The reasons of the IAA
42 The detailed reasons of the IAA relevant to this ground were as follows:
43. Beyond the serious but confined threat posed by Islamic State, there is no other indication in the country information of any escalation in other persecutory conduct against Hazara Shias in Mazar-e-Sharif or other cities such as Kabul, whether by Islamic State, the Taliban or any other AGE [anti-government element]. The groups with a risk profile in these cities, and those at threat from the Taliban and other AGEs, remain those associated with the government, the military, the media or the international community. I am satisfied the applicant has no such profile.
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45. While I accept the potential for future attacks against Hazara Shia[s] in urban areas like Mazar-e-Sharif and Kabul cannot be discounted entirely, I give significant weight to the information before me that indicates that Islamic State's presence (both geographically and in terms of numbers) and capacity to orchestrate attacks in the country in the reasonably foreseeable future is limited, and that the group remains under considerable pressure from Afghan forces, US air strikes and the Taliban. I have also weighed the information before me about the strong security presences in both Mazar-e-Sharif and Kabul. I again note that there is little evidence of other systematic or persecutory conduct towards religious or ethnic minorities in these cities, and that attacks against religious and ethnic groups have been rare. Outside of my assessment of Islamic State, I am satisfied there is no real chance of the applicant being seriously harmed for reasons of his ethnicity or religion in Mazar-e-Sharif by the Taliban or any other AGE.
46. The applicant expressed concerns about the suggestion that Mazar-e-Sharif is one of the safer cities in Afghanistan, highlighting that the same used to be said about Kabul. I accept there is insecurity in Mazar-e-Sharif, and the proximity of the Balkh attack is a concern, however the information before me does not indicate that Islamic State has orchestrated attacks against Hazara Shias in the city, or that the group yet has the presence or capacity to do so in the future. Nor does it indicate there is a real chance or real risk of sectarianism taking hold in the city or the country more broadly. I accept there is evidence of general insecurity and AGE attacks against government and international presences in the city, however this is consistent with general security situation in the country and that information does not indicate that Hazara Shias are at a real chance of being harmed with [sic] Mazar-e-Sharif.
47. Considering all the information before me, I find that future attacks on the Hazara Shia population in Afghanistan by Islamic State are likely to be occasional or infrequent, and that Islamic State's capacity and presence in the country is limited, and what presence it has is under threat from Afghan and international forces, as well as the Taliban. While the information before me indicates that future attacks may occur, I am not satisfied that the threat from Islamic State is at a scale or frequency where there is a real chance of the applicant being seriously harmed by the group for reasons of his religion or ethnicity. I find that the chance of the applicant being harmed for these reasons is reduced even further in the context of Mazar-e-Sharif, which remains one of the safer cities in Afghanistan and has not experienced an attack against its Hazara Shia population since 2011. I am also satisfied that the attacks are not yet an indication of a return to sectarianism in the country in the reasonably foreseeable future. Based on all the information before me, I find there is not a real chance of the applicant being seriously harmed in Mazar-e-Sharif for reasons of his ethnicity or religion, by Islamic State or any other AGE active in these areas.
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54. Due to the ongoing conflict in the country, I have considered the issue of generalised violence. The applicant claims he fears that the risks will increase when the foreign forces withdraw. I note that while there has been a reduction in the international military presence, the US maintains a military presence in the country and is likely to do so for some time. I accept there are indicators that the security situation in Afghanistan continues to decline, however there is no indication in that information that the government or security forces are losing control of Mazar-e-Sharif (or Kabul), or that there has been an evolution or shift in the profiles of those most at risk within urban areas - being those who work for the government and the international community. While I accept there are growing security risks within Mazar-e-Sharif, Kabul and other cities, when having regard to the size and diversity of the population in Mazar-e-Sharif, the significant security and armed presence and government control in these cities, and the applicant's lack of any profile or proximity to those with a risk profile, I find the chance of the applicant being harmed in generalised violence within Mazar-e-Sharif is remote. Accordingly, I am satisfied there is not a real chance of him facing serious harm on this basis.
