Proposed ground 1
31 In order to understand the first proposed ground, it is relevant that the offences which led to the imprisonment of the applicant and the revocation of his visa took place in a single incident in 2010, when the applicant sexually assaulted a 12-year-old friend of his daughter, when she was sleeping over at the applicant's house. The Minister found, and the applicant does not dispute, that the sexual offences were very serious. The applicant nevertheless seeks to impugn the Minister's reasoning as to the likelihood that the applicant would reoffend, and thus the level of risk to the community should he be permitted to stay in Australia.
32 The applicant points to the following matters found in the remarks of the judge who sentenced the applicant for the sexual offences. The offending was opportunistic and occurred in circumstances where the applicant was affected by alcohol; it was of short duration and essentially a single incident, unaccompanied by violence, threats or inducements; the prospects of rehabilitation were fair and the applicant did not pose 'a particularly high threat' to other children; and the offending, while 'extraordinarily serious', fell within the middle range of offending of its type.
33 The applicant had a record of other, lesser offences for which he had been convicted a considerable time before the sexual assaults occurred. The Minister found that the applicant had 'other serious offending, some of it dated' (MD para 75). However, the applicant's chief criticisms were directed at the passage from the Minister's decision that is set out above, specifically:
(1) The Minister recounts without demur the sentencing judge's assessment of the applicant's rehabilitation prospects as 'fair', and her belief that he did not pose a 'particularly high threat to other children' (MD para 77).
(2) The Minister also recounts without demur the applicant's statement that he has completed programs in prison and is confident that he will not reoffend, and that he had been a model prisoner (MD paras 78-79).
(3) The Minister recounted a submission made on the applicant's behalf that there were factors protective against reoffending including his age, family responsibilities and the support he has from family and friends (MD para 80).
(4) The Minister acknowledged that the applicant had been declared a serious sexual offender and it was likely that permanent orders would be made by the Children's Court of Victoria and that 'these factors may serve to minimise his unsupervised contact with minor children' (MD para 83).
(5) The only matters that the Minister noted that might be thought to support a finding that he is likely to reoffend are that many of the protective factors existed at the time of his offending (MD para 81) and that he has some breaches of judicial orders recorded on his National Police Certificate from 1996, and 'these breaches, albeit dated, demonstrate a lack of respect for judicial authority' (MD para 82).
(6) However, despite the preponderance of factors that minimise the applicant's risk of reoffending, and the Minister's acknowledgement of many of those factors at MD paragraph 84, the Minister concludes at paragraph 85 that there is a 'likelihood' that the applicant may reoffend. This is based, according to the applicant, solely on the findings that many of the protective factors existed at the time of the sexual offences, and on the breach of judicial orders in the somewhat distant past.
(7) In addition, the Minister's reasoning does not engage with further rehabilitative or deterrent effect of the fact that the applicant has been punished for his offending by a sentence of several years in prison.
34 All this, the applicant submits, is illogical and irrational. His submissions in that regard relied to a significant extent on giving a meaning to the expression used by the Minister that 'there is a likelihood that he may re-offend' which elevates it above a mere finding that there is a chance of reoffending that cannot be ruled out. It was the stronger nature of the finding that was said to be unsupportable on the basis of the limited material enlisted in MD paragraphs 81, 82 and 85, set out at [25] above.
35 This case, while reasonably arguable, is not compelling. It breaks the Minister's reasoning up into pieces, with a danger that any given piece is taken out of context, and it also fails to have regard to the wider context in which the relevant passage sits. That wider context is that the applicant had been convicted of an opportunistic and serious sexual offence against a 12-year-old girl. While that was not part of a pattern of offending, the fact that it had happened once, when the opportunity arose, provided rational support, all things being equal, for a finding that it may happen again, if the opportunity arose again.
36 Of course, all things were not equal, as they rarely, if ever, are. That is where the Minister's consideration of rehabilitation, protective factors such as age and familial support, and the likely Children's Court orders (apparently about unsupervised conduct with children) become relevant. It is in relation to those matters that I am concerned that the applicant's argument may impermissibly dissect the Minister's reasons, and may in particular sever MD paragraph 85 from elsewhere in the reasons, especially paragraph 84. It is trite that the reasons for administrative decisions are to be read fairly as a whole and without an eye keenly attuned to the detection of error.
37 When the Minister's reasons here are read that way, there is much to be said for this interpretation: paragraph 84 acknowledges and gives weight to the applicant's prospects of rehabilitation, to the sentencing judge's view of the risk of reoffending, and to the likely protective effects of the ongoing restrictions on his access to children; but paragraph 85 is a finding that, on an overall assessment, the probability that the applicant would reoffend was unacceptable. That overall assessment included assigning less weight to some of the protective factors, because they were present when the applicant committed the sexual offences, and less weight to the protective effect of the restrictions that will be placed on his future contact with children, because he has breached judicial orders in the past.
