SECOND GROUND
27 The second ground of appeal concerns the manner in which the IAA assessed the chance of serious harm to the Appellant from the Iranian authorities in the reasonably foreseeable future.
28 The IAA addressed the issue of whether the Appellant would face a real chance of serious harm from the Iranian authorities on the basis of committing adultery, now or in the reasonably foreseeable future, in the following terms (at [15]-[16]):
[15] The [Appellant] has not directly claimed a fear of harm from the Iranian authorities as a result of his affair with M. Nor has he indicated that his actions have come to the attention of the Iranian authorities. At his TPV interview, the [Appellant] claimed that M's tribe may have taken legal action or taken the matter to court and as far as he knew they might have done that. When questioned regarding why he thought the other tribe may have done that, the [Appellant] responded that other tribes would make fun of M's tribe and they would need to take it into their own hands. Although I have found the applicant generally credible, there is no other evidence before me to suggest that he has any outstanding court matter in Iran regarding his adulterous relationship with M, and I consider this aspect of his claims to be speculative. I am not satisfied, on the evidence before me, that M's family reported the adulterous relationship to the authorities. I note that the [Appellant] stated in his TPV application that he would call his family about twice a week to check up on their situation. I would expect that if something had happened to M or if there was any outstanding legal action against him, his family would have informed him. I am not satisfied that there is any outstanding legal action pending against the [Appellant]. I am also not satisfied that the Iranian authorities, including the Basij, Etelaat or any other Iranian authority are aware of, or have any interest in, the [Appellant]'s relationship with M.
[16] I am not satisfied that the [Appellant] would face a real chance of serious harm from the Iranian authorities on the basis of committing adultery now or in the reasonably foreseeable future.
29 The Appellant submitted that the IAA assessed the chance of harm from the Iranian authorities based upon whether, at the time of its assessment, there was an outstanding court matter in Iran regarding his adulterous relationship with M and whether M's family had reported the adulterous relationship to the authorities. The Appellant submitted that, in making its assessment, the IAA had failed to discharge its obligation to assess the chance of harm into the reasonably foreseeable future by failing to consider whether the Appellant might come to the attention of the authorities in the future, upon removal from Australia to Iran. In particular, the IAA did not consider whether the return of the Appellant to Iran would prompt M's family to report the adultery to the authorities.
30 It was not disputed that, in performing its task of addressing whether the Appellant satisfied the criteria for a protection visa in s 36 of the Act, the IAA was required to consider whether the Appellant would face a real chance of serious harm if the Appellant were returned to Iran (see ss 36(2)(a), 5H and 5J) or a real risk of suffering significant harm as a necessary and foreseeable consequence of being removed from Australia to Iran (s 36(2)(aa)). Nor was it disputed that the Tribunal was required to assess the risk of such harm in the foreseeable future: see, eg, SZGHS v Minister for Immigration and Citizenship [2007] FCA 1572 at [2] (Allsop J); AIE15 v Minister for Immigration and Border Protection [2018] FCA 610 at [26] (Perry J). What is meant by that risk of harm was described by Mortimer J in CPE15 v Minister for Immigration and Border Protection [2017] FCA 591 at [59]-[60]:
[59] In my opinion, the prospects of success of the proposed new ground of appeal depend in part on the understanding of what is meant by the now well-established and orthodox approach to the determination of risk of harm to a person occurring in the future: that is, is there a real chance a person may suffer serious harm on return to her or his country and nationality: see generally Chan Yee Kin v Minister for Immigration (1989) 169 CLR 379 at 389 (Mason CJ), 398 (Dawson J), 407 (Toohey J), 429 (McHugh J). To make that assessment, there must be speculation about the future, and the period of time throughout which that speculative task must be carried out has been expressed to include so much of the future as is "foreseeable" or "reasonably foreseeable": see Minister for Immigration and Ethnic Affairs v Wu Shan Liang [1996] HCA 6; 185 CLR 259 at 279 (Brennan CJ, Toohey, McHugh and Gummow JJ); NAHI v Minister for Immigration and Multicultural and Indigenous Affairs [2004] FCAFC 10 at [13]; Iyer v Minister for Immigration and Multicultural Affairs [2000] FCA 1788 at [27] (Heerey, Moore, Goldberg JJ); SZQXE v Minister for Immigration and Citizenship [2012] FCA 1292 at [7] (Flick J).