Refugee: conclusion
56. Looking to all the circumstances, I am satisfied there is no real chance of the applicant being seriously harmed for reasons of his religion, his ethnicity, as a person returning from the west, an imputed pro-west or anti-Taliban political opinion, as an asylum seeker, or for any other related profile, or in generalised violence. I accept there is a real chance of the applicant being seriously harmed in his home area in Ghazni for reasons of his past transport business (whether that be characterised as an actual or imputed political opinion of a person against the Taliban, his membership of a particular social group of persons with and [sic] actual or imputed connection to the government or international community, or another related profile). However, I am not satisfied that this real chance of persecution relates to all areas of the receiving country. I find that s.5J(1)(a) and (c) are not met.
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Complementary protection assessment
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61. I have found there is no real chance of the applicant being seriously harmed for reasons of his religion, his ethnicity, as a person returning from the west, an actual or imputed pro-west or anti-Taliban political opinion, as an asylum seeker, or for any other related profile. For the same reasons, and applying the authority in MIAC v SZQRB (2013) 210 FCR 505, I am satisfied there is not a real risk of the applicant facing significant harm if he returns to Afghanistan.
62. I have found above that the applicant is from a village in Moqur district in Ghazni province, and there is a real chance that he would be seriously harmed if he returns to and lives in his home area for reasons related to his past transport business. For the same reasons, I am also satisfied that there are substantial grounds for believing that, as a necessary and foreseeable consequence of the applicant's removal to Afghanistan, the applicant will face a real risk of significant harm if he returns to and lives in his home area. However, I am satisfied this risk is confined to his home area, and there is no real risk of him facing significant harm outside of this area, such as in Mazar-e-Sharif.
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64. I have found that there is not a real chance of the applicant being seriously harmed in generalised violence. For the same reasons, having regard to the prevailing country information on the security situation in Afghanistan, the high level of security and safety in Mazar-e-Sharif, and the applicant's lack of a risk profile or proximity to anyone with such a profile, I am satisfied there is not a real risk of the applicant being significantly harmed on this basis if he returns to Afghanistan.
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68. I have found that the applicant does not have a profile with the Taliban outside of his home area. I have also found that neither his brother nor any other member of his family is currently under threat from the Taliban. Nevertheless, I accept that the security and economic situations in parts of Ghazni are difficult and that the stresses for his family are significant. I accept there are security concerns in the province, however, I have found that his family are not specifically at risk from the Taliban or any other person or group. Nevertheless, I have weighed that against the question of whether it is reasonable for him to relocate.
69. The applicant contends that while Mazar-e-Sharif may be considered safe, he compares it to the situation of Kabul which was in the past described as a safe haven prior to recently becoming an increasing target of insurgents. He expresses concerns that if the international forces are unable to defeat Islamic State in Iraq, it is not clear how the Afghan forces and NATO [will] defeat Islamic State in Afghanistan. He fears that the situation is quiet in Afghanistan at the moment due to the winter, but the new year will bring massive attacks to all parts of Afghanistan and the Hazaras Shias community.
70. I have found that the applicant would not face a real risk of being significantly harmed in generalised violence in Mazar-e-Sharif. While I accept the security situation in this city is serious, given my assessment above about the relative safety in the city and the applicant's lack of profile, I am not satisfied that this factor makes the question of relocation unreasonable.
71. I accept that relocating to Mazar-e-Sharif would be challenging, however there are a range of considerations that indicate the applicant could successfully relocate to the city and that it would be reasonable for him to do so.
72. The applicant's representative has highlighted the economic and humanitarian difficulties present in Afghanistan, many as a result of high numbers of IDPs and returnee populations settling in urban areas. While I accept that there are economic difficulties throughout Afghanistan, I have also noted above the range of factors that point to the strength of Mazar-e-Sharif, including its status as a commercial and financial centre, its diversity, and strong educational standards. Notwithstanding the external pressures, I am satisfied that he would be capable of finding work and shelter and accessing essential services in the city.
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79. Considering all the circumstances, I am satisfied it would be reasonable for the applicant to relocate to Mazar-e-Sharif where there would not be a real risk that the applicant will suffer significant harm. As I am satisfied that the applicant could reasonably relocate to Mazar-e-Sharif, it follows that under s.36(2B) there is taken not to be a real risk that the applicant will suffer significant harm in Afghanistan.
(Citations omitted, emphasis added.)