Effect on Control or Potential Control
133 The first ground relied on by Alinta in impugning the Panel's conclusion concerning the effect of the relevant circumstances on control or potential control is that the Panel had regard to an assessment of the likely effect of the relevant circumstances on control or potential control. Alinta draws attention to a number of paragraphs in the Panel's reasons in which reference is made to the likely effect or effects of the Acquisitions rather than the actual effect of the Acquisitions. On this question, the Panel made submissions consistently with the principles in R v Australian Broadcasting Tribunal; Ex Parte Hardiman (1980) 144 CLR 13 at 36.
134 The Panel concluded that the Acquisitions had or were likely to have, certain consequences. The Panel considered that the requirement for it to look at the effects of the Acquisitions on potential control of the Trust required it to look to the future and assess the likely effects of the Acquisitions in the future, namely, their effect on potential control, as well as those effects on control of the Trust that were currently likely to have occurred.
135 Next, the Panel considered that it was required to look at the likely effects of the Acquisitions on decisions of persons who might have sought to acquire control of the Trust. The Panel considered that such persons would look forward and anticipate the likely effects of the Schemes and that, therefore, the Panel must look at the effects, or likely effects, of the Acquisitions on potential rival acquirers, in light of the prospect of the Schemes being approved and implemented.
136 The Panel considered that the Acquisitions had, or would likely have had, an effect on the control or potential control of the Trust. The Panel observed that APL, as the responsible entity of the Trust, could be removed by unit holders having a simple majority. The Panel considered that AGL's units in the Trust were 'closely tied' to Alinta and that, therefore, only 70 per cent was available to a rival acquirer. The Panel considered that, after the Acquisitions, Alinta 'had its foot on' 40 per cent of the Units. Acquiring 50 per cent out of the remaining 60 per cent of the Units would be a considerably harder task than acquiring 50 per cent out of the remaining 70 per cent, as had been the position prior to the First Acquisitions.
137 The Panel considered that the existence of AGL's holding of units may have deterred some potential bidders for the Trust. However, the Panel considered that any such potential bidders would have been further, and materially, deterred from seeking to acquire AGL's units, or to gain control of the Trust, as a consequence of the Acquisitions. The Panel considered, therefore, that the Acquisitions themselves materially reduced the possibility of any other person bidding for, or gaining control of, the Trust. On that basis, the Panel considered that the Acquisitions had, or were likely to have had, a deterrent effect on the prospects of a rival offer for the Trust.
138 Neither Alinta nor AGL made any clear announcement to the market that AGL was essentially free to sell its units to the highest bidder, and both Alinta and AGL were 'conspicuously… silent on that issue'. The Panel considered, therefore, that the market would be left under the impression that Alinta and AGL had agreed that Alinta would acquire AGL's units. The Panel therefore concluded that the Acquisitions 'did have an effect on control of [the Trust]'.
139 The Panel also considered that the management rights in respect of the Trust would be highly desirable to Alinta. The Panel considered that, following the Acquisitions, and assuming the Schemes were implemented, the prospect of Alinta being able to carry the vote in relation to the changing of the manager of the Trust, even in the face of significant unit holder opposition, would be markedly increased. Accordingly, the Panel considered that the Acquisitions, on that basis, would likely have an effect on the control or potential control of the Trust.
140 Subsequently, the Panel concluded that, in the context in which the Acquisitions occurred, they had an effect on the control or potential control of the Trust for the reasons just summarised. It therefore appeared to the Panel that the circumstances of the Acquisitions were unacceptable, having regard to their effect and, having regard to the matters referred to in s 657A(3).
141 Alinta contends that, in the light of those aspects of the Panel's reasoning, the Panel went beyond determining the particular effect of relevant circumstances on control or potential control of the Trust: the Panel had also determined the particular likely effect of some of those circumstances on those matters. Alinta says that the distinction between effect and likely effect is significant and that the Panel's approach involved reading into the provisions of s 657A(2)(a) words that are simply not there.
