Actuarial reports and HIBV tier 2 capital injection
17 The actuary's opinion as set out in the Finity Report was that the interests of policyholders of PDIC's Australian branch and Hollard would not be adversely affected in a material way as a consequence of the implementation of the scheme. In reaching this conclusion, the actuary considered the nature of the business to be transferred, policy terms and premium rates, claims handling, risk profile and financial security.
18 At section 2.1 of the Finity Report, the actuary said (as written):
2.1 Nature of the Business to be Transferred
The PDIC Aus portfolio represents around 30 million of domestic motor business. The portfolio is small in the context of the Hollard business, representing around 5% of Hollard premium levels.
Domestic motor business tends to be 'short tailed', which means that claims are paid out relatively quickly after they occur. This is relevant in the context of the scheme as it means that there are low levels of uncertainty attaching to the claims liabilities.
From 31 March 2017 the PDIC Aus portfolio has been 100% reinsured by Hollard for all premiums earned from that date. The extra risk being transferred to Hollard as a result of the scheme relates to claims that occurred prior to 31 March 2017 but which still remain to be paid on the scheme date. Given that more than eight months will have elapsed by the time of the scheme, unpaid claims and hence the extra risk being transferred to Hollard as a result of the scheme is expected to be small.
19 At section 2.2 of the Finity Report, the actuary said (as written):
2.2 Policy Terms and Premium Rates
There will be no changes to the terms and conditions of current and prior policies issued by PDIC Aus as a result of the scheme.
In the event that Hollard changes the terms and conditions for new contracts in future, this will not impact current PDIC Aus policyholders for the remaining term of their contracts. Similarly, while premium rates for some policyholders will change for future periods of insurance, such changes are part of normal insurer operations.
In this context, PDIC Aus's policyholders will be in the same position as before the scheme.
20 At section 2.3 of the Finity Report, the actuary noted that claims would be managed by the same team before and after implementation of the scheme so that management philosophy and guidelines will initially broadly be unchanged and that while changes may subsequently occur, that would be possible whether or not the scheme was implemented. On that basis, there was no reason to believe that policyholder and claimant expectations in relation to claims handling would be materially affected by the scheme.
21 In relation to the financial security of PDIC's Australian branch policyholders, the actuary said at section 2.5.1 of the Finity Report (as written):
2.5.1 PDIC Aus Policyholders
PDIC Aus has been making substantial underwriting losses. As such the protection provided to the policyholders has been dependent on the branch holding additional capital in Australia to reflect the level of projected losses as well as regular injections of capital from the parent. The parent is a large well rated (S&P AA) US company with a book value of US$8 billion. The potential level of protection provided to policyholders is thus substantial currently.
On transfer to Hollard the policyholders will be subject to a wider range of risks than they were previously, reflecting the more complex nature of the Hollard business. However, in my opinion the financial security for the PDIC Aus policyholders will not be adversely affected to a material extent post-scheme for the following reasons:
• Firstly, as a result of the short tailed nature of the business, the period for which the transferring policyholders are exposed to any extra risk is short, noting they have the option at renewal to transfer to other insurers.
• Post-scheme, Hollard's capital adequacy multiple is estimated to be 1.63 times APRA's minimum requirements. This represents a substantial level of capital in its own right. The capital level will be within Hollard's normal operating range. The Hollard operating range for capital is higher than the equivalent figures for PDIC Aus.
• Certain of Hollard's assets which are inadmissible for APRA purposes can be seen as having some value - i.e.in effect a capital adequacy is better than the capital adequacy multiple of 1.63 shows.
• In Australia the Hollard portfolio is larger, more profitable and more diversified than the PDIC Aus business. This reduces the likelihood of capital being needed to support payments to policyholders.
• Like PDIC Aus currently, Hollard is supported by a parent company. Furthermore Hollard's dependence on the parent is lower than PDIC Aus's, noting the better profitability of Hollard. While the Hollard shareholders may ultimately not have the same financial resources as PDIC US, I note that they have demonstrated a preparedness to make capital injections into the business we needed in the past.
• Hollard has significant reinsurance protection which limits the volatility of performance and is used by the company to provide capital relief. In addition this reinsurance will apply to the PDIC Aus portfolio, limiting the volatility being added as a result of liabilities transferred under the scheme.
