37 As I observed earlier, the Federal Magistrate noted that the relevant law in relation to denial of government protection and the real chance test was taken from a template which might be considered "impeccable". His Honour, at [15], said he should assume that the Tribunal member had thought about the legal propositions therein set out "properly", unless there is some indication of contrary. As I indicated above, I agree with that approach.
38 At [16], the Federal Magistrate observed:
[16] In this situation, the concerns I have concerning [52] also need to be read in the context of the ensuing reasoning of the Tribunal in [54] and [55]. In the context of the factual circumstances of the present applicant's accepted history, it was, in my opinion, certainly open to the Tribunal to have arrived at a firm opinion, as a matter of fact, that there was an insufficient risk of Convention‑related denial of state protection. A conclusion which correctly applied the 'real chance' test cannot, therefore, be regarded as so surprising as to be unlikely.
39 As to whether or not there was a positive finding based on a clear exposition of the real chance test the Federal Magistrate observed, at [17]:
[17] The Tribunal came very close to making expressly a positive finding in the course of its assessment of the evidence in [52], and in the first sentence of [54], which excluded a real chance of Convention-related persecution. I would, therefore, be cautious in reading its subordinate factual findings themselves as revealing that the Tribunal asked itself the wrong question when it arrived at its ultimate conclusion. That is, as showing that it failed ultimately to ask itself the correct question, applying a proper appreciation of the concept of well-founded fear in relation to possible future risks of Convention related harm.
40 In the result, the Federal Magistrate said his mind had been swayed by the last sentence of [54] of the Tribunal's reasoning, which revealed that the Tribunal was aware that it had to assess whether all the evidence persuaded it as to the existence of a "real chance that the applicant will suffer persecution for a Convention reason either now or in the reasonably foreseeable future if he returns to his country". His Honour was not persuaded that this reasoning was not an integral and concluding part of the Tribunal's actual thought processes. He considered, at [18], that it sufficiently suggested that the Tribunal's reasoning was not affected by any error of law in relation to its appreciation of the real chance test. Nor in its application of the history and evidence given by the appellant and his witness.
41 I am of a like mind to his Honour, the Federal Magistrate, and indeed Justice Jagot, in observing that the reasoning of the Tribunal and the terms of the opening question posed by the Tribunal for itself in the first sentence of [52] were not "reassuring". As noted, they are the words that counsel for the appellant first draws attention to on this appeal and which are repeated in part in [54]. The point is that the real chance test does not require the Tribunal to decide whether "the applicant cannot get protection in his country" in respect of the harm he fears when he returns to his country. The question is whether there is "real chance" that the protection may not be available, the concept of real chance being that explained in some detail in the passage from Guo's case which I have set out above. What appears to have happened in this case, is that the Tribunal member commenced the analysis of the appellant's claims on the basis that the appellant had received a simple but serious threat from his son‑in‑law because the appellant had informed authorities in Australia and effectively in Lebanon about the son‑in‑law's alleged criminal activities. That, on the face of it, appeared to be a credible threat of serious harm but one, as the Minister's delegate had initially described it, that was "private and criminal in nature" and not related to any of the criteria enumerated in the Refugees Convention.
42 The Tribunal member put that proposition squarely and fairly to the appellant in the course of the hearing in the Tribunal, as the transcript of the hearing shows. It was by reason of doing so that the appellant had occasion to emphasise to the Tribunal - in the passage set out in some detail above, at [37] of the Tribunal's reasons - that he particularly feared harm because of political opinion or because of a membership of a particular social group. The political opinion fear was plainly imputed political opinion, which both parties here fully accept may be relevant in a particular case, having regard, for example, to the preparedness of a person to ensure that the law is observed; or because of membership of a particular social group, in that he or she might be harmed by virtue of being a supporter of a political group that competes with another such group. It is clear to me that, in [52], the Tribunal was alert to the nature of the appellant's fears and the basis expressed for them. In the second sentence of [52], the Tribunal expressly notes the appellant's claims that he cannot get protection from the harm he fears in Lebanon because the son‑in‑law is backed by the Syrians, Hezbollah and terrorists in his country and he, himself, supports the Lebanese Government.
