45Predicted long-term carbon stock and project emissions in a CEA

45  Predicted long-term carbon stock and project emissions in a CEA

Note: The predicted long-term average carbon stock or long-term project scenario carbon stock is re-calculated for each offsets report. It can change slightly as the long-term project scenario simulation will replace predicted events with actual events for the time since the last simulation.

Predicted long-term average carbon stock for a new plantation CEA, conversion CEA or a continuing plantation CEA

 (1) If the ith CEA of the project is a new plantation CEA, a conversion CEA or a continuing plantation CEA, the predicted long-term average carbon stock must be calculated in accordance with subsection (2).

 (2) The predicted long-term average project carbon stock for the modelling period for the ith CEA (View image in the official source) (in tonnes CO2‑e) is calculated using the following equation:

| View image in the official source | Equation 8 |

View image in the official source is the predicted C mass in forest debris (in tonnes C per hectare) for the ith CEA in the kth month since the modelling start date—from the long-term project scenario simulation.

View image in the official source is the predicted C mass of trees (in tonnes C per hectare) for the ith CEA in the kth month since the modelling start date—from the long-term project scenario simulation.

View image in the official sourceis the predicted C mass in forest products (in tonnes C per hectare) for the ith CEA in the kth month since the modelling start date—from the long‑term project scenario simulation.

Predicted long-term project scenario carbon stock for an ex-plantation CEA

 (3) If the ith CEA of the project is an ex-plantation CEA, the predicted long-term project scenario carbon stock must be calculated in accordance with subsection (4).

 (4) The predicted long-term project scenario carbon stock for the modelling period for the ith CEA (View image in the official source) (in tonnes CO2‑e) is calculated using the following equation:

| View image in the official source | Equation 9 |

View image in the official source is the predicted C mass in forest debris (in tonnes C per hectare) for the ith CEA at the end of the modelling period—from the long-term project scenario simulation.

View image in the official source is the predicted C mass of trees (in tonnes C per hectare) for the ith CEA at the end of the modelling period—from the long-term project scenario simulation.

View image in the official sourceis the predicted C mass in forest products (in tonnes C per hectare) for the ith CEA at the end of the modelling period—from the long‑term project scenario simulation.

Emissions from biomass burning for long‑term project scenario simulation

 (5) The emissions for the modelling period from biomass burning for the ith CEA (EP,Fire,i) (in tonnes CO2‑e) is calculated using the following equation:

| View image in the official source | Equation 10 |

View image in the official source represents a number of months, and is equal to:

 (a) for a new plantation CEA, a conversion CEA or a continuing plantation CEA—1,200; and

 (b) for an ex-plantation CEA—the 300 months in the crediting period.

View image in the official source is the global warming potential for greenhouse gas View image in the official source, as specified in the NGER Regulations as in force from time to time.

View image in the official source is the mass of greenhouse gas View image in the official source (in tonnes per hectare) emitted due to biomass burning in the ith CEA in the kth month since the modelling start date from the long‑term project scenario simulation.

Predicted emissions from fuel used to harvest for long‑term project scenario simulation

 (6) Predicted fuel emissions for the project for the ith CEA for the modelling period (EP,Fuel,i) (in tonnes CO2‑e) are calculated using the following equation:

| View image in the official source | Equation 11 |

H is the number of harvest events in the modelling period—from the long‑term scenario simulation

View image in the official sourceis:

 (b) otherwise—the predicted C mass of forest products from harvest event h in the modelling period in the ith CEA (in tonnes C per hectare)—from equation 12.

 (7) For paragraph (b) of the definition of CHarv,i,h in subsection (6), the equation is:

| View image in the official source | Equation 12 |

k is the month of the modelling period in which harvest event h occurred—from the long‑term project scenario simulation.

CFP,i,k is the predicted mass of forest products (in tonnes C per hectare) for the ith CEA and for the kth month since the modelling start date—from the long-term project scenario simulation.

CFP,i,k – 1 is:

 (a) for the first month of the modelling period (k = 1)—zero; and

 (b) for subsequent months (k  2)—the predicted mass of forest  products (in tonnes C per hectare) for the ith CEA and for the (k – 1)th month since the modelling start date—from the long-term project scenario simulation.