The complexity and likely duration of the litigation
117 The proceeding is both factually and legally complex. Counsel's Opinion and a confidential affidavit of Ms Dellavedova set out the intricacies and difficulties of the case in detail. Counsel state that the proceeding is one of the most forensically complex shareholder class actions in which they have been involved.
118 The proceeding concerns the running of a large international insurance business in the USA, which includes various sub-businesses each with its own concepts, practices and terminology, requiring investigation and analysis of a large number of highly technical actuarial and accounting concepts.
119 In a non-confidential affidavit Ms Dellavedova summarises the Amended Statement of Claim (ASOC) in the following terms:
12 In 2013 QBE (and its subsidiaries) conducted business in several different geographic locations, including (relevantly for present purposes) in North America (QBENA). QBENA was one of QBE's largest geographic divisions. QBENA itself comprised several distinct businesses, including (again, relevantly for present purposes):
(a) the Program Business (which wrote various forms of insurance through approximately 150 separate programs);
(b) the Financial Partner Services (or 'FPS') Business (which predominantly wrote lender-placed property insurance (LPI) through relationships with mortgage lenders / servicers); and
(c) the Crop Business (which wrote crop and crop revenue insurance for farmers).
13 On 26 February 2013 QBE published its Annual Report for the year ended 31 December 2012, and also convened a 'Q4 2012 Earnings Call' with various share market analysts. In the Annual Report, in the accompanying ASX announcement, and/or during the 'Q4 2012 Earnings Call', QBE made various statements to the effect that:
(a) the Program Business required an increase of US$316 million to its reserve provision for prior accident year claims, but that QBE had 'undertaken a very extensive review' of its 'entire claims portfolio, with particular emphasis on the U.S.', that it was confident that it had 'done that job as thoroughly and as completely as you could ask', and that for various reasons it had confidence in the appropriateness of its year-end claims provision;
(b) the long-term profitability of the Crop Business was demonstrated by an average combined operating ratio (COR) of 88% over the last ten years, and it saw 'no reason as to why the Crop Business should not return to its long-term average COR of 88% or better in 2013'; and
(c) it saw 'no reason why' it could not achieve a group-wide COR of '92% or better' in 2013, and an insurance margin of 11%.
14 On 20 August 2013 (being the start of the Relevant Period) QBE published its Half-Year Report for the half-year ended 30 June 2013, and also convened a 'Q2 2013 Earnings Call' with various share market analysts. In the Half-Year Report, in the accompanying ASX announcement, and/or during the 'Q2 2013 Earnings Call', QBE made various statements to the effect that:
(a) although there had been some further adverse prior year development since February 2013 in respect of the reserve provisions in the Program Business, it did not 'see a significant prior year issue in the U.S.';
(b) the FPS Business was impacted by various factors, including loan sales by its largest client (Bank of America (BoA)), and was showing a small loss through the half-year, but nevertheless QBE was 'very confident' it could win new banking clients for that business;
(c) the Crop Business was impacted by delayed planting, but the outlook for the remainder of the year was promising, and 'the early indications for the crop portfolio are very good and we're certainly looking at what we believe to be a better than average year';
(d) in respect of QBENA, that 'if you take a step back', the 'specialty businesses should be able to run with a combined operating ratio of less than 90%', and the property and casualty business was one that could 'run in the early 90%s', and therefore QBE believed it could 'get to or around a COR of 90%' for QBENA; and
(e) in respect of QBE's 2013 financial results, it was 'on track' to deliver a group-wide 'full-year target for COR 92% and insurance profit margin 11%', and that the group-wide goodwill balance of US$4,558 million was appropriate.
15 On 6 December 2013 (being the end of the Relevant Period) QBE requested, and was granted, a trading halt by ASX.
16 On 9 December 2013 QBE issued an ASX announcement titled 'QBE increases North American claims provision and writes down North American goodwill, identifiable intangibles and other assets', and also convened a 'Business Update Call' with various share market analysts. In the ASX announcement and/or during the 'Business Update Call', QBE made various statements to the effect that:
(a) it was making an additional provision of US$300 million for prior year claims development in respect of the Program Business (and an additional provision of US$200 million to strengthen risk margins);
(b) it was making a charge of US$150 million for impaired assets and was writing down US$330 million in identifiable intangibles for its FPS Business; further, the FPS Business had been unsuccessful in securing at least one other major banking client, and although it was still a viable business, it would be on a much smaller scale, such that, after 'right-sizing the fixed cost base, QBE now expects this business will break even in 2014 and generate more acceptable returns thereafter';
(c) the Crop Business was reporting higher than expected claims, and QBE was now estimating a COR for that business in 2013 of 99% and lower profit by US$125 million;
(d) in respect of QBENA, it was forecasting a COR of 96% for 2014, which was driven by the fact that the FPS Business would 'run at breakeven level for 2014, no better', and that the Crop Business 'having had two disappointing years, we've taken the decision to move our predicted [COR] … up 3 points from 88% to 91%'; and
(e) it was expecting a group-wide COR for 2013 of 97%-98% and insurance profit margin of around 6%; it was making an impairment charge of US$600 million against goodwill (which was primarily attributable to QBENA); it was expecting to report a net loss after tax of around US$250 million for the year ending 31 December 2013; and it was targeting a COR of 93% and an insurance profit margin of around 10% in 2014.
