Tribunal's decision
5 The Tribunal accepted ANH16's claims regarding:
(1) The security situation in Upper Kurram in 2007.
(2) An incident in which two cars which were driving in front of him were fired at.
(3) The death of his uncle in 2008 when he and a number of other drivers were stopped and taken out of their vehicles and beheaded en route from Peshawar.
(4) The kidnapping by the Taliban of his friend in 2009.
(5) As a result of the unsafe conditions in Upper Kurram, the applicant gave up his employment as a driver and that he remained in his village working on his farm.
6 The Tribunal did not accept that ANH16 resumed driving for a short period from late 2011 because it did not accept that ANH16 moved away from his home village towards the end of 2011. That was because of a discrepancy between where he said that he lived during that time in his statutory declaration supporting his claims (Peshawar) and his evidence at the interview (Islamabad). It therefore followed that the Tribunal did not accept ANH16's claim that he had been warned by his employer against continuing to work as a driver because of risk to both ANH16 and the employer if people (including the Taliban) found out that the employer had a Shia working for him. The Tribunal did not accept that ANH16 had worked as a mini bus driver after 2007 when he sold the bus and resumed working on the family farm and it therefore did not accept that he would recommence driving as his occupation if he returned to Pakistan. However, the Tribunal found that if he does resume that occupation, based on country information, ANH16 does not face a real chance of serious harm.
7 At DR[50]-[66], the Tribunal considered independent country information provided by ANH16 through his representative and other country information including the following:
(1) Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade (DFAT) 2015, DFAT Thematic Report Shias in Pakistan 14 April 2015 (2015 DFAT report);
(2) The US Department of State, International Religious Freedom Report for 2013 (2013 US State Department report);
(3) The US Department of State, Country Report on Human Right Practices for 2014 (2014 US State Department report);
(4) UN High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), UNHCR Eligibility Guidelines for Assessing the International Protection Needs of Members of Religious Minorities from Pakistan, 14 May 2012 (UNHCR Eligibility Guidelines);
(5) UNHCR, Post-return monitoring in areas of return Sholzan Tangi, Upper Kurram agency - June 2014¸ 30 June 2014;
(6) May 2012, FATA Research Centre 2014, Security Report Second Quarter 2014;
(7) FATA Research Centre 2015, Annual Security Report 2014;
(8) FATA Research Centre 2015, Security Report Third Quarter 2015;
(9) South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP) 'FATA Assessment 2015'
(10) A May 2015 decision of the Refugee Review Tribunal (May 2015 RRT decision);
(11) Reports concerning a bomb explosion on 13 December 2015 in a market place in Parachinar, in which those killed were Shia; and
(12) Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade 2016, DFAT Thematic Report - Shias in Pakistan 14 January 2016 (2016 DFAT report).
8 The Tribunal said the following at DR[49]-[53] (as written, emphasis added):
49. The Tribunal has considered whether the applicant faces a real chance of persecution, now or in the reasonably foreseeable future, if he returns to his home area in [redacted] in Upper Kurram, FATA because of his Shia religion, his Bangash ethnicity, an imputed political opinion in opposition to the TTP and/or other extremist Sunni groups on account of his Shia Muslim religion, his Bangash ethnicity, his origins as from Parachinar (a region with a long-standing violent conflict with the Taliban) and his extended presence in Australia (a Western county with a Christian heritage) as an asylum seeker and his membership of a particular social group of Bangash Shias from Kurram Agency, as outlined in the applicant's adviser's submission to the Tribunal.
