(c) What is the content of the non-refoulement obligation?
59 General Comment 31 also throws light on the content of that obligation. It would appear that, in the Committee's opinion, there needs to be:
(a) substantial grounds;
(b) for a belief;
(c) that there is a real risk of harm;
(d) where that harm is of the irreparable kind contemplated by arts 6 and 7 (i.e. arbitrary deprivation of life and torture).
60 The Minister submitted that General Comment 31 was a correct statement of what was required, but that the 'real risk' element had been given further content by the Committee, which had treated it as synonymous with a 'necessary and foreseeable consequence' test.
61 This was said to be supported by what had been said by the Committee in ARJ v Australia. That case had concerned the proposed deportation by Australia to Iran of an Iranian who had been convicted of importing 2 kg of cannabis resin into Australia: at [2.1]. It was suggested that, on his return, he might be subjected to an unfair trial, imprisonment and thereafter torture. There were two passages in the Committee's reasons which were said by the Minister to be relevant:
6.8 What is in issue in this case is whether by deporting Mr. J to Iran, Australia exposes him to a real risk (that is a necessary and foreseeable consequence) of a violation of his rights under the Covenant.
…
6.14 In assessing whether, in the instant case, the author is exposed to a real risk of a violation of article 7, considerations similar to those detailed in paragraph 6.12 above apply. The Committee does not take lightly the possibility that if retried and resentenced in Iran, the author might be exposed to a sentence of between 20 and 74 lashes. But the real risk of such treatment must be real, i.e. be the necessary and foreseeable consequence of deportation to Iran.
(Emphasis in original.)
62 One should observe the high standard set by this test. A foreseeable consequence is one thing, but a 'necessary and foreseeable consequence' is another altogether. It is foreseeable that I may get wet on the way home today, but on no view is it both necessary and foreseeable that this should occur - the clouds may clear.
63 For the reasons given above, the decision of the Committee in ARJ v Australia is capable of throwing light on the issue. The test of 'necessary and foreseeable' had reflected the idea that the focus was on whether the harm alleged would occur. Earlier decisions of the Committee also supported that view: see, for example, Kindler v Canada (Communication No 470/1991, 30 July 1993, UN Doc CCPR/C/48/D/470/1991) at [6.2]; Cox v Canada (Communication No 539/1993, 31 October 1994, UN Doc CCPR/C/52/D/539/1993) at [10.4] and [16.1]; GT v Australia (Communication No 706/1996, 4 November 1997, UN Doc CCPR/C/61/D/706/1996) at [8.4] and [8.6].
64 Subsequently, there has been a shift in the Committee's approach. Whilst apparently still requiring that something be a necessary and foreseeable consequence of deportation, more recent decisions suggest that the something is not the harm itself but the risk of harm. This appears to have been the approach in Munaf v Romania (Communication No 1539/2006, 30 July 2009, UN Doc CCPR/C/96/D/1539/2006) at [14.2] and Yakupova v Uzbekistan (Communication No 1205/2003, 3 April 2008, CCPR/C/92/D/1205/2003) at [6.3]. More recently, the Committee considered the status of the 'necessary and foreseeable' test in Pillai v Canada (Communication No 1763/2008, 25 March 2011, UN Doc CCPR/C/101/D/1763/2008). The Committee expressed itself succinctly on the issue at [11.4], saying: 'the Committee recalls its General Comment No. 31 in which it refers to the obligations of States Parties not to extradite, deport, expel or otherwise remove a person from their territory where there are substantial grounds for believing that there is a real risk of irreparable harm'. Five members of the Committee (Ms Helen Keller, Ms Iulia Antoanella Motoc, Mr Gerald L. Neuman, Mr Michael O'Flaherty and Sir Nigel Rodley) wrote a concurring opinion. They expressed themselves in this way on the issue.
This Committee has also concluded that Article 7 requires attention to the real risks that the situation presents, and not only attention to what is certain to happen or what will most probably happen. General Comment No. 31, quoted above, demonstrates this focus. So do the Committee's Views and Decisions of the past decade. The phrasings have varied, and the Committee continues to refer on occasion to a "necessary and foreseeable consequence" of deportation. But when it inquires into such consequences, the Committee now asks whether a necessary and foreseeable consequence of the deportation would be a real risk of torture in the receiving State, not whether a necessary and foreseeable consequence would be the actual occurrence of torture.
[The footnote reads: See for example communication No. 1539/2006, Munaf v. Romania, Views adopted on 30 July 2009, para. 14.2 ("The risk of an extraterritorial violation must be a necessary and foreseeable consequence…"); communication No. 1205/2003, Yakupova v. Uzbekistan, Views adopted on 3 April 2008, para. 6.3 ("substantial grounds for believing that, as a necessary and foreseeable consequence of the transfer to Kazakhstan, there was a real risk that he would be subjected to treatment prohibited by Article 7."]
