Relevant caselaw
33The concept of "significant probative value" has been the subject of consideration in a number of cases, starting in this Court with R v Lockyer (1996) 89 A Crim R 457 at 459 (Hunt CJ at CL). It is sufficient for present purposes to note the statutory language. Further, as explained by Campbell JA (Howie and Rothman JJ agreeing) in R v Ford [2009] NSWCCA 306; 201 A Crim R 451 at [52], a decision "that evidence has 'significant probative value' is, like the decision about whether the evidence has 'probative value' at all, a decision about the reasoning processes that are open to a jury."
34The applicant relied upon a number of authorities to support his challenge to the finding of the trial judge. In written submissions, apart from reliance on the reasoning of the High Court in Stubley, a number of authorities were cited for the proposition that in assessing "significant probative value", the degree of specificity of the conduct alleged to evince a tendency or coincidence is important: Ibrahim v Pham [2007] NSWCA 215 at [264]-[266]; O'Keefe v The Queen [2009] NSWCCA 121 at [65]-[68]; CGL v Director of Public Prosecutions (Vic) [2010] VSCA 26; 24 VR 486 at [40]; GBF v The Queen [2010] VSCA 135 at [31] and Fletcher at [57]-[58]. In oral argument, counsel also referred to the recent decision of the Court in Sokolowskyj v R [2014] NSWCCA 55. Neither party submitted that there was any significant variation between the case law in Victoria and in this State, nor that there had been any particular change in the approach to tendency and coincidence evidence over the period covered by the cases relied upon.
35Both of these last propositions have been called in question by a recent and comprehensive analysis by the Victorian Court of Appeal in Velkoski v The Queen [2014] VSCA 121 (Redlich, Weinberg and Coghlan JJA). The Court stated that "[c]urrently there are undoubted differences between the decisions of this Court and the New South Wales Court of Criminal Appeal as to whether similarity of features need be present in order for evidence to be admissible as tendency evidence": at [34]; see also at [82] and [163]. The apparent point of departure is "as to the degree of similarity in the commission of the offences or the circumstances which surround the commission of the offences that is necessary to support tendency reasoning": at [163]. A line of authority in New South Wales was said to have "emphasised that tendency reasoning is not 'based upon similarities', and evidence of such a character need not be present", referring to R v PWD [2010] NSWCCA 209; 205 A Crim R 75; BP v R [2010] NSWCCA 303 and, by way of contrast, a Victorian case, KRI v The Queen [2011] VSCA 127; 207 A Crim R 552.
36A statement of another intermediate court of appeal in such uncompromising terms in relation to uniform legislation operating in both jurisdictions raises an issue of some sensitivity for this Court. There are difficulties in responding to what is undoubtedly a thorough and troubling analysis. However, it is not entirely clear from the judgment in Velkoski how the issue of comparative jurisprudence arose, or what submissions were put to the Victorian court. Further, to be sure that a real difference of approach has been identified, rather than a difference in semantics, it will be necessary to decide whether comparable cases would be decided differently in each State. That was not an exercise expressly undertaken in Velkoski. Finally, to undertake that exercise would have required recognition of the debate in this Court as to the nature of the Court's jurisdiction on an interlocutory appeal. It might also have required consideration of whether the change in statutory language in 2009 in this State's Evidence Act affected the approaches adopted before and after that time.
37It is neither productive nor appropriate (there being no hint of disagreement in the submissions before the Court) to consider whether in this respect the opinions expressed in Velkoski are correct. However, it may be noted that each Court has cited judgments of the other over a number of years without major points of departure being noted. More significantly, it is possible to derive a number of basic propositions which are not in doubt and are sufficient to resolve the issues in this case.
38First, the provisions of the Evidence Act have effected change to common law principles, which are no longer to be applied. It follows that, whilst there may be assistance to be derived from the common law cases with respect to the underlying principles which inform the exclusion of tendency and coincidence evidence, those cases provide limited guidance as to the circumstances in which such evidence may now be admitted.
39Secondly, although there is no necessary harm in using concepts which became familiar in the common law cases, such as the fact that evidence reveals "unusual features", "underlying unity", "system" or "pattern", which are essentially neutral as to the level at which such features are demonstrated, the language of "striking similarities" suggesting a particular strength of probability reasoning is no longer apt, because it is inconsistent with the test of "significant probative value": Simpson J in Fletcher at [60], commenting on a passage from Hoch v The Queen [1988] HCA 50; 165 CLR 292 at 294-295.