50. The Tribunal has had regard to the independent information provided by the applicant's adviser in the submission to the Tribunal regarding the situation in Parachinar and Kurram Agency; including DFA T Thematic Report- Shias in Pakistan, US State Department International Religious Freedom Report for 2013, the US Department of State Country Report on Human Rights Practices for 2014 and UNHCR's Eligibility Guidelines for Assessing the International Protection Needs of Members of Religious Minorities from Pakistan released on 14 May 2012. It was highlighted in the submission that the 2012 UNHCR report states that members of the Shia community, "particularly those in areas where Taliban-affiliated groups are active, such as in the northwest of Pakistan and in urban centres, may, depending on the individual circumstances of the case, be in need of international protection". The adviser cited various sections of DFAT's Thematic Report - Shias in Pakistan dated 14 April 2015 which refers to an improved situation in Kurram agency, but which also noted that there is a "high degree of generalised violence in FATA and a moderate risk of sectarian violence in some areas" and the situation in FATA remains volatile due to an ongoing counterinsurgency operations by the Pakistani security services. The adviser also referred to information in the DFAT report indicating that many internally displaced persons had returned to Kurram Agency, but that UNHCR reported in its Fact Sheet of May 2015 that no Internally Displaced Persons (IDP's) had returned to the Kurram Agency in 2015.
51. The adviser cited a decision of the RRT of May 2015 which set out continued attacks on Shias in Kurram Agency, notwithstanding the reported decline in the levels of violence since 2009 and an RRT decision of December 2014 which found that despite reports of stabilisation in the region, it found the situation in Parachinar remained volatile, particularly in relation to the situation on the Parachinar-Thall road that remained unstable.
52. Reference was also made to the FATA Research Centre report on sectarian violence in FATA for the period July to September 2015 which it was noted provided a troubling update on the situation in Kurram Agency and also the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP) FATA 2015 Assessment which purportedly asserted that the threat from terrorist groups was ongoing and makes clear that sectarian attacks on Shia civilians continue to occur as revenge for counterinsurgency operations undertaken by the security forces.
53. The Tribunal has carefully considered the applicant's evidence, the submissions made by his adviser and the independent evidence, including the information outlined below, as put to the applicant in the hearing, in regard to the situation in the applicant's home area in Kurram Agency in determining whether he would face a real chance of persecution for a Convention reason, now or in the reasonably foreseeable future, if returned to Pakistan.
9 At DR[54]-[62], the Tribunal considered aspects of reports referred to at [7] above in relation to the security situation in the Kurram in the period from a truce in 2013 between the Shia Turi and mostly Sunni Bangash communities in the Kurram Agency, including articles provided by ANH16's representative after the hearing.
10 At DR[54], the Tribunal referred to a report of the FATA Research Centre from July 2014 in relation to the period between April-June 2014, which reported that the security situation in the Kurram Agency had been stable in the reporting period and that compared to the previous two quarters there had been signs of improvement. The Tribunal quoted from the report that "Overall, six terrorism incidents were reported from the agency, costing thirteen lives. Most of these incidents involving bomb blasts were recorded from central and lower Kurram, whereas in the border areas of Shelwanzai Tangi, security forces also clashed with militants".
11 At DR[55], the Tribunal noted that in its annual security report for 2014 (published in May 2015), the FATA Research Centre stated that the Kurram Agency remained comparatively quiet among the seven tribal agencies in 2014. It went on to say that (as written):
In the first quarter Kurram Agency remained turbulent, facing 17 terrorism incidents in which 16 people died and 29 were injured. It was observed that the main trend of terrorism was bomb blasts which mostly happened on dust paths and fields and were sectarian oriented, with the victims being Sunni. It was stated that the Agency was less disturbed in the second quarter of the year with six incidents reported, four of which occurred in central and lower Kurram agency. The third quarter was again less turbulent with only one terrorism incident and in the fourth quarter Kurram Agency was described as remaining comparatively quiet among the seven tribal agencies in 2014, with a total of two incidents, one bomb blast and one target killing during the reporting period.
12 DR[56] then dealt with FATA Research Centre's reports relating to 2015. In relation to the first quarter, the Tribunal noted that almost every agency in the tribal belt faced terrorist subversive activities. In relation to the Kurram Agency, it noted that the Lower Kurram Agency was an "epicentre of military activities". In the second quarter, the Kurram Agency remained relatively stable. Only three security related incidents occurred, two were clashes between militants and security forces in which four militants in total died, two militants were injured and one security forces member was injured. The third was a bomb blast in which a security forces member was injured. Kurram Agency "witnessed a surge in militancy and counter military incidents" in the third quarter, with six incidents recorded (double the three of the previous quarter). In the last quarter, the areas that remained turbulent were in Central and Lower Kurram.
