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Division Div 5 - Carbon Credits (Carbon Farming Initiative—Estimation of Soil Organic Carbon Sequestration Using Measurement and Models) Methodology Determination 2021 - sets out that change in soil organic carbon in a CEA for a reporting period must be worked out between the first estimation event in the CEA and the last estimation event in the reporting period for a CEA. The difference is conservatively estimated by applying a specified probability of exceedance estimation based on the difference between the mean of the soil organic carbon stock at the first estimation event and the mean of the soil organic carbon stock at the last estimation event in the reporting period. The probability of exceedance approach uses the variance of each estimate and its degrees of freedom (based on the number of samples taken), and a statistical confidence level set out in the Supplement (alpha value for the students t-test) to ensure the estimate of the change that has occurred in the CEA is conservative. | Zoe