38 I note that this understanding of what the Minister meant by 'likelihood' is consistent with the interpretation of similar wording which Mortimer J gave in Splendido: see [66]-[69]. In this case that interpretation finds further support in the last sentence of MD paragraph 85, where the Minister refers to the significant adverse and long-term effect of the offending on the victim, suggesting that he is not just assessing the probability of reoffending, but the gravity of the consequences and thus making an overall evaluation of the risk. It also finds support in MD paragraphs 91-93. And, as counsel for the Minister pointed out, MD paragraphs 84 and 85 are explicitly linked by the opening words to paragraph 85: 'Notwithstanding these factors'. These matters are overlooked in the applicant's submission that the Minister's conclusion, that there was a likelihood that he may reoffend, was based solely on the findings that many of the protective factors existed at the time of offending and that he had breached judicial orders in the past (see [33(6)] above).
39 On its face the course of reasoning thus explained is an intelligible one, and it has resulted in a conclusion that was open to be made on the material. It may be that the Minister could have articulated his reasoning more fulsomely, but inadequacy of reasons is not asserted as a basis of jurisdictional error.
40 The applicant relied on two Full Court cases in particular: Splendido and CKL21. However as is notorious, and as pointed out in CKL21 at [75], the process of judicial review is fact dependent, especially when the ground is legal unreasonableness or irrationality. In my view, both cases are distinguishable.
41 As to Splendido, in the assessment of the primary judge, which Mortimer J endorsed on appeal, it was an 'extreme and rare case': Splendido at [96]. For it was a case where the Assistant Minister had determined that Mr Splendido was an unacceptable risk without any material before him as to the circumstances of the offending. All he had was a bare criminal record, which stated convictions, dates and the offences in question. There were no sentencing remarks. It was in that context that the primary judge and the Full Court held that there was no probative material before the Assistant Minister to support his finding as to risk.
42 Here, of course, the Minister did have the sentencing remarks before him in relation to the offending that led to the cancellation of the applicant's visa. While there was no pattern of offending, I doubt that a Court, confined to its proper function on judicial review, should say that material indicating the circumstances in which a person has committed a serious offence in the past does not provide a probative basis to conclude that the person may offend in a similar way in the future. All that is needed is 'some information or material' which gives the decision-maker some basis for making the qualitative assessment of the strength or seriousness of any risk that the applicant would engage in further offending: Splendido at [82]. If the Court were standing in the shoes of the original decision maker, it may well exercise caution in using past behaviour to predict future behaviour. But that is not the Court's proper function in this case. See the discussion in MBJY v Minister for Immigration, Citizenship, Migrant Services and Multicultural Affairs [2020] FCA 1161 at [63]-[68].
43 The reasoning in Splendido does provide a basis to criticise the Minister's use of the applicant's record of historical offending, as that too was a bare criminal record without information about the surrounding circumstances. But if that is a defect in the logic of the decision, I doubt that it is one that gives rise to jurisdictional error. It contributed to, but did not determine, the conclusion the Minister reached on the risk of the applicant committing similar sexual offences in the future.
44 When his decision is read fairly, the Minister was approaching the question on the footing that a serious offence had been committed, and there was a probability, that is a chance, that it may be committed again in the future. Whether that did provide a sufficient basis for the conclusion was an evaluative factual question which the Minister decided, rightly or wrongly, within his jurisdiction. As Mortimer J observed in Splendido at [92]:
A person with a single conviction may have a greater risk of re-offending than a person with a string of convictions over a long period of time - all will depend on an assessment of the factual circumstances of the individual and her or his offending, and an assessment of whether she or he is genuinely rehabilitated and no longer exposed to the circumstantial factors which precipitated the previous offending. This is why the sentencing process, where assessment of future risk is traditionally located, is so complex.
45 In the present context, assessing the factual circumstances here was a matter for the Minister, and there are no strong reasons for thinking that his assessment will be found to be reviewable by the Court.
46 CKL21 has more similarity to the present matter because it was a case where the appellant had been found guilty of a one-off but very serious offence (murder). But it too is distinguishable because there was an abundance of evidence, including expert evidence, to indicate that the risk of the appellant reoffending in a similarly serious way was minimal, and no probative evidence to the contrary. Here, the evidence that the applicant would not reoffend was not nearly so strong, and there was nothing to say that the risk was minimal. The sentencing judge's remarks, that the risk that the applicant posed to other children was not 'particularly high' and that his prospects of rehabilitation were 'fair', do not go so far, and the other material about rehabilitation on which the applicant relies was comprised of his own representations rather than independent expert opinion. His apparently model behaviour in prison did not necessarily provide a good guide to the way he would behave out of prison. And the fact that some of the protective factors on which the applicant relied were present at the time of his serious offending was a relevant matter for the Minister to have taken into account.
47 The applicant also relied on Logan v Minister for Immigration, Citizenship, Migrant Services and Multicultural Affairs [2020] FCA 1068; (2020) 278 FCR 419. But, once again, that case is distinguishable. There, the Minister accepted that Ms Logan had been assessed as low risk of re-offending, noted that she was to be granted parole and that this was a strong indication that the Parole Board considered her to be a low likelihood of reoffending, and acknowledged that this weighed heavily in favour of a decision to revoke. And yet he had found her to be an unacceptable risk of reoffending, with no probative basis disclosed in his reasons as to why, and no finding by reference to current circumstances as to whether she posed a risk. Those errors in the Minister's decision are not present in this case.
48 For the above reasons I consider that while the first proposed ground is reasonably arguable, it is not compelling.