There is no unfair prejudice to members
38 VAH is a public company, the shares of which are listed on the ASX. It has five major shareholders - Etihad Airways (which has approximately 20.03% of the total share capital), Singapore Airlines Ltd (20.01%), Nanshan Group (20.01%), HNA Group (19.86%) and Virgin Group Ltd (a company incorporated in the United Kingdom and not otherwise related to VAH other than through its shareholding) (10.02%) ('Major Shareholders'). Between them, the Major Shareholders own approximately 90% of the equity of VAH. In addition to the Major Shareholders, VAH has 19,181 other shareholders.
39 For the reasons that follow, I do not consider there will be unfair prejudice to the Major Shareholders or the residual shareholders upon the transfer of their shares to Bain Capital or its nominee.
40 The Virgin Companies are insolvent (and were likely to be insolvent from 22 March 2020, and possibly as early as 18 March 2020). The reasons for the insolvency of the Virgin Companies include that: they suffered substantial reductions to capacity and projected revenue due to travel restrictions announced by the Commonwealth and various State Governments in response to the COVID-19 pandemic; they had suffered continual losses in the 2019 financial year and the portion of the 2020 financial year prior to the appointment of the Administrators; and they were unable to access further debt or equity funding (including from the Major Shareholders).
41 Critically, the Deed Administrators have expressed the opinion that there is a substantial deficiency in assets available to meet the debts and claims owing to the creditors of the Virgin Companies. As noted in the 75-225 Report:
(1) the total value of available assets in the winding up, after taking into account liquidation expenses, to meet the claims of unsecured creditors is estimated to be in the range of:
(a) $207.2 million to $310.1 million in the event that the Bain Transaction completes under the Bain ASA; and
(b) $52.4 million in the event that the Bain Transaction does not proceed at all and the assets of the Virgin Companies are realised on a piece-meal basis; and
(2) the total estimated unsecured creditor pool in the winding up is estimated to be $6.007 billion.
42 These opinions are supported by the analysis and conclusions detailed in the Independent Expert's Report.
43 In the Independent Expert's Report, FTI has undertaken a valuation of the equity in VAH on a liquidation basis and on a going concern basis. As noted above, given that the alternative to completion of the Bain DOCAs is a winding up of the Virgin Companies (likely with an asset sale to Bain Capital), the going concern valuation is not the relevant counter-factual on which the valuation ought to proceed.
44 With respect to the liquidation valuation, the Independent Expert's Report considers two scenarios. First, where the business and assets of the Virgin Companies are sold as a whole (for example, to Bain Capital or another purchaser); and secondly, where the assets of the Virgin Companies are sold separately in a piece-meal fashion.
45 The Independent Expert's Report concludes that:
(1) if sold as a whole, the enterprise value of the Virgin Companies is between $1.6 billion and $2.1 billion, plus a further $289 million to $343 million for VAH's stake in the Velocity Frequent Flyer ('Velocity') business and $35 million for surplus cash; and
(2) if sold on a piece-meal basis, the business and assets of the Virgin Companies are valued at between $2.4 billion and $2.8 billion.
46 It is significant that the valuation of the assets of the Virgin Companies is supported by a separate independent valuation of the aircraft fleet owned by the Virgin Companies, which has been carried out by David Crick of DavAir Group.
47 Because the debts of the Virgin Companies exceed $5 billion, the equity in the VAH is between:
(1) negative $2.5 billion and negative $3.2 billion, on the assumption that the assets and business are sold as a whole and there are certain assumed liabilities by the purchaser; and
(2) negative $5.6 billion and negative $6.1 billion, on the assumption that the assets are sold in a piece-meal fashion and all liabilities to creditors will be provable in the winding up.
48 In other words, the Independent Expert's Report concludes that the equity in VAH is of no value in practical terms (because VAH is a limited liability company).
49 This conclusion is supported by the cross-check taken of bids received by the Administrators during the campaign for the sale of the business and assets of the Virgin Companies. None of these was sufficient to discharge the claims of creditors, thereby confirming that the value of the equity in VAH is nil.
50 There are two further matters that suggest that a conservative approach must be taken to any valuation of the business and assets of the Virgin Companies (and therefore to an assessment of the value of the equity in VAH).
51 First, a valuation of any airline business at present is necessarily affected by the current COVID-19 pandemic. As noted in the Independent Expert's Report, the impact of the pandemic on the airline industry has been severe, with global airline revenue expected to contract by more than 50% in 2020 and passenger traffic (by kilometre travelled) not expected to return to 2019 levels until 2025. The pandemic also introduces obvious uncertainty as to the prospect of increased airline travel by business and leisure passengers, both domestically and internationally.
52 Secondly, even before the pandemic, the Virgin Companies (and other entities in the Virgin group that are not presently in external administration, such as Velocity) suffered collective losses of over $1.2 billion in the period between 1 July 2016 and 30 June 2019.
53 The ineluctable fact is that the shares in VAH have no economic value. Thus, the members of VAH would be in the same financial position regardless of the mechanism by which the Bain Transaction is completed (or, indeed, even if the Bain Transaction does not complete at all and the assets of the Virgin Companies are sold to other parties in a winding up). As explained by the Deed Administrators, the members of VAH can never stand to receive any return from their shareholding. Thus, there is no prospect of unfair prejudice being suffered by shareholders from a transfer of their shares to Bain Capital or its nominee.
54 Importantly, though, completion of the Bain Transaction by the effectuation of the Bain DOCAs is expected to provide a better return to creditors in comparison with the Bain ASA. That is principally because the Bain DOCAs enable completion of the sale to occur on a more expedited and streamlined basis (through a retention of the existing corporate structure premised upon the transfer of the shares in VAH to Bain Capital or its nominee), thereby avoiding transaction costs associated with an asset sale.
55 In other words, although the method of completion of the Bain Transaction makes no financial difference to VAH's shareholders (because their shares are worthless), the proposed Share Transfer and the subsequent effectuation of the Bain DOCAs will provide a materially better outcome for creditors. That strongly favours the making of orders to permit the Share Transfer to proceed.