(Emphasis added.)
65 In a dissenting opinion, Mr Yuji Iwasawa said:
The concurring opinion of Ms. Keller and others points out that the Human Rights Committee in the recent decade asks whether the necessary and foreseeable consequence of the deportation would be a real risk of torture, rather than the actual occurrence of torture. The jurisprudence of the Committee is, however, not consistent. Even in recent years, the Committee asks whether the necessary and foreseeable consequence would be a violation of rights, rather than a real risk of a violation. [Footnote: Communication No. 1539/2006, Munaf v. Romania, Views adopted on 30 July 2009, para. 7.5.] Moreover, the Committee constantly cites as the authority A.R.J. v Australia, [Footnote: e.g., Communication No. 1544/2007, Hamida v. Canada, Views adopted on 18 Mar. 2010, para. 8.7, n.19] which sets out a necessary and foreseeable consequence of a violation as the test. Thus, the test of the Committee needs clarification.
66 The Minister submitted that this was not the basis of the decision in Pillai and, in this, he is strictly correct. The actual decision in Pillai turned on the failure of the Canadian authorities properly to ascertain what would happen to the authors of the communication (i.e. the complainants) if they were deported: see [11.3]-[11.4]. Nevertheless, I do not think it lessens what is otherwise an explicit statement by the Committee that what must be a necessary and foreseeable consequence of deportation is the risk of harm and not the harm itself.
67 In those circumstances, I conclude that art 2 of the ICCPR imposes on the Commonwealth an obligation not to deport Mr Anochie in the circumstances set out in General Comment 31 - as explained in Pillai - and that the question is whether a necessary and foreseeable consequence of deportation would be a real risk of irreparable harm. The kinds of harm in arts 6 and 7 may serve as a guide to the severity of what is required without being an exhaustive statement of the quality of that harm. The superaddition of the words 'substantial grounds for believing' do not add any additional requirements to the test. Domestic courts who have to consider this question would no doubt be assisted if the Committee could maintain some consistency of language, but I do not doubt that the test is as I have outlined.
68 In this case, the only harm relevant is the risk of torture, cruel, inhuman or degrading punishment (i.e. a violation of art 7), so my considered view that the obligation potentially extends beyond the harms in arts 6 and 7 is an obiter dictum. It is, however, an obiter dictum with considerable pedigree: see Human Rights Committee, General Comment No 15: The Position of Aliens under the Covenant (11 April 1986, UN Doc HRI/GEN/1/Rev.6) at 140 [4] ('in certain circumstances an alien may enjoy the protection of the Covenant even in relation to entry or residence, for example, when considerations of non-discrimination, prohibition of inhuman treatment and respect for family life arise'); in the context of the European Convention for the Protection of Human Rights and Fundamental Freedoms (1955) 213 UNTS 221, see Othman (Abu Qatada) v United Kingdom (2012) 55 EHRR 1 at 71-72; [2012] ECHR 56 at [231]-[233] and Ullah, R (on the Application of) v Special Adjudicator [2004] 2 AC 323; [2004] UKHL 26 at [1], [21] and [24] per Lord Bingham, [29] and [50] per Lord Steyn, and [62]-[70] per Lord Carswell. See also Senate Legal and Constitutional Affairs Legislation Committee, Parliament of Australia, Migration Amendment (Complementary Protection) Bill 2009 [Provisions] (2009) at [3.12]-[3.13], and the following submissions to that inquiry: Australian Human Rights Commission, Submission No 32, 30 September 2009 at [31]-[36]; Refugee Council of Australia, Submission No 10, 28 September 2009 at 2-4; Human Rights Law Resource Centre, Submission No 5, September 2009 at [16]-[19].
69 It should be pointed out at this juncture (as foreshadowed above at [29]) that the correct test differs from that set out in the specific clause of Direction 41 in two material ways. First, the correct test includes, as an element, the concept of a 'necessary and foreseeable consequence', whereas the specific clause speaks of a 'necessary or foreseeable consequence'. Secondly, the consequence to be contemplated is the risk of 'irreparable harm', such as that envisaged by arts 6 and 7; it is not limited to the risk of violations of arts 6 or 7.
70 The Minister also submitted there needed to be a finding of irreparable harm in fact. I reject this submission. General Comment 31 is concerned with 'irreparable harm, such as that contemplated by articles 6 and 7 of the Covenant' (my emphasis). All contraventions of arts 6 and 7 are irreparable harms and no further finding is necessary. The General Comment makes clear that contraventions of arts 6 and 7 are examples of irreparable harm (and, as I have noted above, there may be others). This is consistent with common sense. To be killed is certainly irreparable but it would take a certain outlook, which I would hope few people share, to think that being tortured did not also involve irreparable harm.