Issue 1: Should the tribunal have asked itself why after his mistreatment in 2003, the appellant no longer had any interest in expressing his political opinion?
21 The Minister argued that the tribunal correctly addressed the fundamental question: namely, whether the appellant had a well founded fear of persecution for a Convention reason. He said that the principle in Appellant S395 216 CLR 473 was that the tribunal's function was to make that fact-specific inquiry in respect of the appellant's articulated claims, relying on Applicant NABD of 2002 v Minister for Immigration and Multicultural and Indigenous Affairs (2005) 216 ALR 1 at 39 [162] per Hayne and Heydon JJ; see also 3-4 [8]-[11] per Gleeson CJ, 8-10 [27]-[31] per McHugh J, 16 [55] per Kirby J. He argued that once the tribunal addressed that inquiry it did not need to go further.
22 The Minister also argued that the tribunal's reasons exhaustively considered the appellant's actual claims. He said that the tribunal was not required to consider whether the persecutory conduct it found may have induced the appellant to drop his protest or to give up a wish to involve himself in political activity. Rather, the Minister submitted, the tribunal properly addressed all the claims which the appellant had actually made.
23 The Minister argued that the tribunal had found that the Chinese authorities were only interested in individuals who were politically active or suspected of being so. In Minister for Immigration and Ethnic Affairs v Guo (1997) 191 CLR 559 at 575, Brennan CJ, Dawson, Toohey, Gaudron, McHugh and Gummow JJ said that a determination whether there was a real chance that something would occur required an estimation of the likelihood that one or more events would give rise to the occurrence of that thing. They said that in many, if not most cases, determining what was likely to occur in the future would require findings as to what had occurred in the past because what had occurred in the past was likely to be the most reliable guide as to what would happen in the future. And, they said that without making findings about the policies of the Chinese government's authorities, in that case, and the past relationship of Mr Guo with those authorities, '… the tribunal would have had no rational basis from which it could assess whether there was a real chance that he might be persecuted for a Convention reason if he were returned to the PRC'.
24 Of course, in Guo 191 CLR 557 at 568-569 the tribunal had found that a considerable number of the applicant's claims were not credible and only accepted one of them, on the basis of which it made its assessments. There the tribunal found that Mr Guo had not had any political profile attributed to him by the Chinese authorities, and accordingly he had no well-founded fear of persecution for a Convention reason (Guo 191 CLR at 569). In the present case, the tribunal made clear findings about what happened to the appellant, his actual political profile, and the conduct and the policies of the Chinese authorities.
25 In Appellant S395 216 CLR 473, the tribunal concluded that because the appellants had lived together in Bangladesh for over 4 years without experiencing any more than minor problems with anyone outside their own families, they had conducted themselves in a discrete manner. It found that there was no reason that they would not continue to do so if they were returned to Bangladesh. Accordingly, the tribunal concluded that the persecutory behaviour of Bangladeshi society towards homosexuals did not give rise to a well-founded fear of persecution because the applicants in that case would live there discretely.
26 The majority of the High Court held that this approach constituted a jurisdictional error. McHugh and Kirby JJ noted there that the applicants had not raised any issue of modifying their behaviour because they feared persecution. However, their Honours said (Appellant S395 216 CLR at 489 [39]):
' ... it seems highly likely that they acted discreetly in the past because they feared they would suffer harm unless they did. If it is an error of law to reject a Convention claim because the applicant can avoid harm by acting discreetly, the Tribunal not only erred in law but has failed to consider the real question that it had to decide - whether the appellants had a well-founded fear of persecution.' (Emphasis added.)
Their Honours answered affirmatively the hypothesis they posed, concluding that the tribunal had erred in law. They said (Appellant S395 216 CLR at 490-491 [43]):
'The notion that it is reasonable for a person to take action that will avoid persecutory harm invariably leads a tribunal of fact into a failure to consider properly whether there is a real chance of persecution if the person is returned to the country of nationality. This is particularly so where the actions of the persecutors have already caused the person affected to modify his or her conduct by hiding his or her religious beliefs, political opinions, racial origins, country of nationality or membership of a particular social group. In cases where the applicant has modified his or her conduct, there is a natural tendency for the tribunal of fact to reason that, because the applicant has not been persecuted in the past, he or she will not be persecuted in the future. The fallacy underlying this approach is the assumption that the conduct of the applicant is uninfluenced by the conduct of the persecutor and that the relevant persecutory conduct is the harm that will be inflicted. In many - perhaps the majority of - cases, however, the applicant has acted in the way that he or she did only because of the threat of harm. In such cases, the well-founded fear of persecution held by the applicant is the fear that, unless that person acts to avoid the harmful conduct, he or she will suffer harm. It is the threat of serious harm with its menacing implications that constitutes the persecutory conduct. To determine the issue of real chance without determining whether the modified conduct was influenced by the threat of harm is to fail to consider that issue properly.' (Their Honours' emphasis.)
