(a) overtopping of Windsor Road with flood flows travelling in a north-easterly direction;
(b) overtopping of Nelson Road at Culvert MD2;
(c) spilling of flows from the Killarney Chain of Ponds Creek downstream of Culvert MH9 into the subject property in a generally easterly direction.
There may also be potential for flood flows to surcharge Culvert MB1 and flow into the subject site in a generally north westerly direction.
26 Mr Bewsher did not carry out detailed modelling but reviewed Mr Rowbottom's modelling. In his initial report, he agreed with Mr Rowbottom's modelling in relation to the 100 year ARI flood but disagreed in relation to minor flood events, as follows:
17. Subject to the qualifications presented in Paragraphs 18-20 below, I believe the RTA's modelling provides a reasonable approximation of flow behaviour over the site during major events such as the 100 year flood. Given the complex behaviour and the models used, I would anticipate that the flow predictions made by the RTA's consultants were accurate to + 30% and the flood level predictions are within + 0.3 to + 0.5m. Subject to these inaccuracies, the model would still provide, in my opinion, a reasonable basis from which to assess development potential.
18. In smaller events (say those less than a 20 year flood, say the 1 year, 2 year and 5 year ARI events) overtopping of Windsor Road would not occur and the RTAs modelling indicates that the flows coming into the southern part of the site would occur from three sources under "pre" and "post" works scenarios:
(a) from culvert MD2;
(b) from the Windsor Road table drain adjacent to the site (or the 675mm diameter pipe which is proposed as a replacement for the table drain);
(c) overtopping of the fill in Lot 112.
19. In my opinion, it is unlikely that the RTA's modelling correctly predicts the flooding mechanisms (a) or (b) referred to in paragraph 18 above, for the "pre" works scenario. I say this because the old MD2 culvert delivered flows to the Windsor Road table drain and thence to the Creek, and had not been observed to overtop onto the property.
27 Mr Bewsher in this report assessed the capacity of the Windsor Road table drain approaching culvert MD2 as follows:
20. I have also carried out a preliminary hydraulic assessment of the hydraulic capacity of the Windsor Road table drain upstream of culvert MD2 which suggests that " pre" works, a maximum of only about 1m3/sec would reach the upstream side of culvert MD2. Flows in excess of this amount would cross Windsor Road in a westerly direction. In addition, flows arriving at the entrance to MD2 could also flow towards MB1.
21. In Figure 1, I have summarised my assessment of the changes inflows which will occur on the site as a result of the RTA's works. As shown on the figure:
(a) flows from MD2 would be increased in minor and major floods. (I use the term "major flood" to indicate floods generally in excess of about a 20 year flood when significant overtopping of Windsor Road occurs);
(b) flows overtopping Windsor Road in major floods would be eliminated; and
(c) flows from Lot 112 would be increased in major floods and there would be little change in minor floods, or possibly a small increase.
22. In my opinion, in major floods the net flow coming on to the site from all sources will decrease, but will be increased in minor floods.
28 Mr Bewsher's conclusions included the following:
39. In minor floods (such as the 5 year event) when waters would not have overtopped Windsor Road in the "before" situation, the RTA's works will divert more water onto the subject site. In major floods (such as the 100 year event) when significant flows would have been overtopping Windsor Road in the "before" situation, the RTA's works will eliminate such overtopping. Whilst in this situation some additional flows will still be coming onto the subject site from culvert MD2, the net effect of all flow changes will be a reduction in total flows coming onto the site.
40. As the flood behaviour which occurs in the 100 year event is usually one of the primary considerations for the Council when assessing development options on a site, the net reduction in flows coming onto the subject site in this event will likely lead to some reduction in the cost of developing the site to overcome its flood problems (assuming the full extent of the flood problem was known to the Council and the developer).
41. In summary, having regard only to flooding issues, there appears to be a net detriment to the site in minor floods and a net benefit to the site in major floods.
29 In a joint report, the flood experts agreed the accuracy of Mr Rowbottom's models as follows:
Accuracy of RTA's Hydrologic Model
24. The experts agree that the hydrological model is likely to be accurate to within + 30%. The experts also agree that the order of accuracy is consistent with best practice.