(b) Amended ground 2 and perverse or illogical reasoning and/or findings by AAT on risk of re-offending
52 As is evident from the summaries of the parties' respective submissions above, there was substantial agreement as to the applicable principles in determining whether the AAT's reasons and findings regarding the risk of the applicant re-offending were unreasonable in the legal sense (or perverse, irrational or illogical) within the framework of jurisdictional error. There are several fundamental points to emphasise (noting that, some of the general principles set out below are drawn from cases involving judicial review for jurisdictional error of statutory discretions other than s 501CA(4)).
53 First, the Minister accepted that the AAT's decision under s 501CA(4) of the Act involved the exercise of a discretionary power which attracted the general principles of review for unreasonableness in the legal sense in respect of statutory discretions, as stated in Li and explained and applied in subsequent Full Court authorities.
54 Secondly, review for legal unreasonableness is "invariably fact dependent" (Singh at [42]).
55 Thirdly, where reasons are available (as is the case here) the focus in applying the legal unreasonableness ground is on those reasons with a view to determining whether there is an intelligible and rational justification for the impugned finding and/or decision (Singh at [46] and [47]).
56 Fourthly, that said, reasons should not be construed by a judicial review court with "an eye keenly attuned to the perception of error" (Minister for Immigration and Ethnic Affairs v Wu Shan Liang [1996] HCA 6; 185 CLR 259 at [30]).
57 Fifthly, a determination in a judicial review proceeding whether or not there is illogical or irrational reasoning in the course of fact-finding occurs under the rubric of review for jurisdictional error, of which materiality is an essential requirement (Hossain at [25], [30] and [31]; Vo at [43] and Muggeridge at [35]).
58 Sixthly, because Direction 65 bound the AAT, it was obliged in considering the risk to the Australian community to have regard to, cumulatively:
(a) the nature of the harm to individuals or the Australian community should the non-citizen engage in further criminal or other serious conduct (cl 13.1.2(2)); and
(b) the likelihood of the non-citizen engaging in further criminal or other serious conduct, taking into account information and evidence on the risk of the non-citizen re-offending (cl 13.1.2(2)).
59 Seventhly, the AAT's evaluation and findings concerning the risk of re-offending had to be logical and rational and comply with the principles identified in cases such as Muggeridge.
60 Eighthly, it is generally insufficient that a complaint of unreasonableness or perversity in respect of fact-finding or decision-making is based on the weight given to particular evidence or material because the assessment of weight is entrusted to the administrative decision-maker (subject to appropriate legal constraints) and the mere fact that the Court disagrees with factual findings or reasoning does not produce jurisdictional error (Minister for Immigration and Multicultural Affairs v Eshetu [1999] HCA 21; 197 CLR 611 at [40] and Vo at [43]).
61 Ninthly, any error must be so grave in its nature and in the significance of its subject matter that it results in a decision that has been reasoned in a manner which is not authorised (Hossain at [25], [30]-[31] and Vo at [43]). As Allsop CJ observed in Stretton at [12]:
12. Crucial to remember, however, is that the task for the Court is not to assess what it thinks is reasonable and thereby conclude (as if in an appeal concerning breach of duty of care) that any other view displays error; rather, the task is to evaluate the quality of the decision, by reference to the statutory source of the power and thus, from its scope, purpose and objects to assess whether it is lawful. The undertaking of that task may see the decision characterised as legally unreasonable whether because of specific identifiable jurisdictional error, or the conclusion or outcome reached, or the reasoning process utilised.
62 Tenthly, as the plurality observed in Minister for Immigration and Citizenship v SZJSS [2010] HCA 48; 243 CLR 164 at [34] it "has been recognised that to describe reasoning as irrational or unreasonable may merely be an emphatic way of disagreeing with it".
