Having addressed the evidence in relation to that attack, what the RRT did determine in effect was not to give the same the significance for which the appellant contended : see again what I have extracted from its reasons for decision in [8] above.
15 The reasons for judgment below of Lloyd-Jones FM were very thoroughly and competently assembled. His Honour purported to apply the principles emanating from Wu Shan Liang, and after considering seriatim five propositions advanced to his Honour and in the light of a careful appraisal of the findings and reasoning of the RRT, his Honour rejected the submissions of the appellant below as to existence of any jurisdictional error on the part of the RRT.
16 I do not think, contrary to the appellant's submissions, that the RRT's approach 'placed the hurdle too high', or that the RRT failed to consider the totality of the appellant's circumstances, or that the RRT arrived at a conclusion as to past persecution, such as to indicate that it was open to be concluded that the appellant would be persecuted in the future if he was returned to his country of origin of Bangladesh. Counsel for the appellant referred me to dictum of Sackville J in Minister for Immigration and Multicultural Affairs v Rajalingam (1999) 93 FCR 220 at 239-240 (par [60]-[64]), where his Honour observed as follows, after citing Minister or Immigration and Multicultural Affairs v Wu Shiang Wang (emphasis in original):
'60. It follows from the observations of the High Court in Wu Shan Liang and Guo [Minister for Immigration and Ethnic Affairs v Guo (1997) 191 CLR 559] that there are circumstances in which the RRT must take into account the possibility that alleged past events occurred even though it finds that those events probably did not occur. This result, perhaps surprising at first glance, comes about because the ultimate question before the RRT is whether it is satisfied that the applicant has a well-founded fear of future persecution, in the sense of having a "real substantial basis" for the fear. The RRT must not foreclose reasonable speculation about the chances of the hypothetical future event occurring.
61. The RRT performs its fact-finding task as an administrative decision-maker. Although the civil standard of proof is not irrelevant to the process, the RRT cannot simply apply that standard to all fact-finding. Moreover, the RRT must frequently makes its assessment on the basis of fragmented, incomplete and confused information. It has to assess the plausibility of accounts given by people who may be understandably bewildered, frightened and, perhaps, desperate and who often do not understand either the process or the language spoken by the decision-maker/investigator. As Gummow and Hayne JJ remarked in Ex parte Abebe [Abebe v Commonwealth (1999) 73 ALJR 504; 162 ALR 1] at [191]:
"[i]t is necessary always to bear in mind that an applicant for refugee status is, on one view of events, engaged in an often desperate battle for freedom, if not life itself."
Even applicants with a genuine fear of prosecution may not present as models of consistency or transparent veracity.'
62. In this context, it is not always possible for the decision-maker to be satisfied as to whether alleged past events have occurred with certainty or even confidence. When the RRT is uncertain as to whether an alleged event occurred, or finds that, although the probabilities are against it, the event might have occurred, it may be necessary to take into account the possibility that the event took place in considering the ultimate question. Depending on the significance of the alleged event to the ultimate question, a failure to consider the possibility that it occurred might constitute a failure to undertake the required reasonable speculation in deciding whether the is a "real substantial basis" for the applicant's claimed fear of persecution. Similarly, if the non-occurrence of an event is important to an applicant's claimed fear of persecution. Similarly, if the non-occurrence of an event is important to an applicant's case (for example, the withdrawal of a threat to the applicant) the possibility that the event did not occur may need to be considered by the decision-maker even though the latter considers the disputed event probably did occur.
63. Although the "What if I am wrong?" terminology has gained currency, I think, with respect, that it is more accurate to see the requirement discussed in Wu Shan Liang and Guo as simply an aspect of the obligation to apply correctly the principles for determining whether an applicant as a "well-founded fear of being persecuted" for a Convention reason. The reasonable speculation in which the decision-maker must engage may require him or her to take account of the chance that past events might have occurred, even though the decision-maker thinks that they probably did not. In the language of s 476(1)(e) of the Migration Act, a failure to do so may constitute "an error involving an incorrect interpretation of the applicable law or an incorrect application of the law to the facts as found".
64. In my view, there is no reason in principle, and nothing in the reasoning of the High Court, supporting a general rule that the RRT must express findings as to whether alleged past events actually occurred in a manner that makes explicit its degree of conviction or confidence that the findings are correct. In Guo itself, the findings were not expressed this way, yet the joint judgment considered it was enough that the RRT appeared to have no doubt that the probability of error was insignificant. Moreover, had the Court intended to impose such an extraordinary burden on the RRT, it might have been expected to say so.'