22 In relation to the financial security of Hollard policyholders, the actuary said at section 2.5.2 of the Finity Report (as written):
2.5.2 Hollard Policyholders
The capital adequacy provided to the Hollard policyholders is reduced post-scheme. This reflects that the liabilities of PDIC Aus but no capital are being transferred. Furthermore the PDIC Aus profitability has historically been poor, which has the potential to impact on future capital adequacy levels.
However in my opinion the financial security for the Hollard policyholders will not be materially lower post-scheme for the following reasons:
• The liabilities being transferred are small in the context of Hollard's size.
• The performance of the PDIC Aus portfolio has already improved relative to the 2014-2016 period, reflecting both claims management and pricing initiatives that have recently been undertaken and further improvement is likely.
• The terms of the agency agreement's, which caps commission levels if the experience is adverse, and Hollard involvement in the business mean that the risk of the PDIC Aus portfolio making underwriting losses for Hollard is reduced.
• The PDIC Aus portfolio is small relative to the Hollard business. Furthermore as Hollard's reinsurance is applied to the PDIC Aus portfolio, the volatility is reduced.
• The support of Hollard's parent continues to be available, if needed.
23 The November submissions at [18]-[28] are a useful summary of the changes in Hollard's capital adequacy multiple as described by the actuary in the Finity Report, the Supplementary Report and the Second Supplementary Report (but see [24] below). Before setting them out, it is useful to know that, with effect from 31 August 2017, Hollard acquired Calibre Commercial Insurance Pty Ltd insurance agency from Munich Holdings Australasia Pty Ltd. The cost of acquisition was factored into the 30 September 2017 APRA capital position referred to below. From 1 April 2018 Hollard will underwrite Calibre's portfolio. The November submissions relating to the actuary's reports were (as written, emphasis added):
18. The Finity Report outlines the solvency position of the Australian branch of the applicant and Hollard before and after the scheme based on the 31 December 2016 APRA returns (Finity Report, Section 5). The Second Supplementary Report updates the actuary's analysis based on the updated position of each entity at 30 September 2017 as set out in the APRA returns. The relevant portions of the actuary's analysis are summarised below.
The applicant's Australian branch
19. As at 31 December 2016, the applicant had net assets in Australia of $22.2m and a capital base of $20.1m. Its prescribed capital amount was $12.9m, giving it a capital adequacy multiple of 1.55 (Finity Report, p 20).
20. As at 30 September 2017, the applicant had a capital base of $20.1m. Its prescribed capital amount was the APRA minimum of $5m, giving it a capital adequacy multiple of 4.02. The decreased prescribed capital amount is attributable to the fact that the portfolio has been 100% reinsured by Hollard for all premiums earned since 31 March 2017 (Second Supplementary Report, p 8).
Hollard
21. As at 31 December 2016, Hollard had net assets of $190m and a capital base of $106.8m. Its prescribed capital amount was $65.9m, giving it a capital adequacy multiple of 1.62 (Finity Report, p 20).
22. As at 30 September 2017, Hollard had a capital base of $108.6m, a prescribed capital amount of $73.9m, and a capital adequacy multiple of 1.47 (Second Supplementary Report p 6).
Actuarial opinion on the impact of the transfer
23. Assuming the proposed transfer had occurred on 31 December 2016, the post-transfer capital adequacy multiple for Hollard was calculated to be 1.63 (Finity Report, p 20). Assuming the proposed transfer had occurred on 30 September 2017, the post-transfer capital adequacy multiple for Hollard is calculated to be 1.46 (Second Supplementary Report, p 7).
24. The capital adequacy multiple of 1.46 is within Hollard's target range for operating capital, albeit it is at the lower end of that range, whereas 1.63 was at the upper end of the range (Second Supplementary Report, p 7).
25. The actuary draws attention to the impact of Hollard's recent acquisition of the Calibre portfolio, which it will underwrite from 1 April 2018. Without any capital injection, the acquisition of that portfolio would bring Hollard's capital adequacy multiple down to 1.34 by December 2018. However, Hollard plans to inject $40m of capital to fund the increased capital requirements resulting from the acquisition. This would increase the capital adequacy multiple to 1.74 by December 2018 (Second Supplementary Report p 8). In the event that the capital injection were delayed beyond 31 December 2017 or were not to occur, Hollard has options to reduce capital requirements (such as reinsurance and reducing growth strategies), which could have the same impact on Hollard's capital ratio as the capital injection (Second Supplementary Report p 6).