40Thirdly, reliance on such language may distract (by creating a mindset derived from common law experience) and may provide little guidance in applying the current statutory test. As stated by Campbell JA in R v Ford at [125]:
"The Respondent accepts that the evidence in question has some probative value, but disputes that it has significant probative value. It submits that there is no striking pattern of similarity between the incidents. In my view there is no need for there to be a 'striking pattern of similarity between the incidents'. All that is necessary is that the disputed evidence should make more likely, to a significant extent, the facts that make up the elements of the offence charged."
41Earlier, at [41], Campbell JA had stated:
"The case law contains examples of the way in which a tendency to engage in a particular type of behaviour can be relevant to whether an accused has committed a particular crime charged, even though that tendency does not in itself involve performance of a contravention of the same provision of the criminal law as that charged, or closely similar behaviour. In R v Li [2003] NSWCCA 407, Dunford J (with whom Spigelman CJ agreed) said at [11]:
'Section 97 is not directed only at evidence showing a tendency to commit a particular crime but showing a tendency "to act in a particular way". In this case it was directed to showing that the appellant had a tendency to use violence to the complainant and to seek to control her in stressful marriage situations, and was relevant to whether he did by his actions on the night in question effectively "detain" her; but it was not necessary for this purpose to show that he had detained her on any other occasion.'"
42Fourthly, attention to the language of s 97 (and s 98) has the practical advantage of focusing attention on the precise logical connection between the evidence proffered and the elements of the offence charged. Thus, rather than asking whether there is "underlying unity" or "a modus operandi" or a "pattern of conduct" the judge can focus on the particular connection between the evidence and one or more elements of the offence charged.
43Fifthly, there is an awkwardness in the separation of "tendency" evidence and "coincidence", at least in some circumstances. Thus, in a case such as the present, where there was no issue as to the identity of the alleged offender, but rather a dispute as to the occurrence of the offences, evidence of the accused's conduct on another occasion will combine the implausibility of independent complainants both falsely describing similar conduct with the inference that a person who conducted himself in a particular way on one occasion may well have done so again on another.
44Sixthly, "tendency" evidence will usually depend upon establishing similarities in a course of conduct, even though the section does not refer (by contrast with s 98) to elements of similarity. That inference is inevitable, because that which is excluded is evidence that a person has or had a tendency to act in a particular way, or to have a particular state of mind. Evidence of conduct having that effect will almost inevitably require degrees of similarity, although the nature of the similarities will depend very much on the circumstances of the case.
45In R v PWD, Beazley JA stated at [79]:
"The authorities are clear that for evidence to be admissible under s 97 there does not have to be striking similarities, or even closely similar behaviour. By contrast, coincidence evidence is based upon similarities. Section 98 provides in terms that two or more events occurring is not admissible to prove that a person did a particular act, on the basis that, having regard to any similarities in the events or the circumstances in which they occurred, or any similarities in both the events and the circumstances in which they occurred, it is improbable that the events occurred coincidentally unless, the evidence has significant probative value." (Emphasis in original.)
46That statement accurately reflected both the authorities which had been outlined at [57]-[70] and the language of ss 97 and 98. That passage (when read in context) does not "remove any requirement of similarity or commonality of features", as suggested in Velkoski at [164].
47In Velkoski, reliance was placed on BP v R (as well as R v PWD) as support for the proposition that this Court did not require any degree of similarity or commonality of features. In BP, Hodgson JA succinctly stated principles relevant to the application of s 97 at [106]-[111]. His approach is adequately revealed by the following passages:
"[108] It is not necessary in criminal cases that the incidents relied on as evidence of the tendency be closely similar to the circumstances of the alleged offence, or that the tendency be a tendency to act in a way (or have a state of mind) that is closely similar to the act or state of mind alleged against the accused; or that there be a striking pattern of similarity between the incidents relied on and what is alleged against the accused: Ford at [38], [125], PWD at [64]-[65]. However, generally the closer and more particular the similarities, the more likely it is that the evidence will have significant probative value.
...
[112] In my opinion, subject to the question of concoction, to which I will return, features of the appellant's conduct described by each complainant were sufficiently similar and sufficiently unusual for the evidence of each of them to have significant probative value in showing the specified tendencies; and the existence of those tendencies would have significant probative value in supporting other evidence that the appellant committed the offences charged. In my opinion, it is unusual for a parent or grandparent to do acts of the kind described by each witness, and the acts described by each, if accepted, would in my opinion to a very significant extent rationally affect the assessment of the probability of the appellant having an unusual sexual interest in his daughter and granddaughters and having a tendency to give effect to that interest in assaulting them; and the existence of those tendencies in turn would to a very significant extent rationally affect the assessment of the probability of the commission of the offences charged."
48It is not necessary to multiply examples: where relevant and appropriate, a proper consideration of similarities will constitute an essential part of the application of s 97, as this Court has accepted on numerous occasions.