43 It is important to note that the Tribunal, in [52], expressly rejected this claim when it found:
The Tribunal does not accept as plausible that the applicant cannot get protection from harm in his country for a Convention reason, including because of his political opinion, imputed political opinion or because he is a member of a particular social group.
In [52], following this finding, the Tribunal set out three primary reasons for it:
· Although the applicant said he did not claim protection in his country from the threats he received, he had never had "any difficulties" with the Lebanese Government.
· The Lebanese authorities in fact took action and arrested the son‑in‑law in Lebanon according to the applicant's oral evidence.
· Although the applicant said the son‑in‑law was acquitted because of his political connections, he also said that the son‑in‑law obtained bail indicating that the legal proceedings were continuing and he did not know if the son‑in‑law was acquitted.
44 As to the latter point, as noted above, and as emphasised by counsel for the appellant, the Tribunal proceeded to remark in the last sentence of [52], that the appellant's evidence did not enable it to conclude that the son‑in‑law was acquitted or did not face the consequences of his criminal conduct because of his political affiliations. That statement by the Tribunal is in a sentence that seems to stand for two separate, disjunctive propositions, the second being that the appellant's evidence before the Tribunal did not enable it to conclude "that the applicant cannot get the protection from Lebanese authorities because of his own political opinion, his imputed political opinion or because he is a member of a particular social group".
45 Like the Federal Magistrate, I accept that the expression of its reasons in [52] may suggest that the Tribunal member applied a test more onerous or demanding than the "real chance" test when it came to considering whether, in the light of the fear expressed by the appellant and the basis for it, he could count on protection from Lebanese authorities, having regard to his imputed political opinion or because he was a member of a particular social group.
46 However, elsewhere in the reasons there are clear indications that the Tribunal member fully appreciated the requirements of the real chance test. First, there is the general statement of principles found in [15] of the Tribunal's reasons for decision. As noted above, the Tribunal member there plainly stated that a fear is well founded if there is a genuine fear founded upon a "real chance" of persecution for a Convention stipulated reason; and that a fear is well founded where there is a "real substantial basis" for it, but not if it is merely assumed or based on mere speculation. The member also noted that a real chance is not one that is remote or insubstantial or a far fetched possibility and that a person can have a well founded fear even though the possibility of persecution occurring is well below 50%.
47 Secondly, at [44], the Tribunal noted that the Tribunal must determine whether the applicant before it "has a genuine fear founded upon a real chance of persecution for a Convention reason if he returns to his country". This paragraph again reflects the statement of principle earlier made in [15], but in a context going beyond the "template" statement of principle.
48 And, as the Federal Magistrate noted, the use of the "real chance" test is again adverted to in [54], albeit that this follows the analysis of the availability of protection from harm in [52]. In [54] the Tribunal relevantly summed up its view that "the evidence does not establish that there is a real chance that the applicant will suffer persecution for a Convention reason, either now or in the reasonably foreseeable future if he returns to his country".
49 What one looks for, in perusing reasons of the Tribunal such as those under scrutiny here, is some more detailed analysis of why on the "real chance" test (properly understood) there is no real chance of persecution now or upon return to the country of origin, taking into account the availability of state protection.
50 In this regard, as noted above, the Tribunal in [52] sets out three reasons for its views that there is no "plausible" case. The Tribunal adverted to the fact that when the appellant had returned to Lebanon he had not made any claim for protection in Lebanon in respect of the threats he received. He had also never had any "difficulties" with the Lebanese Government. This all serves to inform the finding that the claims of the appellant in this regard were not "plausible", as the Tribunal put it in the opening part of the third sentence of [52]. Similarly, supportive of its finding, the Tribunal pointed to the fact that the Lebanese authorities in fact took action and arrested the son‑in‑law in Lebanon, following the appellant's information coming to hand.
