Late September 2013
466 On 24 September 2013, Mr Wood received the FY14 August financial report Board pack for comment. The pack contained the following financial performance highlights:
• Group NPAT of $14.9m below budget by $14.2m. Favourable FX impact of $0.7m with underlying performance below budget by $14.9m.
• NPAT variance due to higher costs associated with the IOL ATM project and other projects in Cord, Calgary and Edmonton ($20.1m) and lower than expected performance in South Africe [sic] ($3.0m)
• All CSG's are below budget; Hydrocarbons (-$15.7m) due to IOL ATM, Infrastructure (-$3.8m) due to lower volumes in Australia South and lower utilisation and charge out rates for Evans & Peck, and MM&C (-$2.0m) due to lower chargeable hours and increased provisions for Australia North and due to demobilisation and slow ramp up on Vale projects in South Africa
• Group EBIT of $37.4m below budget by 30%.
• Group EBIT margin of 3% below budget of 4.3%.
467 The slide for Hydrocarbons noted:
• Year to date EBIT of $73.3m, $15.7m below budget and $20.7m below prior year.
468 The following extract from the August 2013 outlook is set out at the bottom of the slide:
Continued growth of the US gas, downstream and petrochemicals market, opportunities in Norway and in the developing world. Potential market slowdown in Australia expected to be offset by continued global growth. Expected medium to long-term growth resulting from global diversification and ongoing strengthening of customer relations. We expect improved earnings in the Hydrocarbons sector in FY2014.
469 The FY14 August financial report ExCo pack reviewed analyst coverage of WOR, including a comparison of the FY14 budget variance to the analyst "consensus". One point made is:
• FY14 internal forecast NPAT of $352.1m is $12.5m or 3.5% below the average analyst estimate of $364.6m
470 ExCo met on 25 September 2013. The minutes record the following:
5.0 Finance
Simon discussed the August FY14 Finance Report with ExCo.
He noted that the August results were greatly affected by the ATM project in Canada. The cost to complete has increased and claims of $33.5 million have been prepared.
Other comments:
• A 2+10 forecast will be prepared for a market update at the AGM.
• Global support costs are $4 million under budget but some is timing
• WIP conversion is an issue, particularly in Canada
• Jirau and Skanska change orders could have an impact on the forecast if they are resolved by December
• We have a claim on MMX however there is uncertainty of how it will progress given the change in ownership of the customer
6.0 Operations update
Stuart provided a quick update of the Operations group:
1. ANZ - generally in good shape and there could be upside. The suspension of the MAK project due to lack of payment will have an effect.
2. ASCH - Brunei work has been reduced by Shell - we will need to let go approximately 100 people. China is okay although the chemicals market is flat - HVE is on budget. RWP is going well although the 100% Malaysian business is not.
3. AME - UAE has a low workload but other locations are okay. We still have issues in Saudi getting our entity in place.
4. EUR - going well although greater workload is required in UK. Holland is good on the back of Southstream and Kazakhstan good due to TCO.
5. SSA - some movement in Angola on visas. Nigeria - some challenges on Egina execution. South Africa - workload challenges - rationalisation of outlying offices (sale considered) - VOC contract issues - market conditions are generally not good.
6. LAM - many issues largely due to poor market conditions in M&M affecting Chile and Peru. Brazil needs to replace MMX with a major win.
7.. USAC - overall is fine. South West ops are overachieving, East is on track and West is improving.
8. Canada - is going well, other than ATM.
Stuart advised that on signing the Shell UCOG contract there was a positive deliver-focused session with Shell which discussed how it can be improved. It was agreed to hold both WP and Shell people on site jointly accountable.
We need to do similar for Chevron and BP - we need to engage our customers on deliver and agree how improvement will be achieved.
471 On 27 September 2013, a first draft of the FY14 2+10 group forecast slide pack became available. The Executive Summary contained the following financial highlights:
• As presented and approved at the August 2013 Board meeting the FY14 budget is an operational EBIT of $1,030.1m and global overheads of $437.9m resulting in a FY14 Group EBIT of $592.2m reflecting a 12.4% growth from FY13 EBIT of $527m.
• The 2+10 forecast NPAT is $333.0m, $19m below the budget of $352.1m, representing growth of 3.4% against FY13 compared to 9.3% growth in the budget.
• Total operational EBIT was reduced in the 2+10 forecast in three key locations within Canada due to higher costs associated with IOL ATM and Husky Sunrise which has impacted Cord (-$4.2m), Calgary (-$7.4m) and Edmonton -$2.9m). Other locations forecasting lower than FY14 budget include Brunei (-$3.6m), South Africa (-$3.4m), Chile (-$2.3m), Malaysia (-$2.3m), Saudi Arabai (-$2.0m) and Bulgaria (-$2.0m), offset by an increase of $1.7m in Eastern Canada and $1.0m in Malaysia RWP. All other locations remain materially in line with budget for total EBIT.
• Group EBIT HOH split is forecast to be 37:63 across the year, compared to a budget split of 41:59 (FY13 split 48:52). H1 NPAT, is forecast to be $120.2m, a decrease of $34.9m from the prior year and a decrease of $24.8m from the FY14 budget.
