1.1.1.2 Was the Tribunal required to proceed on the assumption that the "away without official leave hypothesis" was true?
39 The first ground of appeal centres on whether the primary judge correctly held at [31] that the "away without official leave hypothesis" was a claimed past event, the truth or falsity of which the Tribunal could lawfully find was unnecessary to assess.
40 The appellant submits in line with Rajalingam that the Tribunal was required to take into account the possibility that the claimed past events comprising the hypothesis had occurred in assessing whether he had a well-founded fear of persecution if returned, i.e., that he had rejoined SA1, was still serving within it when he departed, and had left without the permission or knowledge of SA1. First, the appellant submitted that the Tribunal was plainly uncertain as to the truth of those matters. No issue was taken with this proposition which was clear from the face of the decision. Secondly, the appellant submitted that those matters were crucial to his Asserted Claim. As to the second proposition, the appellant submitted that, once the possibility that the event comprising the hypothesis is taken into account, the Tribunal was confronted with an applicant who left his country of nationality when a senior serving officer of SA1 in [X year] and has remained abroad ever since without explanation for a period of more than 18 months by the time of the Tribunal's decision - a scenario which may well have led to a different outcome.
41 Despite, however, its potential significance to his claims, the appellant submits that that claim was not addressed by the Tribunal. As such, he submits that the Tribunal erred in a jurisdictional sense in failing to consider a scenario that justified his claim that his country of nationality would consider him to be either a failed asylum seeker, a spy or someone with opinions opposed to the regime.
42 I agree with these submissions.
43 First, at [50] the Tribunal set out its reasons by a series of dot points as to why it was "satisfied that there was no restriction on the applicant's departure from [the country of nationality] in [X year]", [X year] being a reference to the year of his departure. Consistently with this umbrella paragraph, the Tribunal considered relevantly whether there was a well-founded fear of persecution only at that time in the critical passage in the third dot point of [50] where it found that:
I am unable to establish with confidence what his employment relationship was with [SA1] by [X year]. He has provided a letter from the [division of SA1] indicating that he was employed from [X date] in the [specified] section on a 4 year contact. If this document is genuine it may be that he was halfway through a contract when he left [his country of nationality]. Alternatively the contract may have been terminated prematurely, or he may in fact have been allowed to leave [his country of nationality] as an [SA 1] employee with the knowledge and permission of his employer. I am unable to make a finding on this point, but am not satisfied that when he left [his country of nationality] in [X year] he considered there was any risk to him in doing so, and am not satisfied that there was any such risk.
44 As such, the appellant correctly contends, in my view, that the Tribunal here addressed the question of whether the appellant considered he was at risk in leaving, and whether there was any such risk, only at the time of his departure from his country of nationality. The primary judge at [30] read the passage as limited in the same manner. Yet the Tribunal was required, in line with the principles to which I have referred, to consider the risks to the appellant in the future. Accordingly, in circumstances where the Tribunal was uncertain as to whether the past events comprising the "away without official leave hypothesis" had occurred and given the significance of those events to the appellant's claims, in my view it was required to consider the possibility that the hypothesis was true in order to undertake the required reasonable speculation: Rajalingam at 240 [62] (quoted at [33] above). In this regard, it is one thing to consider whether there is a well-founded fear of persecution where a person is absent without explanation or leave for a period of one month (as the appellant claimed was his intention when he left), and another to consider the risks of persecution after an unexplained absence without leave for over 18 months. The latter was not considered by the Tribunal despite the possibility for the duration of time since departure, when added with the other aspects of the appellant's claim, to affect the assessment of the chance that the feared harm might occur. As a consequence, I consider that the Tribunal failed constructively to exercise its jurisdiction. I do not consider that it is an answer to this to say that the Tribunal must have been aware of the passage of time.
45 Secondly, I do not accept the Minister's submission that any failure to address such a claim or risk is covered by the Tribunal's general findings at [78] and [83] of its reasons. At [78], the Tribunal found, in the context of considering the appellant's claim based upon imputed political opinion by reference to events following his departure, that:
I do not consider that the applicant has a well-founded fear of being persecuted in [his country of nationality] for the Convention reason of political opinion. If he returns to [his country of nationality] he will do so as a person who has a record of long-standing loyalty to the regime. I have not accepted that any material has been located at his home that might change this perception of him.
46 Similarly, after referring to the appellant's confirmation that he feared persecution as a failed asylum seeker for his political views at [80], the Tribunal considered that there was no reason why the appellant should be suspected of having sought asylum in Australia given his background. Specifically, at [83] the Tribunal found that:
I consider this evidence reliable [being evidence as to the risks for known asylum seekers in the country of nationality] but to no reason [sic] why the applicant might be suspected of having sought asylum. The applicant gave evidence that he had had a good life in [his country of nationality]. Has [sic] worked in the [SA1] throughout his professional life. He has never openly expressed any views critical of the state. If he was, as he claims, among a large number of the [SA1] members in [X year] questioned after one of their number expressed concerns about the treatment of protesters and was arrested, he does not claim that that had any ongoing effect on him. He provided written confirmation of his loyalty at the time and that was plainly accepted.
47 In the Minister's submissions, the Tribunal's findings at [78] and [83] "are of sufficient generality to negative the possibility that the Appellant would nevertheless be imputed with an anti-regime political opinion because of his having left [his country of nationality] as this ground suggests". In support of this submission, the Minister relied upon WAEE v Minister for Immigration and Multicultural Affairs [2003] FCAFC 184; (2003) 75 ALD 630 (WAEE) at [47] where the Court (French, Sackville and Hely JJ) held that:
The inference that the Tribunal has failed to consider an issue may be drawn from its failure to expressly deal with that issue in its reasons. But that is an inference not too readily to be drawn where the reasons are otherwise comprehensive and the issue has at least been identified at some point. It may be that it is unnecessary to make a finding on a particular matter because it is subsumed in findings of greater generality or because there is a factual premise upon which a contention rests which has been rejected. Where however there is an issue raised by the evidence advanced on behalf of an applicant and contentions made by the applicant and that issue, if resolved one way, would be dispositive of the Tribunal's review of the delegate's decision, a failure to deal with it in the published reasons may raise a strong inference that it has been overlooked.
48 I do not, however, consider that this is a case where findings on a particular matter have been subsumed into findings of greater generality. The so-called findings of greater generality at [78] and [83] are secondary findings, with the primary facts which form the basis for those findings clearly identified in this instance by the Tribunal. No mention is made, however, of the duration of time which had elapsed since the appellant's departure, nor any consideration of that aspect of his claims against an assumption that the past events in the "away without official leave hypothesis" occurred. In the circumstances of this case, I consider that the appropriate inference to draw is that this significant aspect of the appellant's claims has, with respect, been overlooked by the Tribunal. It follows that the appeal must be allowed on this ground.