13 At DR[57], the Tribunal noted that, consistent with that information, the SATP (in its FATA Assessment for 2015) reported that civilian and security forces fatalities in the FATA recorded a seven year decline, while overall fatalities were higher due to the increase in terrorist fatalities under ongoing military operations in NWA and Khyber Agencies. It went on to say that (as written, emphasis added):
It reported that total fatalities through 2014 stood at 2,863, including 2,510 terrorists, 194 security forces personnel and 159 civilians; as compared to 1,716, including 1,199 terrorists, 319 civilians and 198 SF personnel in 2013. While SATP noted the number of major incidents (each involving three or more fatalities) in FATA increased by 48.87 per cent in 2014 compared to the previous year, this was said to be principally due to the counter-insurgency operations with the overwhelming number of fatalities occurring among groups registered as terrorists rather than civilians or security forces personnel. SATP reported that other parameters of violence such as suicide attacks, explosions and sectarian attacks remained low throughout 2014 with significantly less casualties from both suicide attacks and incidents of explosion. SATP recorded that sectarian violence in the region also registered a steep decline.
14 At DR[58], the Tribunal quoted the passages at [4.35]-[4.37] of the 2015 DFAT report which are set out in full at [41] below.
15 At DR[59], the Tribunal noted that, consistently with the 2015 DFAT report, the UNHCR (Protection cluster mission to Kurram from 22-26 April 2014) reported that IDPs (that is, internally displaced persons) commenced return to Upper and Lower Kurram. The UNHCR report noted that 23 main villages and 76 sub-villages were visited and "[i]t is evident that general peace in upper and lower Kurram is restored but still the sense of un-secureness prevails among the minority groups for return".
16 At DR[60], the Tribunal quoted from the UNHCR's report from June 2014 which was a "detailed review of those who had returned to the Upper Kurram area" as follows:
2) General situation and security in areas of return
All key informants in the five villages showed satisfaction over the security situation in the area and they shared that they feel safe and secure currently in area of return. They unanimously stated that there is no restriction on their movement and they can freely move even though they also shared that for security purpose they are stopped at check posts by the security force staff where they are asked to show their identity documents such as CNIG. When entering to the area of origin, there are three checkpoints that the returnees have to cross before entering their area of origin. These checkpoints are guarded by the khassadar and Pakistani Army. It was shared that the military regularly checks identity documents of all those who pass through the checkpoints.
The majority of consulted groups stated that no major security incidents had occurred since their return to place of origin, nor harassment incident has been reported by the returnees.
When asked about the presence of land mines in the villages, all five interviewees stated that they were not aware of presence of such devices and area was cleared by the security force and political administration prior to their return. Two of the interviewed respondents indicated that were briefed about Mine and Risk Education (MRE) at Sholzan Dara embarkation point during return.
17 At DR[61], the Tribunal said that it was mindful "that while there has been a reported decline in the levels of violence in the Kurram Agency in recent years, DFAT has advised that there continues to be sectarian and terrorist attacks and that the security situation remains volatile due to ongoing insurgency operations by Pakistani security services in FATA". It also noted that "DFAT also assessed that there is a high level of generalised violence and a moderate risk of sectarian violence in some areas of FATA. The Tribunal notes according to FATA Research Centre's security report for the first quarter of 2015, violence as a consequence of persistent conflict was observed in all seven agencies of FATA including Kurram Agency and recorded militant activities in the area shows that the agency still faces the menace of terrorism".
18 At DR[62], the Tribunal noted ANH16's responses to the information it put to him at the hearing as outlined above, to the effect that the media reports on high profile killings but no-one reports when one, two or three people are killed, citing an unreported incident said to have occurred 2.5 km from his home village where people were killed. ANH16 also relied on an article from Dawn dated 18 November 2014 relating to an incident in the Nasti Kot area in Parachinar district when an improvised explosive device was planted on the roadside and detonated when a school van passed nearby, killing two and wounding five.