472 The draft pack included a sensitivity analysis, marked "DRAFT - awaiting further info". It shows an NPAT range of $290.2 to $339.4 million with a base of $321.9 million. The sensitivity analysis was revised at least twice before it was finalised. Mr Wood confirmed that the sensitivity analyses did not involve a reassessment of blue sky in the budget.
473 Mr Crowley submitted that an operational analysis in the draft pack showed that WOR was not turning blue sky or other unsecured work into revenue in the amounts budgeted, but did not explain the basis for this interpretation. A bullet point on the relevant slide stated:
• Key proposals secured since the FY14 budget include Enbridge - Surmont in Cord (GM +$3.9m), NWR - Tank Farm in US Eastern Ops (GM +$3.6m), Appamatox project for Shell in Southwest Ops (GM +$1.1m) and the HH1 Rasgas Flow assurance project in Malaysia (GM +$1.2m). Key unsuccessful proposals to date are the 3A Wellpads for MEG Energy (GM $5.2m), additional work for Enbridge in Cord (GM $5.4m) and Lukoil Gissar in Malaysia RWP (GM $1.6m).
474 Mr Crowley noted that the draft pack was sent to Mr Allen by Ms McIernon with the following note:
3. FX scenario was run using the Spot rate as at 20th September which resulted in an FX loss of $6.3m at NPAT level versus the budget rates.
475 Mr Crowley submitted that this calculation meant that more than half of the foreign exchange hedge (rebadged as "operational contingency") had been "consumed" only two months into the new financial year. The evidence did not identify relevant standards for accounting for foreign exchange.
476 The Board pack for the 2+10 group forecast was distributed on 4 October 2013. Mr Crowley noted the following aspects of the forecast:
(1) One of the "financial highlights" was:
• HOH split is forecast to be 36:64 across the year, compared to a budget split of 41:59 (FY13 split 48:52). H1 NPAT is forecast to be $120.2m, a decrease of $34.9m from the prior year and a decrease of $24.8 from the FY14 budget.
However, the slide headed "FY14 Half on Half Analysis" shows a split of 34:66.
(2) In the sensitivity analysis, the NPAT range was $324.8 to $382.6 million with a base of $352 million. The downside risks were $33 million. Mr Crowley noted that this figure was $52.9 million in the previous draft. He says that there was no explanation for the removal of the following items (which totalled $19.9 million) from the downside risks:
• Saudi Arabia: costs to meet the requirements of GES+ contract and delays
• UAE: Iraq not converting proposals/Loss of Shaheen and Shell Majnoon projects
• US Eastern Ops - low level of secured work
• Chile - low level of secured work and restructuring
• Bulgaria - Belene uncertainty
• FX - Group EBIT (Rates 20.09.13)
An amount for "FX - Group EBIT (Rates 20.09.13)" is in the base case calculation of the final sensitivity analysis, which would appear to explain the removal of that item from the "low" calculation.
(3) The base case includes an "operational contingency" of $16.1 million and $3.0 million for restructuring, having the effect that all contingencies had been deployed - just two months into the year - to bring the "base" case from $333 million (in the first draft of the 2+10 forecast) to the original forecast figure of $352 million.
477 Mr Wood agreed that an "apples with apples" comparison would be between the $352 million in the approved budget and the $333 million figure, that is, the NPAT figure prior to the release of contingencies. Mr Wood also accepted that, as at the time of the 2+10 forecast, currency movements had had an adverse impact of $3.3 million to the NPAT line. Mr Wood also accepted that, if WOR's operational performance was as forecast and the only thing that changed was a movement in foreign exchange that was less favourable to the NPAT line, the effect of that single change would be to "wipe out the $16.1 million contingency".
478 Based on this evidence, Mr Crowley contended (contrary to Mr Wood's position) that the "operational contingency" ought fairly be regarded as a foreign exchange contingency. Further, Mr Crowley contended that by early October 2013 the intervening foreign exchange movements indicated it was unlikely to be released to rescue the NPAT result. I do not accept Mr Crowley's contention because there was no legal or practical reason why the contingency could only be released in response to foreign exchange movements, and the evidence does not justify a conclusion that there would be unfavourable foreign exchange movements to "wipe out the $16.1 million contingency".
479 Next, Mr Crowley contended that, by late September 2013, or at least 3 or 4 October 2013, the grounds on which WOR had constructed the original FY14 budget had, in important respects, fallen away. On an "apples for apples" comparison, the original budget forecast of $352 million had been restated internally at $333 million. WOR was making up the shortfall, as a matter of its internal projections, by:
(1) assuming that it was going to achieve in 1 January to 30 June 2014 (2H14) the second half of FY14 twice the earnings it was expecting in 1 July to 31 December 2013 (1H14), that is, WOR had adjusted its phasing assumptions (despite the attention given to accurate phasing assumptions in the original budget);
(2) initiating, or significantly enlarging and accelerating, a major redundancy program (the EBIT Improvement Program); and
(3) shifting the group-level contingencies (for foreign exchange, tax and restructuring costs) into assumed components of the NPAT forecast, from their former position as potential additions to the forecast.