51 Counsel for the appellant, as previously noted, however, draws particular attention to the reasoning of the member of the Tribunal in relation to what follows the identification of these reasons, concerning the arrest, bail and/or acquittal or termination of criminal proceedings against the son‑in‑law. Counsel contends this third reason and the subsequent discussion of it are critical to the Tribunal's reasoning process and betray a misapplication of the real chance test.
52 In the highlighted passage, the Tribunal found that the "applicant's evidence … does not enable it [the Tribunal] to conclude that the son‑in‑law was acquitted or did not face the consequences of his criminal conduct because of his political affiliations". In context in [52], this passage provides some qualification to the preceding sentence of [52] in which the Tribunal noted that although the appellant said that the son‑in‑law was acquitted because of his political connections, he had additionally said that the son‑in‑law had "obtained bail" indicating that the legal proceedings were continuing and that he did not know if the son‑in‑law was acquitted.
53 I do not think that the Tribunal was in the passage highlighted, or those passages taken as a whole was doing anything more than stating the state of the appellant's evidence. Certainly, I do not consider the Tribunal was thereby reformulating the real chance test into a test more demanding than the real chance test, by in effect requiring the appellant to prove that the son‑in‑law had not been acquitted or that the legal proceedings were not continuing before the Tribunal could consider the state protection point to be relevant. The facts were as they fell out in the hearing, and I take the Tribunal in this passage simply to be observing those facts or rather the appellant's own account of relevant events. There was no other evidence adduced on behalf of the Minister or the appellant as to precisely what had happened in these apparent criminal proceedings against the son‑in‑law in Lebanon. The evidence given by the appellant, while by no means evincing complete understanding of what had happened in those proceedings, indicated that he understood that the son‑in‑law had been bailed, at the very least, but that he may possibly have been acquitted, or that the proceedings may no longer be current. It was enough for the appellant to complain of the fact that, according to the son‑in‑law, he had obtained bail in the first instance, and was free in the community because he had, to use a hackneyed expression, "friends in high places", including a battalion of seven lawyers to assist him. All that material was before the Tribunal and it plainly had regard to it. In my view, it simply took the evidence as it found it and it accurately recounted what the appellant had told it. I do not believe that it can be said, in these circumstances, that the Tribunal thereby found against the appellant because he had failed to prove that his son‑in‑law had actually been acquitted in those criminal proceedings.
54 In the end, the Tribunal plainly was aware of the substance of the real chance test and its purpose. In [54], it finally came to the view that there was, to use the Tribunal's expression, "no plausible evidence" before it to show that the appellant had suffered, or would suffer in the reasonably foreseeable future persecution in his country, "or that he cannot get protection from harm in his country" because of his imputed political opinion, or because he was a member of a particular social or for any other Convention reason. The Tribunal made it clear in [54], that "the evidence has not established that there is a real chance" that the appellant will suffer persecution either now or in the reasonably foreseeable future if he returns to his country. The proper inference to be made, having regard to the whole of the reasoning process in the Tribunal, is that the Tribunal was also not satisfied that there was a real substantial basis for the appellant's expressed fear that state protection would not be available to him should he return to Lebanon. That, I consider, was the finding of fact made by the Tribunal.
55 Therefore I do not consider that this is a case, such as Salim Saliba v Minister for Immigration (1998) 159 ALR 247 (Salim Saliba), at 257, where the Court (Sackville J) considered that the Tribunal, on the facts disclosed, did not address an issue of significance or did not address such an issue properly.
56 Although the written analysis of the Tribunal might have been more structured, when read fairly I consider that not only did the Tribunal find that there was no well‑founded fear that the appellant would be persecuted for a Convention based reason (particularly imputed political beliefs advanced by the appellant in response to the issue being raised expressly by the Tribunal member), but that the Tribunal also found, on the evidence before it, there was no "real chance" of denial of state protection for imputed political belief or membership of a social group (or for any other Convention reason) should the appellant return to Lebanon.
57 For these reasons the first ground of the appeal should be dismissed.