17 Following the 9 December 2013 ASX announcement and the 'Business Update Call' on the same day, the price of QBE shares fell by approximately:
(a) 22.3% on 9 December 2013 (from a closing price of $15.45 on 6 December 2013 to a closing price of $12.00 on 9 December 2013); and
(b) a further 9.8% on 10 December 2013 (from a closing price of $12.00 on 9 December 2013 to a closing price of $10.82 on 10 December 2013).
18 In the Amended Statement of Claim, the applicant alleges that during the Relevant Period QBE:
(a) was aware of certain material information (as set out more fully in paragraph [19] below), and by failing to disclose that information before 9 December 2013, contravened s 674(2) of the Corporations Act 2001 (Cth) (CA); and
(b) engaged in misleading or deceptive conduct in contravention of ss 1041E and 1041H of the CA, s 12DA of the Australian Securities and Investments Commission Act 2001 (Cth) (ASIC Act) and s 18 of the Australian Consumer Law (as applicable pursuant to the various state Acts listed in paragraph [4(b)] of the Amended Statement of Claim) (ACL) by making certain express or implied representations as to:
(i) its compliance with its continuous disclosure obligations (in light of the matters referred to in sub-paragraph (a) above);
(ii) the adequacy of its provisions in respect of the Program Business as at 20 August 2013;
(iii) the outlook for the FPS Business as at 20 August 2013;
(iv) the expected profitability of the Crop Business, as well as for QBENA and QBE generally, in 2013 and beyond; and
(v) the appropriateness of its goodwill balance of US$4,558 million as at 20 August 2013.
19 The information which the applicant alleges was material, and which QBE knew or ought to have known throughout the Relevant Period, was:
(a) in respect of QBENA, that it was likely, or there was a material risk, that QBE's financial performance, and financial results for 2013, would be adversely affected by the performance of QBENA; and/or that earnings guidance given by QBE in respect of its financial performance, and financial results for 2013, was unreliable;
(b) in respect of the Program Business, that:
(i) it was likely that in the year ending 31 December 2013 QBE would need to make further provisions materially in excess of the provisions already announced prior to the Relevant Period;
(ii) QBE had not completed the remediation of the Program Business, or the process of reviewing the adequacy of reserves for prior year development in the Program Business, and that process may require additional provisions in respect of prior year development; and
(iii) it was likely that earnings guidance given by QBE in respect of its financial performance, and financial results for 2013, was unreliable to the extent it incorporated guidance based on the financial performance of the Program Business without allowing for the matters referred to above;
(c) in respect of the FPS Business, that:
(i) the strategic future of the FPS Business largely depended on whether or not QBE won one particular new customer account, but regardless of whether that account was won or not, the business would not perform better than break-even in 2013 and 2014, and if the particular new customer account was not won, QBE would need to significantly restructure the business to align its cost base with its smaller revenues;
(ii) it was likely that QBE would recognise significant further material impairments to identifiable intangibles associated with the FPS Business and its goodwill associated with QBENA; and
(iii) it was likely that earnings guidance given by QBE in respect of its financial performance, and financial results for 2013, was unreliable to the extent it incorporated guidance based on the financial performance and position of the FPS Business without allowing for the matters referred to above; and
(d) in respect of the Crop Business, that it was likely that:
(i) the business would achieve a COR of 99% or greater in 2013 (and not a COR of 88% or lower), and that such a COR was higher than the COR which would be reasonably expected to be achieved by the Crop Business in an average year, including 2014 (which was 91% and not 88%); and
(ii) the guidance given by QBE was unreliable to the extent it did not make allowance for the above matters.
20 Based on the above matters, the applicant sought:
(a) compensation pursuant to s 1317HA of the CA (arising from QBE's alleged contraventions of s 674(2) of the CA); and
(b) compensation pursuant to s 1041I of the CA, s 12GF of the ASIC Act and s 236 of the ACL (arising from QBE's alleged contraventions of ss 1041E and 1041H of the CA, s 12DA of the ASIC Act and s 18 of the ACL).
120 The proceeding alleges that, at the time that QBE announced to the ASX on 20 August 2013 that it was maintaining its FY13 guidance, it lacked reasonable grounds for so doing because it was aware of information relating to the profitability of three parts of its North American insurance business (QBENA) which ought to have been disclosed. There are four main aspects to the applicant's case.
121 First, as to QBE's "program business" it is alleged that: (a) QBE would likely need to make additional provisions of at least US$225 million for this business; (b) that it had not completed the processes of remediating that business and reviewing the adequacy of reserves and provisions; and (c) that it was likely that earnings guidance given by QBE was unreliable to the extent it incorporated guidance based on the performance of the business without allowing for (a) and (b) (the Program Case).