142 The use by the Panel of phrases such as 'likely to have an effect' and 'likely effects' should not be considered as if those phrases appeared in a statute. Rather, the phrases must be construed in the context of the reasoning of the Panel, in order to determine whether the Panel misdirected itself as to the prerequisites for the making of a declaration of unacceptable circumstances. The phrase 'likely to have the effect' will in some statutory contexts mean something less than more probable than not and will be satisfied by there being a significant finite of probability or a real chance (Australian Gas Light Company v Australian Competition & Consumer Commission 137 FCR 317 at [342] to [343]. However, I do not consider that, on a fair reading of the Panel's reasons, the phrases in question should be construed as meaning simply that there is a real chance or a significant finite probability.
143 The Panel's power to make a declaration of unacceptable circumstances is enlivened if it appears to the Panel that the circumstances are unacceptable, having regard to their effect on control or potential control. That requires a judgment. The Panel must direct its attention to some specific effect of the circumstances on either control or potential control. The Panel has directed its attention to specific effects, as those effects bear on control or potential control of the Trust. I do not consider that the Panel's use of the phrases in question signifies anything more than the degree of certainty with which it appeared to the Panel that the circumstances have the relevant effect. I consider that a fair reading of the reasons is that the Panel was saying no more than that it appears to the Panel to be more likely than not, that the circumstances in question have had the relevant effect on control or potential control. I do not consider that the Panel misdirected itself in the application of s 657A(2)(a) in this regard.
144 Alinta also contends that the Panel erred by having regard to the future effect of the Acquisitions, rather than the present effect of them, on control or potential control of the Trust. I do not consider that that criticism of the Panel's reasoning is made out, which appears to be an alternative way of impugning the reference to likely effect. The Panel's task is to consider the effect of the circumstances on control or potential control. Potential control must signify a degree of futurity. The Panel turned its mind to the effect that the Acquisitions had, or were likely to have had, on control or potential control.
145 Next, Alinta contends that the Panel misconstrued the word 'effect' in s 657A(2)(a) and the term 'potential control' in s 657A(2)(a)(i). Alinta says that the Panel erred by having regard to the effect of the Acquisitions on hypothetical matters. Thus, the Panel made findings to the effect that the Acquisitions deterred any rival or potential bidders who may have considered bidding for control of the Trust or seeking to acquire AGL's units. Alinta complains that the Panel did not identify any probative material upon which it could base such findings as to that effect or as to the existence of any rival or potential bidders or acquirers.
146 Certainly, there must be some probative material before the Panel upon which it can base a conclusion as to a particular effect (Glencore International v Takeovers Panel (2005) 220 ALR 495 at [99]). However, I consider that the Panel satisfactorily identified the circumstances upon which it based its conclusions. As I have said, it referred to the existence of AGL's holding of units in the Trust as a possible deterrence of some potential bidders and that such potential bidders would have been further, and materially, deterred from seeking to acquire AGL's units or to gain control of the Trust, as a consequence of Alinta's acquisitions of units during August. As an expert tribunal, the Panel is entitled to make an evaluation based upon its experience and expertise as to the effect of particular circumstances. It would not be necessary, for example, for the Panel to identify a particular person who might have been a potential bidder. I do not consider that the Panel made any reviewable error concerning the effect of the Acquisitions on control or potential control.
147 Alinta complains that, at the time of the Acquisitions, there was no certainty that:
· the Schemes would be implemented;
· AGL would still hold its units in the Trust at the time of implementation of the Schemes;
· the AGL units in the Trust would still represent the same percentage of units in the Trust at the time of implementation.
That is so. However, the Panel quite properly made an assessment of the likelihood of those matters in the future. Thus, it considered, and gave its reasons why it concluded, that it was likely that the Schemes would be implemented. It gave reasons for concluding why it considered that it was likely that AGL would continue to hold its units. I do not consider that the Panel's consideration of the effect of the Acquisitions, on the assumption that the Schemes would be implemented, involved the Panel having regard to matters beyond s 657A(2)(a)(i).