63 Finally, the following observations of the Full Court in ARG15 v Minister for Immigration and Border Protection [2016] FCAFC 174; 250 FCR 109 at [47] are apposite:
47. Subsequent authorities have established that, for a decision to be vitiated for jurisdictional error based on illogical or irrational findings of fact or reason, "extreme" illogicality or irrationality must be shown "measured against the standard that it is not enough for the question of fact to be one on which reasonable minds may come to different conclusions and against the framework of the inquiry being as to whether or not there has been jurisdictional error on the part of the Tribunal" (see Minister for Immigration and Citizenship v SZRKT [2013] FCA 317; 212 FCR 99 (SZRKT) at [148] per Robertson J; SZOOR v Minister for Immigration and Citizenship [2012] FCAFC 58; 202 FCR 1 (SZOOR) at [84] per McKerracher J (with whom Reeves J agreed); and Minister for Immigration and Border Protection v SZUXN [2016] FCA 516 at [52] per Wigney J). Illogicality or irrationality in that extreme sense may be considered not only in relation to the end result, but also extends to fact finding which leads to the end result, albeit that, as Robertson J emphasised in SZRKT at [151], the overarching question is whether the decision was affected by jurisdictional error (see also the observations of Beech-Jones J in BKE v Office of Children's Guardian [2015] NSWSC 523 at [113] and the cases referred to therein).
64 There is also a helpful discussion of the relevant principles in Justice Robertson's article, "The Federal Court and Administrative Law : How Does the Court Deal with Findings of Fact on Judicial Review?" in Ridge and Stellios, The Federal Court's Contribution to Australian Law, 2018, The Federation Press, 83 at 98-101.
65 With these general principles in mind, and appreciating the need for self-restraint, I shall now explain why, despite the AAT's otherwise careful analysis, I consider that the AAT fell into jurisdictional error in its analysis of the psychologists' evidence and the consequential findings it made on the risk of the applicant re-offending.
66 First, there may be ongoing debate as to whether the risk of harm to the Australian community and the likelihood of a non-citizen re-offending are mandatory relevant considerations where the Minister personally makes a decision under either ss 501(2) or 501CA(4) (see, for example Moana v Minister for Immigration and Border Protection [2015] FCAFC 54; 230 FCR 367; Ayoub v Minister for Immigration and Border Protection [2015] 231 FCR 513; Brown v Minister for Immigration and Border Protection [2015] FCAFC 141; 235 FCR 88 at [41] and AZAFQ v Minister for Immigration and Border Protection [2016] FCAFC 105; 243 FCR 451 at [55] and Minister for Home Affairs v Ogawa [2019] FCAFC 98 at [71]), but the binding nature of Direction 65 on the AAT puts the issue beyond doubt here. As noted above, cl 13.1.2(2) obliges the AAT to have regard to the likelihood of the non-citizen engaging in further criminal or other serious conduct, taking into account available information and evidence on the risk of the non-citizen re-offending.
67 Secondly, the AAT assessed the information and evidence before it on the risk of the applicant re-offending, including the expert evidence contained in the Green and Watson-Munro Reports.
68 Thirdly, the AAT identified various concerns which it had with the reliability of the final conclusions by both Mr Green and Mr Watson-Munro. The concerns it had with Mr Green's Report are identified in T[103], while its concerns with Mr Watson-Munro's Report are identified in T[100], [102] and [104]-[105]. It also expressed some concerns regarding the offer of employment by Mr Nguyen and the sustainability of the potential employment even though it accepted that the offer of employment was genuine. This matter was important because of its relevance to Mr Watson-Munro's evidence that he considered that stable employment would reduce the chances of the applicant re-offending.
69 Fourthly, in the light of the AAT's expressed concerns with the reliability of the final conclusions on the risk of re-offending in both experts' reports and its concerns regarding the sustainability of Mr Nguyen's offer of employment, the AAT made a key finding at T[111] (see [20] above]) that the risk of the applicant re-offending was "within the ranges" provided by Mr Green and Mr Watson-Munro. The AAT then added at T[111] that it found that there is "a 'low' to 'low to moderate' risk" of re-offending, a finding which it repeated in substantially similar terms in both T[113] and [114].
