31Regression baseline emissions model requirements

31  Regression baseline emissions model requirements

(1)    A baseline emissions model for an implementation that is a regression baseline emissions model must be developed using statistical regression modelling to relate relevant variables to the baseline emissions for the implementation.

Note:  Baseline emissions is the dependent variable in the regression baseline emissions model.

 (2) The values of the relevant variables and baseline emissions used in the regression analysis to develop the model must be values from measurement time intervals in the baseline measurement period in which:

 (a) static factors for the implementation are at their normal values; and

 (b) no values of the relevant variables are outliers (as identified using standard statistical tests and approaches).

 (3) The value of the baseline emissions for a measurement time interval used to develop the baseline emissions model is the value of total measured baseline emissions for the implementation worked out under section 53.             

 (4) The regression baseline emissions model for an implementation may use linear or non-linear functions of a relevant variable.

 (5) The modelled relationship between the baseline emissions and the relevant variables for the model must not be disproportionately affected by a small number of high leverage data points (worked out using standard statistical tests and approaches).             

 (6) This section applies to a transferring IEFE project only for reporting periods that end after the transfer date.