148 Alinta contends further that the Panel erred in assessing potential control by reference to something that might occur in the future and that the Panel is not entitled to consider hypothetical matters. I do not consider that that criticism has substance. The Panel must engage in speculation in so far as it is endeavouring to determine what would have happened if the relevant circumstances did not exist or occur. Having regard to the Panel's expertise, the making of a judgment as to whether potential bidders would be deterred, is not beyond the Panel's function as contemplated by s 657A(2)(a).
149 The Panel made a finding that the market perceived that the AGL units were not available for purchase. Alinta says that there was no basis for the Panel to find that, because Alinta and AGL made no announcement that AGL was free to sell its units, the market would conclude that AGL's ability to dispose of the units was restricted. However, that is a finding that was open to the Panel, based on its expertise and experience as to the way in which the market would perceive the circumstances.
150 Alinta also complains about the Panel's conclusion that, because Alinta is a significant manager of infrastructure assets, the right to be appointed responsible entity of the Trust would be highly desirable to Alinta. Alinta complains that the Panel had no probative evidence for such a conclusion. I consider that the Panel's inference is a conclusion available to it on the material that it had before it. There was no error.
151 Finally, Alinta complains that the Panel failed to take into account several considerations that Alinta asserts that the Panel was obliged to take into account. While the matters referred to may be relevant considerations to which the Panel could have regard, I do not consider that any of the matters is mandatory, such that failure to have regard to it resulted in reviewable error on the part of the Panel.
152 The first matter is that Alinta offered, on 15 September 2006, to execute a deed poll confirming that the Second Court Date was 9 October 2006, thereby confirming that the period for which disposal of AGL's units in the Trust was restricted was limited to a period of less than four months. While such a matter may have been a relevant consideration for the purposes of considering orders under s 657D, it clearly has no bearing on whether the relevant circumstances were unacceptable.
153 Next, Alinta says that the Panel failed to have regard to the fact that the purpose and effect of the Commission Declaration was to remove any basis for suggesting that Alinta had a relevant interest in AGL's units and that the Commission had not revoked or varied the Commission Declaration. While the terms of the Commission Declaration are relevant for the question of whether or not there was a contravention, there is no basis for concluding that its terms or its existence had a bearing on whether the relevant circumstances, consisting of the Acquisitions in the context in which they occurred, were unacceptable. This question is significantly tied up with the issue of whether, once it is accepted that the Panel erred in concluding that there was a contravention, that has a bearing on whether the Panel independently determined that the relevant circumstances were unacceptable having regard to their effect on control or potential control of the Trust.
154 Alinta also complains that the Panel misconstrued or misunderstood the Commission Declaration. Once again, while that may be relevant to the question of contravention of s 606, it has no bearing on the question of whether, assuming no contravention, the circumstances were unacceptable having regard to their effect on control or potential control of the Trust.
155 Finally, Alinta complains that the Panel failed to have regard to s 609(7) and items 11, 14 and 17 of s 611, which are mandatory considerations by reason of s 657A(3)(a)(ii). It is true that by s 657A(3), in exercising its powers under s 657A, the Panel must have regard to the other provisions of Chapter 6. However, the Panel clearly gave consideration to the provisions in question. It considered the terms of s 609(7), as modified by the Commission's Declaration. It also had regard to the effect of item 11 in s 611, whereby acquisitions pursuant to takeover offers are exempted. Alinta made submissions to the Panel that the Acquisitions were in accordance with the policy and intention of the legislature in introducing item 14 of s 611, which, relevantly, exempts from the prohibition in s 606 acquisitions in a company that result from another acquisition of relevant interests in voting shares in a company that is included in the official list of ASX. Item 17 exempts an acquisition that results from a compromise or arrangement approved by the Court under Part 5.1. It is clear that the Panel had regard to those matters and gave detailed reasons for rejecting Alinta's submission based on those provisions. I consider that Alinta's complaints do no more than seek merits review of the Panel's consideration of the matters in question.
156 I do not consider that any of Alinta's complaints concerning the Panel's decision to make a declaration of unacceptable circumstances have been made out. The Panel Declaration should, therefore, stand, notwithstanding the erroneous conclusion reached by the Panel concerning contravention of the Corporations Act by reason of the Acquisitions.