19 The Tribunal went on to conclude at DR[63]-[65] as follows (as written, emphasis added):
63. While the Tribunal accepts that there continues to be ongoing sectarian violence in FATA, including in Upper Kurram Agency where the applicant's village is located, as borne out by the information discussed above, the Tribunal finds on the range of sources consulted that the situation has changed significantly as compared to previous years and that there has been an improvement as a result of stabilisation in the region. The independent information provides that in Kurram Agency in particular, 2014 saw a steady improvement in the security situation from the beginning of the year, which ultimately led to the area being described as comparatively quite. The Tribunal notes that in DFAT's country report of April 2015, it was assessed that there is a moderate risk of sectarian violence in some areas of FATA. The Tribunal does not accept on the basis of all the information before it, including information from the FATA research centre and SATP, that Upper Kurram, including Parachinar, is one of the areas where such a risk exists. The Tribunal refers to the information from the FATA research centre cited above, which reports that most of the incidents in 2014 in Kurram Agency were in Central and Lower Kurram Agency. This is confirmed in the more recent DFAT report dated 15 January 2016 in which DFAT assesses there is a low level of sectarian violence overall in the FATA.
64. The Tribunal has considered DFAT's assessment in the April 2015 report that the situation in FATA generally remains volatile due to ongoing counterinsurgency operations by the Pakistani security services. The Tribunal refers to the information cited above from the South Asian Terrorism Portal which reported an increase in major incidents in FATA in 2014, compared to 2013, due to the counter-insurgency operations, which resulted in an overwhelming number of fatalities in those classified as terrorists, as opposed to civilians and security forces personnel. The Tribunal notes the reference made by the applicant's adviser, in their post hearing submission, to the 2015 assessment made by SATP which makes clear that sectarian attacks on Shia civilians continue to occur as revenge for counterinsurgency operations undertaken by the security forces. While the Tribunal appreciates that there will continue to be instability as a result of the authorities continued struggle with terrorist, militant and sectarian groups, the Tribunal does not accept on the evidence before it that the applicant faces a real chance of serious harm as a result of counterinsurgency operations in FATA more generally. The Tribunal refers to the information cited above from UNHCR, detailing a review of those who had returned to the region in Upper Kurram, in which it was reported that all key informants from five·villages expressed satisfaction with the security situation in the area and shared that they felt safe and secure. Those who were consulted also stated that no major security incidents had occurred since their return.
65. Similarly, the Tribunal notes DFAT's assessment in the April 2015 report that there is a high degree of generalised violence in the FATA. However, given all the country information before it, as discussed above, the Tribunal does not accept that Upper Kurram is one [of] the areas where the this level of risk is present. This is also confirmed in the more recent DFAT report from January 2016 in which it was stated that the level of generalised violence varies throughout FATA, with this violence greatest in North Waziristan and Khyber Agencies because of ongoing military activities associated with Operation Zarb-e-Azb. DFAT assessed there is a low level of generalised violence in Kurram and Orakzai Agencies. While the Tribunal accepts that there is some level of risk to the applicant in the context of generalised violence, it finds on the basis of all the evidence before it that this risk is remote and does not accept that there is a real chance he would be targeted for harm based upon any Convention characteristics, including his Shia religion, his Bangash ethnicity, an imputed political opinion in opposition to the TTP and/or other extremist Sunni groups on account of his Shia Muslim religion, his Bangash ethnicity, his origins as from Parachinar (a region with a long-standing violent conflict with the Taliban) and his extended presence in Australia (a Western county with a Christian heritage) as an asylum seeker and his membership of a particular social group of Bangash Shias from Kurram Agency.
