Grant Samuel independent expert report
10 The scheme booklet included an independent expert report prepared by Grant Samuel & Associates Pty Limited ("Grant Samuel") and dated 12 October 2018. This report concluded that the proposed scheme is in the best interests of Fairfax shareholders.
11 In my first judgment, at [17], I set out the following extract from the draft report, which was in the same terms as the report included in the scheme booklet:
The Scheme brings together two traditional Australian media groups with complementary businesses to create a leading integrated, diversified Australian media business with multiple digital and traditional assets. It involves Nine acquiring 100% of the shares in Fairfax but, while the Scheme is technically a control transaction, the commercial reality is that, from a shareholder's perspective, it is a merger. Fairfax shareholders will, in aggregate, own 48.9% of the Combined Group and Nine shareholders will own 51.1%.
Accordingly, the analysis of fairness is different to that for a conventional control transaction. Rather than estimating the full underlying value of Fairfax including a control premium, the Scheme will be fair to Fairfax shareholders if the share of the value of the Combined Group received by them is equal to (or greater than) their proportionate contribution of value. Specifically, Grant Samuel has considered the relative contributions of sharemarket value and fundamental (underlying) value.
On the basis of sharemarket value, the aggregate interest of Fairfax shareholders in the Combined Group is materially favourable in comparison to the share contributed by them (reflecting the premium inherent in the Scheme terms at the time of announcement). Based on share prices over the three months prior to announcement of the Scheme on 26 July 2018, Fairfax shareholders are contributing approximately 45% of the value but are receiving a 48.9% share of the value. The outcome is similar in terms of relative contributions of fundamental value. Based on Grant Samuel's estimate of fundamental value, Fairfax shareholders are contributing approximately 45% of equity value compared to the 49.5% of that value they will receive (i.e. 48.9% of the Combined Group plus 2.5 cents per Fairfax share). In effect, Nine is "paying away" synergy benefits arising from the merger to Fairfax shareholders to enhance the attraction of the transaction to Fairfax shareholders. The premium also provides Fairfax shareholders with some level of "insurance" against any post announcement weakness in the Nine share price.
12 This extract makes it clear that Grant Samuel assessed the scheme on the basis that it was a merger, and was not, in its view, to be assessed as a conventional control transaction.
13 Under the hearing "Key Conclusions", the report states:
The terms of the Scheme are fair to Fairfax shareholders
The Scheme involves Nine acquiring 100% of the shares in Fairfax. In a typical control transaction, fairness involves comparing the full underlying value of the target with the value of the offer (with any scrip component to be valued at "market" value (i.e. minority value)). However, while there are factors that would suggest that there is a "change of control" (e.g. the proposed board and CEO), upon implementation of the Scheme, Fairfax shareholders will, in aggregate, own 48.9% of the Combined Group, there will be no controlling shareholder and Fairfax shareholders will retain the opportunity to receive a control premium at some time in the future. On this basis, in Grant Samuel's opinion, the better view is that merger analysis is the appropriate basis on which to evaluate fairness.
Accordingly, in assessing fairness, rather than estimating the full underlying value of Fairfax including a premium for control, Grant Samuel has compared the share of the value of the Combined Group received by Fairfax shareholders with the relative contribution by Fairfax shareholders of sharemarket value and fundamental (underlying) value.
14 Mr Catalano submitted that the Grant Samuel report gave prominence to share market value, noting the following statement:
Based on a Nine share price of $2.25, the Scheme provides to Fairfax shareholders consideration with a market value of $.084 per Fairfax share which does not correspond to a full takeover value of Fairfax (although a full premium for control should not be expected given the transaction is essentially a merger).
15 In further support of this submission, Mr Catalano drew attention to the bolded words in the passage from the report set out at [11] above.
16 Mr Catalano submitted, and it was not disputed, that the emphasis placed by the Grant Samuel report (and the scheme booklet) on the share market value of the scheme for Fairfax shareholders was understandable because the overwhelming majority of the consideration offered to those shareholders was in the nature of scrip, not cash.
17 Mr Catalano also referred to Section 7.2.3 of the report, entitled "Takeover Analysis". In that section, Grant Samuel noted that, while Grant Samuel did not consider it to be the appropriate basis for evaluation, the scheme could also be looked at as a takeover/control transaction. Grant Samuel performed an analysis of the value parameters of the scheme based on various alternative Nine share prices, from $2.15 to $2.75. The Grant Samuel report calculated premiums ranging from 4.5% to 32.8%, and noted most relevantly that:
(1) based on a Nine share price of $2.25, the scheme did not provide Fairfax shareholders with consideration that corresponded to a full takeover value of Fairfax; and
(2) at prices of $2.55 and above, Fairfax shareholders would be receiving a substantial premium and a significant payment for synergies.
18 Grant Samuel expressed the view that it was reasonable to expect some improvement in the Nine share price once there was certainty about the implementation of the scheme and as evidence of the achievement of expected cost synergies emerges.
19 Senior counsel for Mr Catalano, Andrew Broadfoot QC submitted that the takeover analysis was done on a basis that was divorced from reality as at the date that the shareholders were asked to vote, having regard to the significant decline in the Nine share price to $1.63 on the morning of the scheme meeting. Using Grant Samuel's fundamental value analysis and a Nine share price of $1.63, Mr Catalano calculated that the value of the scheme per Fairfax share was $0.59 on which basis, he contended, the scheme would result in Fairfax shareholders being "short-changed by nearly $600 million".
20 However, as Mr Jackman SC observed, the Grant Samuel report did not attempt to predict the Nine share price at the scheme meeting. Moreover, Mr Jackman SC argued, it was absolutely obvious to any shareholder with an interest in approaching the scheme as a control transaction, that $1.63 was well below what Grant Samuel had identified as the kind of Nine share price which would be needed to justify the transaction as a control transaction.