26. In the Finity Report, the actuary formed the view that the financial security for policyholders of the applicant's Australian branch will not be adversely affected to a material extent following the scheme (Finity Report p 7). The actuary adheres to this view in the Second Supplementary Report, notwithstanding the fall in capital adequacy multiple from 1.63 to 1.46 (but noting this is expected to increase as the Calibre business is written and an injection of capital is made). His reasons for forming this view are:
a. as a result of the short tailed nature of the applicant's Australian business, the period for which transfer in policyholders are exposed to an extra risk is short (noting that they have the option at renewal to transfer to other insurers);
b. the capital adequacy multiple of 1.46 reflects a buffer of $34 million over the prescribed capital amount, which is significant;
c. Certain of Hollard's assets which are inadmissible for APRA purposes can be seen as having some value - in effect, the capital adequacy is better than 1.46;
d. Hollard is supported by a parent company and has access to further capital. The group has demonstrated a preparedness to make capital injections where needed in the past;
e. the possibility of Hollard not being able to meet its obligations to policyholders of the applicant's Australian branch is remote, given the buffer and noting that the prescribed capital amount represents a substantial amount of capital in its own right.
(Second Supplementary Report p 10).
27. The actuary also considers that financial security for Hollard policyholders will not be materially lower as a result of the scheme. This is notwithstanding that the capital adequacy provided to Hollard policyholders is reduced post-scheme (because the liabilities of the applicant's Australian branch but no capital being transferred). The actuary's reasons for this view are as follows:
a. the liabilities being transferred are small in the context of Hollard's size (around $30m, representing about 5% of Hollard premium levels);
b. the performance of the applicant's Australian branch has already improved relative to the 2014-2016 period, reflecting both claims management and pricing initiatives and further improvement is likely;
c. the terms of an agency agreement, which caps commission levels if the experience is adverse, and Hollard's involvement in the business, means that the risk of the portfolio making underwriting losses is reduced;
d. the portfolio is small relative to the Hollard business and, as Hollard's reinsurance is applied, the volatility is reduced;
e. the support of Hollard's parent continues to be available if needed.
(Finity Report pp 6 and 7-8).
28. The actuary also points out that the applicant's Australian business has been loss-making (with an average annual loss of $9m over three years). He does not consider this is likely to materially impact on the level of Hollard's profits for the following reasons:
a. the losses are partly driven by the high expense ratio, averaging over 50% of the premium. Under the terms of the new Hollard agency agreement, Hollard's expenses for the portfolio appear likely to be less than 25%;
b. the loss ratio has been well above market levels. With changes that are being made to claims management and pricing (referred to below), performance can be expected to improve.
(Finity Report p 22).
24 As noted above in paragraph [6(9)], the actuary's view as expressed in the Second Supplementary Report was qualified: his opinion could change if the capital injection was not made and his opinion was based on the assumption that it would be made by December 2017. This qualification was not addressed expressly in the November submissions (compare the bolded words in paragraph [26] and the quoted words in paragraph [6(9)] above) nor was it expressly addressed in PDIC's oral submissions. It should have been, having regard to the nature of the application and the fact that the actuary considered the matters addressed in paragraph [26] of the November submissions but nonetheless chose to say that his opinion could change if the capital injection was not made.
25 Counsel for Hollard raised with the Court the fact that on 1 November 2017, APRA had advised Hollard that it would require eight weeks to approve a "tier 2" instrument pursuant to which the capital injection would be made. Although the need for the capital injection and the intention that it be effected by December 2017 had been known since at least 30 August 2017, correspondence with APRA reveals that at best, the application for APRA's approval would be made on the same day as the hearing and in any event by 17 November 2017. The expectation is that the capital injection will be able to be made by 31 January 2018.
26 Ms Neumueller advised the Court that APRA was not concerned at the one month delay in the capital injection being made. In light of APRA's attitude and the indication that the proposed "tier 2" instrument would be provided to APRA proximately to the hearing, the reaffirmation of Hollard's intentions in the 7 November 2017 investment intention letter and the advice that HIBV has liquid assets far in excess of the $40 million required to make the capital injection, the Court was satisfied that this issue should not prevent the orders sought by PDIC being made.