Probative value is said to mean the extent to which the evidence could rationally affect the assessment of the probability of the existence of a fact in issue.
In my opinion, the amount of activity over many hours together at a barbecue that included quite an amount of drinking and, no doubt, food, utensils and other objects being passed around amongst a relatively small group of people is relevant to assessing the DNA evidence in the circumstances of this case. In addition, the obviously very forceful struggle involving three men, including the [respondent] being required to hold [MA] down must necessarily have involved a high degree of risk of likely transference of DNA.
This leaves aside the inevitable greetings that pass between people at a barbecue and what even a simply [sic] handshake can do in terms of transference of DNA, particularly in hot conditions where people are likely to be sweating. I note the time of the year involved and while I have no evidence about the weather it is clearly the height of summer in Melbourne.
If evidence is admissible then clearly it is a matter for a jury to assess the weight to be given to it if any. However, an assessment of probative value does require me to make some assessment of the weight that a jury could, acting reasonably, give to that evidence. I am obliged to assess what probative value the jury could assign to the evidence against which must be balanced the risk that the jury will give the evidence disproportionate weight. I must accept that the evidence is truthful, but it must still be assessed in the way I have described.
A number of matters traversed in cross-examination together with the written documents do raise issues with respect to such an analysis of just how probative this DNA evidence really is.
In the end in my opinion the DNA evidence does have probative value, but it is quite limited.
What is then required is the balancing exercise between the probative value and whether it is outweighed by the danger of unfair prejudice to the [respondent]. This involves a need to assess amongst other things the risk that notwithstanding appropriate warnings the jury may attach greater weight to the evidence than it should receive. I need to assess the risk notwithstanding appropriate jury directions and warnings.
The onus is on the [respondent] to satisfy the court that the probative value is outweighed by the danger of unfair prejudice. In my view that onus has been discharged.
I am satisfied that in all the circumstances of this case there is a real risk this evidence will be misused in some unfair way. There is a danger the jury may misjudge the weight to be given to it or engage in an illegitimate form or reasoning.
Section 137 is mandatory and in all the circumstances it compels me to refuse to admit the DNA evidence.
It is not really necessary to discuss s 135 at length and its discretionary language. Less there is any doubt about the matter though, absent s 137 and its mandatory terms, I would have refused to admit the DNA evidence pursuant to s 135. In my view the probative value is substantially outweighed by the danger that the evidence might be unfairly prejudicial to the [respondent] as well as being to an extent misleading and confusing to a jury.