20 After referring to information provided by ANH16's adviser in further submissions dated 18 December 2015 regarding a bomb explosion a few days earlier at a market place in Parachinar in which those who were killed were Shia and reports from the Guardian and Dawn about extremist groups based in South Waziristan Agency, at DR[66], the Tribunal said (as written):
While the applicant's adviser asserted that this attack is a clear indication that sectarian violence is still a significant issue in Parachinar and that Shia civilians are still at very high risk, the Tribunal does not accept that this type of attack, which has been extremely rare in the area over the last few years, represents a certain change in the security situation that has prevailed for several years now, despite threats of similar attacks made by [Lashkar-e-Jhangiv Al Alami]. Although the Tribunal accepts that there continues to be ongoing sectarian violence in FATA, including in Kurram Agency where the applicant's village is located, as borne out by the information discussed above, including the recent attack in December 2015, the Tribunal finds on the range of sources consulted that the situation has changed significantly as compared to previous years and that there has been an improvement as a result of stabilisation in the region since the beginning of 2014. The Tribunal finds that there is nothing in the country information to suggest that this recent attack threatens the truce that has been in place since 2013. Nor does the Tribunal accept on the evidence before it that it can be extrapolated from this particular incident that the security situation in Parachinar or in Kurram Agency generally, has deteriorated such that there is a real chance that any Shia member of the Bangash tribe living in that area will be killed or injured in such a terrorist attack in the reasonably foreseeable future.
21 The Tribunal found as follows at DR[67]:
While the Tribunal accepts that there continues to be clashes between militants and the security forces and occasional incidents in which civilians have been killed or injured, the Tribunal finds that the overall country information indicates that the violence from the Taliban and sectarian violence has decreased in the region, particularly from 2014 onwards, and when this is considered together with the applicant's profile as an ordinary Bangash Shia and the fact that the applicant's family have remained in the area without experiencing any serious harm in recent years, the Tribunal finds the chance of the applicant facing serious harm from the Taliban generally or if he attends religious gatherings, or from other extremist groups or individuals, Sunnis or people generally for reasons of his Shia religion, his Bangash ethnicity, an imputed political opinion in opposition to the TTP and/or other extremist Sunni groups on account of his Shia Muslim religion, his Bangash ethnicity, his origins as from Parachinar (a region with a longstanding violent conflict with the Taliban) and his extended presence in Australia (a Western county with a Christian heritage) as an asylum seeker and his membership of a particular social group of Bangash Shias from Kurram Agency, is remote. The Tribunal is therefore not satisfied that the applicant faces a real chance of serious harm, now or in the reasonably foreseeable future, for a Convention [reason].
22 After considering claims raised during the hearing concerning the threat posed by the distribution of letters by Daish in his village (which the Tribunal did not accept on the limited evidence provided), the claim to fear harm due to ANH16's extended presence in Australia, a western country with a Christian heritage and as an asylum seeker at DR[68]-[70], the Tribunal found as follows at DR[71]-[72]:
71. Based on the country information and the fact the applicant left the country legally on his own passport and no-one, apart from his family, knows where he has gone or that he has been in Australia, the Tribunal finds that the applicant does not face a real chance of persecution, now or in reasonably foreseeable future from the Taliban or anyone else on account of his extended presence in Australia (a western country with Christian heritage) as any asylum seeker or his membership of the particular social groups "returnees from the West" or "failed asylum seekers returning from a Western country".
72. Considering the applicant's claims both individually and cumulatively, as a Bangash Shia from Kurram Agency who has spent an extended period of time in Australia, a western country with a Christian heritage and has applied for asylum, the Tribunal is not satisfied he has a well-founded fear of persecution for reason of his Shia religion, his Bangash ethnicity, an imputed political opinion in opposition to the TTP and/or other extremist Sunni groups on account of his Shia Muslim religion, his Bangash ethnicity, his origins as from Parachinar (a region with a long-standing violent conflict with the Taliban) and his extended presence in Australia (a Western county with a Christian heritage) as an asylum seeker and his membership of a particular social group of Bangash Shias from Kurram Agency if returned to Pakistan now or in the reasonably foreseeable future. It is therefore not satisfied he is a person to whom Australia owes protection obligations under the Refugees Convention. This means he does not satisfy the refugee criterion in s.36(2)(a).
23 The Tribunal then turned to consider the complementary protection criterion under s 36(2)(aa), having regard to the definition of "significant harm" in s 36(2A) of the Migration Act, at DR[73]-[77] and concluded that it was not satisfied that ANH16 meets the criteria for protection under those provisions.