70 Fifthly, there are many ways in which an assessment of risk of a person reoffending may be expressed by a decision-maker. It might be expressed quantitatively (e.g. by a percentage figure or a range of percentage figures) or qualitatively (e.g. by categories along a spectrum such as "nil", "low", "low to moderate", "moderate", "moderate to high", "high" or "certain"). Direction 65 does not stipulate any particular standard. How the AAT is to express its assessment of risk of re-offending is largely left to it.
71 Sixthly, both Mr Green and Mr Watson-Munro used qualitative assessments of the risk of the applicant re-offending, which were expressed respectively as "low to moderate" and "low". Mr Green's assessment of "low to moderate" necessarily involved an internal range from "low to moderate", whereas Mr Watson-Munro simply assessed the risk as "low".
72 Finally, against those background matters, the AAT's approach and findings regarding the risk of the applicant re-offending are illogical or irrational in the relevant sense required by the authorities because:
(a) in spite of the AAT's stated concerns with the reliability of the final conclusions on recidivism in both experts' reports, the AAT inexplicably proceeded to accept both those assessments and use them effectively as bookends to a range which is expressed by the AAT as "'low' to 'low to moderate' risk" that the applicant will re-offend;
(b) because of the AAT's stated concerns with both experts' conclusions, it would have been logical and rational for the AAT to have come to a determination of risk which was different from them both. Instead, the AAT illogically and irrationally determined to use both conclusions to mark` the limits of the range determined by it. I accept the applicant's submission that the AAT effectively had an "each way bet", which inexplicably drew upon the conclusions of both experts notwithstanding that the AAT was critical of both those conclusions; and
(c) focussing as one should on the AAT's reasons, no intelligible or rational justification is discernible for the AAT's approach and findings on risk. For example, apart from saying that it had considered the sentencing judge's views on rehabilitation, the AAT does not explain why it adopted as part of its range of the level of risk the conclusions of both experts notwithstanding its stated concerns with aspects of both experts' final conclusions and parts of their analyses. It is left entirely unclear whether the AAT used those conclusions to define the outer limits of its assessment of risk based on selected parts of the experts' analyses with which the AAT had no concerns, together with the additional material before it, including the oral evidence of Mr Watson-Munro, or some other undisclosed basis.
73 The illogicality is not overcome by the AAT's description in T[114], [222] and [249] that it did not consider the risk to be "insignificant". That reasoning is necessarily based upon the AAT's earlier findings that there is a "'low' to 'low to moderate'" risk or likelihood that the applicant will re-offend.
74 There can be no doubt that, assuming that the Tribunal's reasoning and findings are illogical, they were material to its decision to dismiss the applicant's review application. So much is apparent from the AAT's reasons in T[114] relating to its assessment of the primary consideration of the protection of the Australian community, as well as at T[126] and [127] where the AAT took into account the risk of the applicant re-offending in determining the primary consideration of the best interests of the applicant's daughter and step-daughter. Similarly, I have no hesitation in finding that the AAT's error has sufficient gravity to rise to the level of a jurisdictional error.
75 There is one other matter to note. It relates to the validity of one of the matters relied upon by the AAT as giving rise to its concerns regarding Mr Watson-Munro's Report. As is evident from T[100] and [101], the AAT considered that Mr Watson-Munro had acknowledged that, if the applicant had provided him with false information as to whether he had completed a Master's degree in Australia, this may have affected his assessment of the applicant's risk of reoffending. This does not accurately reflect Mr Watson-Munro's evidence, as the applicant pointed out. I do not consider, however, that this error, standing alone, rises to the level of a jurisdictional error, nor does it inform a consideration of whether the AAT's reasoning and findings are logical and rational.
76 It is understandable that the AAT said candidly at T[249] that it considered this to be a difficult case to decide. This Court is not concerned with the merits of the AAT's decision. But for the reasons given above, ground 2 is upheld.