41Modelling baseline scenario

41  Modelling baseline scenario 

 (1) The baseline scenario simulation for a conversion CEA at a particular time (either the forest start date or the end of a reporting period) is the FullCAM simulation that:

 (c) subject to subsection (4), simulates:

 (i) the management actions of the default baseline management regime, recurring with a period of 12 months between rotations; and

 (ii) any natural disturbance recorded in the management record of the forest management plan as at the time of the simulation, at the time that it occurred.

Note 1: The simulation does not model any management actions between rotations.

Note 2: For subparagraph (c)(ii), the simulation models only natural disturbances at the times that they actually occurred. Disturbance events are not modelled as recurring in future rotations.

 (2) The baseline scenario simulation for a continuing plantation CEA at a particular time (either the forest start date or the end of a reporting period) is the FullCAM simulation that:

 (a) begins on the day before the baseline rotation start date; and

 (b) ends 100 years after the harvest event described in subparagraph (2)(c)(ii); and

 (c) subject to subsection (4) simulates:

 (i) the actions undertaken between the baseline rotation start date and the eligibility date; and

 (ii) a single harvest event, undertaken at a time before the eligibility date, or no more than 24 months after the eligibility date; and

 (iii) no subsequent planting, seeding or coppicing events.

 (3) The baseline scenario simulation for an ex-plantation CEA at a particular time (either the forest start date or the end of a reporting period) is the FullCAM simulation that:

 (a) begins on the day before the baseline rotation start date; and

 (c) subject to subsection (4) simulates:

 (i) the actions undertaken between the baseline rotation start date and the eligibility date; and

 (ii) a single harvest event, undertaken at a time before the eligibility date, or no more than 24 months after the eligibility date; and

 (iii) no subsequent planting, seeding or coppicing events.

 (4) If a natural disturbance modelled in the simulation occurs at such a time in the rotation and is of such a character that it is reasonable to conclude that in practice it would result in an early end to the rotation, the simulation must include that early end.

 (5) For subsection (4), only a thinning without harvest is able to be modelled to end the rotation. The project proponent is not able to model a salvage harvest following the natural disturbance.