480 Thus, Mr Crowley submitted, by late September 2013 (or at the latest, by 4 October 2013), WOR had "relinquished" significant elements of the grounds for its August 2013 earnings guidance statement. Mr Crowley submitted that, in the circumstances, ExCo and the Board knew, or at least ought reasonably to have recognised, that absent the very different assumptions listed in the preceding paragraph, WOR was likely to fall materially short of the guidance it had promoted, of FY14 NPAT around $352 million. In particular, Mr Crowley noted:
(1) If the phasing had been held at the budget rate of 41:59, then the 1H14 result of $120.9 million would translate to a FY14 NPAT of 120.9:173.98 and totalling $294.88 million. If the FY13 split of 48:52 is used instead, then the figures become 120.9:130.98 with a total FY14 NPAT of $251.88 million.
(2) the EBIT Improvement Program by late October 2013 was hoped to contribute $38 million NPAT, implying a shortfall of a similar amount in the early October 2013 expectations; and
(3) the group-level contingencies comprised at least $16.1 million foreign exchange and $7.5 million tax, totalling $23.6 million EBIT and implying a corresponding shortfall in the expectations reflected in the original budget.
481 However, Mr Crowley contended:
(1) Market conditions did not justify the assumption that 2H14 earnings would be twice those of 1H14;
(2) the EBIT Improvement Program was still too inchoate to constitute a reliable component for NPAT guidance, and in any event the savings derived from a redundancy program were qualitatively different from the increased revenues implied by the forecast of "underlying growth"; and
(3) the recent history of foreign exchange movements did not support that contingency being assumed as a contributor to NPAT, for the purposes of a market guidance.
482 As to 481, in cross-examination, Mr Wood agreed that the 2+10 showed a "fairly significant movement in the phasing split, five per cent each way, occurring two months into the new financial year". However, Mr Wood said that the movement was explicable as follows:
[W]hat you've got is a single item. One's - in fact, you've got two items. We've got a cost, a single one-off cost coming in from one project in Canada, 20-odd million, and to compensate for it - so that's in the first half. That's - so all of that is going to go in the first half. So to compensate for it, we're releasing contingency, and of course, the contingency gets released in the second half. So effectively, yes, you've got a 50 million split on - as a result of one item. The rest of the business and the phasing for the rest of the business remains unaltered, but, as you quite rightly point out, it is a significant shift early in the year.
483 Subsequently, Mr Armstrong QC asked Mr Wood's several questions directed to the FY14 HOH analysis in the FY14 2+10 group forecast slide pack. Mr Armstrong QC returned to the movement in the phasing split and Mr Wood essentially repeated the evidence set out above. The relevant question and answer were as follows:
Mr Armstrong QC: And now two months into the new year, there has been a five per cent movement each way on the phasing forecast. It has gone from 41 to 59, to a new forecast of 36 to 64 after, really, only a very small part of the new year, hasn't it?
Mr Wood: It has and, as we talked about yesterday, it results from - from specific items. ATM coming into the first half and the costs driving up in the first half and, therefore, a release of contingency and an expectation of - of further reduction in overheads in the second half, causing that swing, effectively, without the knowledge of the - of the 3+9, the other - there were - the - the phasings for the rest of the business remained unaltered, as far as we were aware.
484 Mr Armstrong QC asked more questions on this topic but did not demonstrate that Mr Wood's evidence should not be accepted. Mr Wood was not asked to address the proposition in 481 in cross-examination.
485 Having regard to Mr Wood's evidence, I am not persuaded that market conditions were required to justify WOR's phasing assumptions. Nor do I accept, without more evidence, either that the EBIT Improvement Program required further development to support WOR's forecast or that WOR's forecast should have taken account of the recent history of foreign exchange movements, in the absence of evidence
486 Mr Crowley contended that "several vectors triangulate around the $284m estimate" (posited by his counterfactual budget forecast) by late September or early October 2013, namely:
(1) It is roughly equivalent to the FY14 estimates produced by subjecting the 1H forecast in the 2+10 to the original FY14 budget's phasing split.
(2) It is roughly equivalent to the FY14 estimates produced by subjecting the 1H14 forecast in the 2+10 to the FY13 phasing split, and adjusting for forex movements.
(3) It is roughly equivalent to the FY14 forecast in the 2+10 ($333 million), reduced by the apparent value of the concerns that led to the EBIT Improvement Program (ultimately $38 million) and reduced further by re-excluding the contingencies.
(4) As was also the case in August 2013, a forecast in the vicinity of $284 million was roughly equivalent to the NPAT estimated in the May 2013 detailed budget submissions, adjusted for foreign exchange, and is roughly the midpoint of the range that the company eventually adopted when, in November 2013, it did undertake a "very critical look" at the blue sky forecasts, and applied a "risk based analysis" to its projections.
487 Assuming the factual accuracy of this analysis, it is not persuasive. In particular, the evidence does not demonstrate that the calculations are sufficiently meaningful to call into doubt the FY14 guidance representation in late September or early October 2013.