[60] The "reasonably foreseeable future" is something of an ambulatory period of time, but the use of reasonable foreseeability as the benchmark concept indicates that the assessment is intended to be one which can be made on the basis of probative material, without extending into guesswork. It is also intended to preclude predictions of the future that are so far removed in point of time from the life of the person concerned at the time the person is returned to her or his country of nationality as to bear insufficient connection to the reality of what that person may experience.
31 The Appellant sought to cavil with the manner in which the IAA had come to the conclusion that the Appellant would not face a real chance of serious harm from the Iranian Authorities in the reasonably foreseeable future on the basis that the IAA did not have regard to the risk that, as a consequence of the Appellant returning to Iran, M's family might be motivated to report M to the authorities, notwithstanding that the family had not done so to date.
32 The Appellant, in written submissions, referred to the decision of the High Court in Minister for Immigration and Ethnic Affairs v Guo (1997) 191 CLR 559 at 574-5 (Brennan CJ, Dawson, Toohey, Gaudron, McHugh and Gummow JJ). The High Court there stated:
In determining whether there was a real chance that Mr Guo would be persecuted for a Convention reason, the Tribunal had no choice but to form an opinion as to what was likely to occur if Mr Guo was returned to the PRC. In the course of determining whether there was a real chance of persecution for such a reason, the Tribunal made findings about past events and the motivation of the Chinese authorities in penalising Mr Guo, as it was entitled and, indeed, bound to do (s 166E(1) of the Act). It then used those findings as the basis for its conclusion that there was no chance of future persecution. But that does not mean that it decided the well-founded fear of persecution issue on the balance of probabilities.
The course of the future is not predictable, but the degree of probability that an event will occur is often, perhaps usually, assessable. Past events are not a certain guide to the future, but in many areas of life proof that events have occurred often provides a reliable basis for determining the probability - high or low - of their recurrence. The extent to which past events are a guide to the future depends on the degree of probability that they have occurred, the regularity with which and the conditions under which they have or probably have occurred and the likelihood that the introduction of new or other events may distort the cycle of regularity. In many cases, when the past has been evaluated, the probability that an event will occur may border on certainty. In other cases, the probability that an event will occur may be so low that, for practical purposes, it can be safely disregarded. In between these extremes, there are varying degrees of probability as to whether an event will or will not occur. But unless a person or tribunal attempts to determine what is likely to occur in the future in relation to a relevant field of inquiry, that person or tribunal has no rational basis for determining the chance of an event in that field occurring in the future.
Determining whether there is a real chance that something will occur requires an estimation of the likelihood that one or more events will give rise to the occurrence of that thing. In many, if not most cases, determining what is likely to occur in the future will require findings as to what has occurred in the past because what has occurred in the past is likely to be the most reliable guide as to what will happen in the future. It is therefore ordinarily an integral part of the process of making a determination concerning the chance of something occurring in the future that conclusions are formed concerning past events.
33 The IAA was required to consider the reasonably foreseeable future in the context of the claims made: see, eg, SZGHS [2007] FCA 1572 at [28] (Allsop J). No specific claim was made that the Appellant faced a real chance of harm in the foreseeable future on the basis that, should the Appellant return to Iran, M's family might be motivated to report M to the authorities, notwithstanding the family had not done so to date. Nor was there a basis on which it could be said that such a claim clearly emerged from the materials before it. The IAA recorded (at [15]) that the Appellant had not "directly claimed a fear of harm from the Iranian authorities as a result of his affair with M" and had not claimed that his actions had come to the attention of the Iranian authorities to date, including during the time in which he had remained in Iran. In light of the fact that no report had been made to the Iranian authorities at any time while the Appellant had been Iran, a claim that his return to Iran would prompt M's family to so report him does not clearly emerge from the materials before the IAA.
34 In assessing the risk of harm, the IAA was required to engage in reasonable speculation about what might occur in the future. The IAA formed its assessment that the Appellant would not face a real chance of serious harm from the Iranian authorities in the foreseeable future based on what had occurred to date. It was open to the IAA to do so in the context of the claims made and the evidence before it. The second ground of appeal does not support a conclusion that there was jurisdictional error.