122 Second, as to QBE's lender placed insurance business (FPS) it is alleged that: (a) the strategic future of the FPS business depended largely on whether it won the JP Morgan Chase customer account, that regardless of whether that account was won FPS would not perform better than break-even in FY13 and FY14, and that if the account was not won the FPS business would need to be significantly restructured; (b) that it was likely QBE would recognise a material impairment charge of at least US$330 million in relation to identified intangibles and a goodwill impairment of at least US$600 million associated with the FPS business; and (c) it was likely that earnings guidance given by QBE was unreliable to the extent it incorporated guidance based on the performance of the FPS business without allowing for (a) and (b) (the FPS Case); and
123 Third, as to QBE's crop insurance business it is alleged that: (a) the crop insurance business would likely achieve a Combined Operating Ratio (COR) of 99% or greater in FY13, that being worse than the COR it would be expected to achieve in an average year (91% - not the 88% QBE had attributed to it); and (b) it was likely that earnings guidance given by QBE was unreliable to the extent it incorporated guidance based on the performance of the crop insurance business without allowing for (a) (the Crop Case).
124 Fourth, these three cases are alleged to support an overarching case that QBE had information showing that it was likely, or there was a material risk, that its financial performance and its financial results for FY13 would be adversely affected by the performance of QBENA and that earnings guidance given by respect of those things was unreliable (the Combined Case).
125 The proceeding alleges that each item of information that was allegedly not disclosed in relation to each of the three relevant parts of QBENA ought to have been disclosed individually and cumulatively. The proceeding identifies numerous permutations of the disclosures that QBE was required to make.
126 Each of the three cases, if commenced separately, would itself have involved a substantial trial. The complexity of the proceeding may be illustrated through the expert evidence filed on Money Max's behalf:
(a) on the Program Case, a report comprising 85 pages plus annexures by a US-based actuary, Michael Toothman, who was briefed with more than 5,000 documents;
(b) on the FPS Case, a report comprising 108 pages plus annexures by a US-based economist and force-placed insurance business expert, Birny Birnbaum, who was briefed with more than 3,500 documents;
(c) on the FPS Case, a report comprising 98 pages plus annexures by an accounting expert, Madeleine Mattera (a partner of the Audit and Assurance Division of Grant Thornton Australia), who was briefed with more than 5,500 documents;
(d) on the Crop Case, a report comprising 83 pages plus annexures by a US-based expert in crop insurance, Richard Bill, who was briefed with more than 4,700 documents;
(e) on the Combined Case, a supplementary report by Ms Mattera comprising 19 pages plus annexures;
(f) a materiality expert report comprising 112 pages plus annexures by Professor Raymond Da Silva Rosa, who was briefed with more than 2,000 documents; and
(g) an event study report comprising 45 pages plus annexures by an expert economist, Professor Mark Zmijewski, who was briefed with more than 1,800 documents.
127 At the point of settlement QBE had filed 10 lay witness statements by senior company executives and actuaries and an event study report by John Holzwarth, but it had not yet filed the balance of its expert evidence. Its evidence thus far, much of which is technical in nature and akin to expert evidence, comprehensively attacks the factual substratum of the applicant's case and rejects the claims advanced in the proceedings. At a high level it contends that:
(a) to the extent that the claims in the proceeding arose from forward-looking statements made by QBE (which for the most part they did) those statements were inherently and inevitably uncertain, were based on reasonable grounds, and in any event came with appropriate disclaimers, qualifications and disclosures of risks;
(b) all of the "information" which was the subject of the applicant's claims fell within the exception to disclosure in ASX Listing Rule 3.1A, on the basis that it comprised matters of supposition, was insufficiently definite to warrant disclosure, was generated for internal management purposes, and was confidential and a reasonable person would not expect the information to be disclosed;
(c) the risk that QBE might not achieve its earnings guidance, might need to increase its provisions and/or might need to record an impairment to its goodwill and other intangible assets was information that was generally available and was not information which a reasonable person would expect to have a material effect on the price or value of QBE shares. It contends that such a risk always exists in circumstances where those matters are inherently and inevitably uncertain;
(d) the applicant's claim focuses on some isolated sentences in ASX announcements and telephone conferences with analysts, divorced from their overall context; and
(e) after 10 December 2013 QBE share price recovered to some extent thereby indicating that the market over-reacted on 9 and 10 December 2013 and that class members' losses were less than the loss if the price reaction is measured as at those dates.
128 QBE's expert evidence is likely to have further increased the factual and legal complexity of the case.
129 If the case proceeds its final resolution is likely to be some years away. The proceeding was commenced on 9 September 2015 and it was listed for an initial trial to commence in August 2018, on an estimate of eight weeks. In a case of this size and complexity any judgment on the common issues would likely not be handed down until approximately mid-2019. If the applicant was successful on the common issues there is a real prospect of an appeal by QBE. That would take at least a further year to be heard and decided. Whether "market-based" causation is available may require determination by the High Court which would take longer again.
130 Following determination of any appeal it may be necessary to individually determine class members' claims or at least a representative sample of such claims. It is reasonable to expect that the applicant and class members would not receive any money from the litigation before 2020, at least.
131 The factual and legal complexity and likely duration of any trial and appeal strongly point to approval of the settlement. It is difficult for an applicant to be confident of the outcome in a case like the present one and that provides a strong basis for settlement approval.