29 The primary sale upon which Mr Hamilton relies is an area of 28.82 ha at North Ballina adjoining the existing Ballina Heights Estate. The land is partly zoned 1(d) and the remainder is in the 7(f) zone. The 1(d) zone is a rural zone marked for urban expansion. The land in the 7(f) zone has no development potential and is unlikely to be accepted as an offset to developer contributions under s 94. Ignoring the land in the 7(f) zone Mr Hamilton foreshadows a yield of 140 lots reflecting a value of $42,857 per en globo lot. Although the land may ultimately be developed for residential purposes the price requires a significant adjustment to reflect the lack of imminent development potential compared to the subject land. Mr Allsopp regarded this sale as showing $42,857 per lot for deferred en globo land in June 2003 with adjustment to be made for a staged payment for the purchase price and rent free occupation period for the vendor as well as the vendor retaining the right to compensation for resumption of part of the land by the RTA. Nevertheless Mr Allsopp asserts that the sale confirms the $65,000 per en globo lot adopted by him in respect of the subject land.
30 The second primary sale relied upon by Mr Hamilton was in respect of 24.47 ha at Murwillumbah which shows a value placed upon an en globo lot of $42,057 or $163,465 per ha. I have not been persuaded that the sale of the land at Murwillumbah can be made relevant to a determination of the price that a prudent purchaser would pay for land at Alstonville. Similarly, a sale of land at Goonellabah reflecting $26,786 per en globo lot at $144,046 per ha, which I inspected, has in my opinion very little relevance to the establishment of a market value for land with residential potential at Alstonville.
31 Although his analysis of the sale of River Oaks is persuasive, I find that the evidence of Mr Hamilton in relation to the application of the abovementioned three sales to the subject land is not compelling.
32 It is obviously unsatisfactory and indeed distinctly unhelpful for the Court to be placed in a situation where one valuer is contending that $14,404,700 is the value of the subject before acquisition and the other valuer arrives at a figure of $6,549,700. One of them, or both, is clearly wrong.
33 I have already referred to the opinion of the applicant's valuer in respect of the price the Smith land would be likely to yield in the current market, namely $231,00 per lot. On the other hand Mr Hamilton assesses the likely yield at $215,000 per developed lot. Mr Hamilton's lower assessment is primarily derived from his observation that the proposed model subdivision for the Smith land caters for much smaller lots than those generally available in the market at Alstonville. Mr Jelley reviewed the sales evidence provided by both Mr Allsopp and Mr Hamilton and concluded that the median price for lots being sold at the relevant time was $225,250 per lot compared with an average price of $231,000 per lot. After noting that from February 2004 the market was rising, Mr Jelley expressed an opinion that at the time of valuation the purchaser would adopt a more optimistic view to likely price outcomes during subsequent development. However given the disagreement between Mr Hamilton and Mr Allsopp he undertook two identical cash flows with one based on lot sales at $215,000 and the other at $231,000 to see what effect that had on the en globo value of the land when the assessment is done on the same cash flow model.
34 The immediate past history of land sales in Alstonville is that releases have been controlled almost entirely by one landholder so that the development period has been more extended than that foreshadowed for the Smith land, particularly by the applicant. Given the anticipated rate of release of the subject land and the comparatively smaller sizes envisaged I am inclined to agree with the more conservative approach adopted by Mr Hamilton in this respect bearing in mind Mr Jelley's observation that the median price for lots suggests there were more sales occurring in the lower price range. It has not been demonstrated that the rising market after February 2004 was necessarily a factor the prudent hypothetical purchaser would have taken into account on 6 February 2004. Although Alstonville is obviously an attractive town with good facilities I accept Mr Hamilton's assessment that land at Ballina and Ballina Heights should achieve a better rate of sale than Alstonville. According to Mr Hamilton the much larger retail centre and range of facilities in Ballina would make it a more vigorous market for a developer. The sales of land out of River Oaks Estate and other sales in Ballina should therefore be adjusted accordingly. That in my opinion requires a greater adjustment than that allowed by Mr Allsopp to something more in the range of $215,00 per lot deduced by Mr Hamilton. In making that assessment I have taken into account the prospect that some lots in the hypothetical development of the Smith land will have an agricultural aspect that will have the effect of increasing their attraction in the market.
35 The bottom end of the range of sales of developed land goes down to $175,000 at Alstonville with a number of sales at around $210,000. Prime lots have achieved as much as $290,000. I find it more likely than not therefore that a developer would regard the subject land at the date of resumption as likely to achieve an average sale price in the order of $215,000 as estimated by Mr Hamilton, or at the outside $220,000.
36 It is my opinion that overall the en globo value of the subject land at Alstonville is inferior to the land comprised in the comparable sales at Ballina. Apart from the reduced development cost of the Smith land, the River Oaks development is superior. The real value of the subject land is somewhere between the $26,000 per lot en globo across the board, adopted by Mr Hamilton, on the basis of an "actual" residential zoning and the $65,000 per en globo lot derived by Mr Allsopp.
37 Apart from the difference in the value derived from the River Oaks sale in the order of $25,000 per en globo lot in the first instance the derivation of only $120,000 per ha based on a sale price reflecting a premium over agricultural land for the deferred part of the Smith land by Mr Hamilton takes the valuers even further apart.
38 Although the actual figures assessed by Mr Hamilton might be regarded as extremely conservative his methodology is logical notwithstanding, as he put it, "there's probably no science to it". His "top down" approach is more likely, in my opinion, to reflect an approach that the hypothetical purchaser would take at the date of resumption. It would be more than likely that a well-informed vendor would be acutely aware of the extended selling period for a development comprising over 200 lots at Alstonville and reach the same conclusion. Mr Allsopp's direct application of the River Oaks sale on the basis that the subject land would be assumed to sell in the same time frame is rejected. In my view Mr Hamilton has underestimated the market in the order of 50% whereas Mr Allsopp has overestimated the value of the Smith land with development potential in the order of 25%. It is appropriate therefore to pursue a check valuation method.
Check Valuations
(a) Hypothetical Development
39 Using this methodology as a check method Mr Allsopp adopted $13,273,839 or $65,712 per lot en globo for the developable land. He again allowed $231,000 for the sale of each of the 202 lots including GST. He made a comparison between River Oaks and the subject land on the basis that River Oaks had a life of seven years with the life of the project on the subject land estimated at 10 years. The evidence does not support the conclusion that a prospective hypothetical purchaser would have necessarily adopted the estimates of seven years and 10 years. This aspect of the argument is explored more fully later in these reasons. The consequence is to bring the rate of development on the subject land more into line with the rate of development and sale of land in Ballina. No allowance appears in respect of obtaining development consent and interest holding costs during that period. A period of two years to obtain approvals and a ten-year selling period would extend the life of the project to 12 years. I am not in a position to make relevant adjustments to Mr Allsopp's calculations. Accordingly I have not used his hypothetical development methodology as a check valuation except as an indication of what Mr Allsopp would have told a purchaser. A project with a longer life generally demands a greater return on investment. Moreover the competing arguments put by the parties in relation to the use of the hypothetical development check method are irreconcilable.