27 I am of opinion that the tribunal's reasons disclose a jurisdictional error. The tribunal was required by s 425(1) of the Act to identify 'the issues arising in relation to the decision under review'. The Act assumes that issues can be identified as arising in relation to the review: SZBEL v Minister for Immigration and Multicultural and Indigenous Affairs (2006) 231 ALR 592 at 600 [33]-[34], 601 [40] per Gleeson CJ, Kirby, Hayne, Callinan and Heydon JJ. The tribunal failed to enquire whether the appellant's lack of political involvement and interest after his release from detention in 2003 occurred as a consequence of the persecutory conduct he had suffered. (cf: Appellant S395 216 CLR at 493 [51] per McHugh and Kirby JJ).
28 The tribunal determined the issue of whether the appellant had a well-founded fear of persecution if he returned to China on the basis that he no longer wished to express political opinion. But in doing so it did not address why he no longer wished to exercise this fundamental right. Nor did it address whether the appellant's current position had been affected by the past conduct of the Chinese authorities towards him. Just as McHugh and Kirby JJ had held in Appellant S395 216 CLRat489 [39],despitethe fact that the appellant here did not raise explicitly any issue that he had modified his behaviour because of his fear of persecution, I am of opinion that it is highly likely that he did so.
29 The tribunal's findings of the harm which the appellant had suffered were that he had been jailed, tortured, made to sign a confession and he had then spent the next six months being harassed by the authorities until he had to flee here. The harassment continued to occur even when he had ceased expressing his opinions. The tribunal did not ask what effect that harm and the threat of its repetition in the future had on the appellant. In particular it did not consider why he had lost interest in expressing his political opinions. It is difficult to think that a person who had organised a sustained public campaign to achieve justice for his paralysed friend had lost all interest in the pursuit of that end independently of any connection to his arrest on the day of the final protest and his subjection to persecutory conduct for the next nine months.
30 The tribunal did not address whether the modification in the appellant's desire to pursue his political activity of seeking justice for his friend had been influenced by the actual harm that he had suffered and the threat of its continuation. Even in jail, for a time, he resisted making a confession until, as the tribunal found, he could no longer bear his mistreatment. That is not insignificant in the scheme of a proper consideration of whether his fear was well-founded. As McHugh and Kirby JJ said in Appellant S395 216 CLR at 489 [40]:
'… persecution does not cease to be persecution for the purpose of the Convention because those persecuted can eliminate the harm by taking avoiding action within the country of nationality. The Convention would give no protection from persecution for reasons of religion or political opinion if it was a condition of protection that the person affected must take steps - reasonable or otherwise - to avoid offending the wishes of the persecutors.'
31 Given that the tribunal had accepted the appellant's claims of mistreatment by the authorities directly caused by his political activity, the tribunal had to ask itself the question why, after experiencing that persecutory conduct, had he ceased to pursue or be interested in further political activity. Here, the tribunal should have asked the question why the appellant no longer wished to raise the political opinion which he had previously expressed. Gummow and Hayne JJ said in Appellant S395 216 CLR at 503 [88] that the tribunal there, as here, did not ask why the appellant would live 'discreetly'. Gummow and Hayne JJ said of the tribunal:
'It did not ask whether the appellants would live "discreetly" because that was the way in which they would hope to avoid persecution. That is, the Tribunal was diverted from addressing the fundamental question of whether there was a well-founded fear of persecution by considering whether the appellants were likely to live as a couple in a way that would not attract adverse attention.'
32 Similarly here, the real question for the tribunal was what caused the appellant's change of heart. As McHugh and Kirby JJ had said, it is fallacious to assume that a person's conduct is uninfluenced by the conduct of the persecutor and that the only relevant persecutory conduct is actual harm that will be inflicted in the future. They emphasised that the threat of harm is relevant to the consideration of a claim such as the present (Appellant S395 216 CLR at 490 [43]).
33 The tribunal should have addressed whether the appellant had changed or modified his interest in seeking justice for his friend or protesting against the government's conduct because of the persecutory consequences which the tribunal had found the appellant had actually suffered. This was relevant to whether the threat of further persecution gave rise to a well-founded fear in the appellant that he would be persecuted for reasons of political opinion on his return to China if he felt himself free to or did express the opinions he had previously expressed.
34 The tribunal simply assumed that the appellant's apparent disinterest in continuing to express the opinion which led to his arrest and mistreatment would mean he would not be at risk of further harm for a Convention reason. In ordinary aspects of human life, where people suffer a severe consequence for particular conduct, they do not usually repeat the conduct. One of the matters which courts take into account in sentencing offenders is deterrence; that is, the effects which the sentence or punishment inflicted is likely to have on the offender's propensity to re-offend and on others who, seeing or learning of the sentence, may assess their chance of suffering a similar fate as condign punishment. The aphorism, 'once bitten twice shy' has an obvious application to an experience of the kind the tribunal found the appellant to have had.
35 The tribunal did not address whether the appellant had been silenced effectively by the threat of further harm were he again to express any political opinion. On the tribunal's findings the appellant suffered further harm by reason of his previous conduct following his confession and release from custody. After such an experience not everyone in the appellant's situation would have the courage to continue the fight to express his or her political opinion or to have any interest in doing so. He organised the demonstration on 10 October 2003 because, as he said, 'I really could not give up'. But the appellant gave up his fight for justice for his friend after he had been persecuted. The tribunal did not address why, and thus failed to exercise its jurisdiction, because it did not ask itself the correct question or consider this relevant consideration.