 CLR at 429.
A claimant need not therefore positively prove that he will be persecuted or even that such an event is probable: SZMKK v Minister for Immigration and Citizenship [2010] FCA 436 at [25], 114 ALD 634 at 641 per Barker J. A remote chance is not a "real chance": SZQGN v Minister for Immigration and Citizenship [2012] FCA 436 at [4], 127 ALD 299 at 300 per Katzmann J.
40 The requirement that a fear be "well-founded" adds an objective requirement to the requirement that an applicant must in fact hold such a fear. And for a fear to be "well-founded", there must be a real substantial basis for it: Minister for Immigration and Ethnic Affairs v Guo (1997) 191 CLR 559 at 571-572. Brennan CJ, Dawson, Toohey, Gaudron, McHugh and Gummow JJ there made the following observations in relation to the need for a fear to be "well-founded" and the expression "real chance" as employed by Mason CJ in Chan:
An applicant for refugee status must also establish that his or her fear of persecution for a Convention reason is a "well-founded" fear. This element adds an objective requirement to the requirement that an applicant must in fact hold such a fear. In Chan, Mason CJ said:
"If an applicant establishes that there is a real chance of persecution, then his fear, assuming that he has such a fear, is well-founded, notwithstanding that there is less than a 50 per cent chance of persecution occurring."
In the same case, McHugh J said that a real chance of persecution excluded a far-fetched possibility of persecution but that as little as a 10 per cent chance of persecution may constitute a well-founded fear of persecution.
Chan is an important decision of this Court because it establishes that a person can have a well-founded fear of persecution even though the possibility of the persecution occurring is well below 50 per cent. But to use the real chance test as a substitute for the Convention term "well-founded fear" is to invite error.
No doubt in most, perhaps all, cases arising under s 22AA of the Act, the application of the real chance test, properly understood as the clarification of the phrase "well-founded", leads to the same result as a direct application of that phrase. Wu Shan Liang is an example. Nevertheless, it is always dangerous to treat a particular word or phrase as synonymous with a statutory term, no matter how helpful the use of that word or phrase may be in understanding the statutory term. … A fear is "well-founded" when there is a real substantial basis for it. As Chan shows, a substantial basis for a fear may exist even though there is far less than a 50 per cent chance that the object of the fear will eventuate. But no fear can be well-founded for the purpose of the Convention unless the evidence indicates a real ground for believing that the applicant for refugee status is at risk of persecution. A fear of persecution is not well-founded if it is merely assumed or if it is mere speculation. In this and other cases, the Tribunal and the Federal Court have used the term "real chance" not as epexegetic of "well-founded", but as a replacement or substitution for it. Those tribunals will be on safer ground, however, and less likely to fall into error if in future they apply the language of the Convention while bearing in mind that a fear of persecution may be well-founded even though the evidence does not show that persecution is more likely than not to eventuate.
41 In determining whether there is a "well-founded fear of being persecuted" regard may be had to the presence or absence of past persecution. In Guo Brennan CJ, Dawson, Toohey, Gaudron, McHugh and Gummow JJ went on to further observe:
Determining whether there is a real chance that something will occur requires an estimation of the likelihood that one or more events will give rise to the occurrence of that thing. In many, if not most cases, determining what is likely to occur in the future will require findings as to what has occurred in the past because what has occurred in the past is likely to be the most reliable guide as to what will happen in the future. It is therefore ordinarily an integral part of the process of making a determination concerning the chance of something occurring in the future that conclusions are formed concerning past events … : (1997) 191 CLR at 575.
In many cases, it has been recognised that "… the primary basis for what is said to be a well-founded fear of future persecution is an account of past persecution": Applicant NABD of 2002 v Minister for Immigration and Multicultural and Indigenous Affairs [2005] HCA 29 at [4], 216 ALR 1 at 3 per Gleeson CJ. See also: WAAOD v Minister for Immigration and Citizenship [2011] FCA 1044 at [33]-[35], 123 ALD 69 at 73-74 per Gilmour J.
42 To determine whether a claimant has a well-founded fear of being persecuted, the Minister or his delegate must first be satisfied that the claimant has a subjective fear of persecution and then determine objectively whether that fear is well-founded: SZOMU v Minister for Immigration and Citizenship [2011] FCA 140 at [39], 119 ALD 556 at 562 per Lander J.