Note 1: For the risk-free rate I have adopted the 10 year bond rate as at 19 December 2014, as published by the Reserve Bank of Australia.
Note 2: The market risk premium refers to the return above the risk-free rate which has been achieved over the long term from an investment in a balanced portfolio of listed company shares. Recent available information indicates a risk premium in Australia (at July 2015) of 6.11% (source: Damodaran Online: Data for discount rate estimation http://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/). Similarly, a fact sheet published by IPART [Independent Pricing and Regulatory Tribunal] in August 2014 indicates a market risk premium of 8.1% for 40 days (at 31 July 2014) and a premium of 6.0% for 10 years (see Annexure G to this report). I have adopted 6.1% as an appropriate estimate of the market risk premium as at December 2014.
Note 3: The size premium recognizes that there is increased risk associated with a smaller entity when compared to larger diversified listed public companies (from which the market risk premium is derived). Studies such as Pratt, Reilly and Schweihs (Valuing a Business: The Analysis and Appraisal of Closely Held Companies, McGraw Hill, 2000), and Annin ('Is there still a size premium?" - Ibbottson Associates) suggest appropriate risk adjustments for size would be between 4.35% and 5.78%. As the Taylor blueberry farm is significantly smaller than a listed entity, I have adopted a 5% size premium.
Note 4: The specific risk premium reflects my assessment of the additional risk associated with the identified cash flows (above that of a balanced portfolio of listed company shares). This premium allows for the increased risk brought about by factors such as the long-term nature of the cash flow forecasts, the significant risk of an oversupply in the blueberry industry (see Annexure H to this report) and business risks specifically associated with the blueberry farming industry, including risks associated with adverse weather events, insects and other pests, and the availability and cost of itinerant labour at harvest time. The choice of specific risk premium is necessarily subjective although, based on my experience, the derived total pre-tax discount rate of 32% is consistent with rates of return required for an investment in a small business which generally range from 20% to 50%.
Note 5: The market risk premium of 6.1% (see Note 2) is derived from studies of the share market which establish the difference between the market returns and the risk-free rate. As market returns are measured on the basis of the after-tax income of listed companies, the resultant rate is an after-tax of return. As the expected cash flows from the blueberry farm are expressed in pre-tax terms, it is necessary to adopt a pre-tax discount rate. To convert the after-tax rate to the pre-tax rate I have applied the company tax rate of 30%.
- Dr Ferrier further explained:
1. that the market risk premium reflected the risk premium for a diversified portfolio of listed company shares that he had then applied to the subject business which comprises an undiversified single unlisted asset;
2. that the specific risk premium was a subjective assessment by himself to reflect the long term nature of the cash flow forecasts, the significant risk of oversupply in the blueberry industry (contrary to the evidence of Mr McPherson) and risks associated with blueberry farming including adverse weather events, insects and pests and the availability and costs of itinerant labour; and
3. that the size premium reflects the increased risk associated with a smaller entity when compared to larger diversified listed public companies from which the market risk premium is derived..
- Following the joint conferencing process, Dr Ferrier adopted a discount rate of 29.5% which is the 32% from his original report with 2.2% deducted for inflation.
- Dr Ferrier was cross-examined on the tax status of the risk free rate and the market risk premium in the table extracted above in par 50. Dr Ferrier stated that the 3% risk free rate is pre-tax, but the combination of the risk free rate and the market risk premium (together 9.1%) is an after tax figure. Dr Ferrier was questioned on his decision to adjust the 3% risk free rate when it is a pre-tax figure. He stated that the 9.1% is in total post-tax even though the 3% risk free rate is pre-tax and therefore it is correct to adjust the total figure of 9.1% for tax. Dr Ferrier's opinion is that a size premium should be applied because small businesses are riskier than the large listed companies which provide the starting point for working out a reasonable discount rate. It was put to Dr Ferrier that the small size of the Applicant's farm makes it less risky than a listed company, and that because blueberry farming is so profitable it would be ill-advised to diversify the business. Dr Ferrier stated that smaller companies generally have a higher return which generally means higher risk, and maintained that it was appropriate to discount for the higher risk of smaller businesses. Dr Ferrier was questioned on his assumption that matters such as the availability and costs of itinerant labour, insects and pests, oversupply in the market and weather events presented risks to the Applicant's business. He confirmed his written evidence that they are all risks that need to be taken account in the specific risk premium, which is a subjective figure.