The Decision of the primary Judge
12 The appellant's amended application for judicial review before the primary judge contended that there was a significant reduction in the risk of re-offending because of the appellant's motivation to provide and re-establish a relationship with his children, and that this was not considered by the Tribunal.
13 As will become relevant, this was not an entirely accurate representation of the state of the evidence before the Tribunal. One of the appellant's experts, Dr Zimmerman, said as follows:
[137] From the factors that are relevant [to risk], those that are most pertinent to [the applicant]'s case are his history of problems in relationships, his past unemployment, his inability to locate a specific service to assist with relevant counselling on release to the community and the possibility of struggling to manage stress associated with re-establishing contact with his children. The central risk factor is the problem he had when his wife formed a relationship with a boarder. The other factors flow directly from this apart from his difficulties finding work in Australia to date. Employment is important in relation to the important protective role it would play, as discussed further below.
(Original emphasis.)
14 As the Minister submits on the appeal, and as the primary judge accepted (at [36]), Dr Zimmerman's evidence in fact suggests that the appellant's motivation to re-establish contact with his children (and the stress which that may engender) may provide a trigger for re-offending rather than constitute a protective factor against further re-offending.
15 Dr Zimmerman then opined, consistently with the appellant's submission in the Tribunal, that the appellant posed a "low risk of future violent offending". She identified specific factors that would further reduce that low risk. Consistently with paragraph [137] of her report (as set out above) the appellant's motivation to be with his children was not one of them (see [139]-[143] of Dr Zimmerman's report). It is apparent that the appellant's motivation to be with his children was only identified by Dr Zimmerman as being relevant to his likely compliance with any supervision or service provision (see [132] of Dr Zimmerman's report).
16 The Tribunal correctly identified the factors which the expert considered would reduce the risk of future offending and held that "there is a real albeit low risk of future family violence" (at [40] of the Tribunal's reasons for decision).
17 The primary judge noted at [35]-[36] the appellant's own evidence in relation to the likelihood of his reoffending and the expert's observations in relation to the appellant re-establishing contact with his children:
35 The evidence before the Tribunal included a statement of the applicant. In that statement, the applicant emphasised his hope of reconnecting with his children, and his awareness that he needed to prove he had changed, and needed to approach his former wife in a respectful and legal way. The applicant also said he wanted to obey the law and do things the right way and to seek legal advice about how he could contact his children again.
36 In my view, the applicant's statement before the Tribunal did raise his hopes in relation to his children as a factor that would mitigate, to some degree, his risk of re-offending. However, Dr Zimmerman's report identified the stress associated with re-establishing contact with his children as a risk factor. As counsel for the Minister submitted, the children were a "two-edged sword".
18 At [37]-[38] the primary judge then observed that while the Tribunal did not refer to the appellant's desire to reconnect with his children in relation to the risk of him re-offending, it was not incumbent on the Tribunal specifically to refer to and address that evidence:
37 This aspect of the applicant's evidence was not directly addressed by the Tribunal in its reasons. As the applicant pointed out in his submissions, the only point at which the Tribunal referred to the applicant's children was in assessing their best interests. While the Tribunal referred to the applicant's desire to re-connect with and provide support to his children, it did not at any point consider the extent to which the applicant's intentions and hopes in respect of his children - which the Tribunal accepted were genuine - affected the assessment of the risk of the applicant re-offending or engaging in other serious conduct.
38 Nevertheless, in my view, it was not incumbent on the Tribunal to specifically refer to and address the evidence and contentions each way, so far as they concerned the impact of the applicant's hopes in relation to his children. That is so because the Tribunal accepted the applicant's contention that he posed only a low risk of re-offending. There was nothing in the applicant's material before the Tribunal that suggested the applicant's hopes and intentions in relation to his children reduced the risk level below the "low risk" assessment for which the applicant himself contended. It would be otherwise if the Tribunal had rejected his submission that he posed a low risk of re-offending, but it did not.
(Emphasis added.)
19 Then, at [39], the primary judge turned to the issue of materiality even if there had been an error on the part of the Tribunal in the following terms:
39 Further, and in any event, even if the Tribunal had erred by failing to address the impact of the applicant's hopes and intentions in relation to his children on the risk of re-offending, any such error was not, in my view, material. While the threshold of materiality has been described as "undemanding" (Nathanson v Minister for Home Affairs (2022) 96 ALJR 737; [2022] HCA 26 at [33] (Kiefel CJ, Keane and Gleeson JJ)), it is not meaningless. The Full Court (Markovic, Thomas and Button JJ) recently set out the authorities regarding materiality in LPDT v Minister for Immigration, Citizenship, Migrant Services and Multicultural Affairs [2023] FCAFC 64 (LPDT) at [73]ff. An error will only be material where there is a realistic possibility that, had the decision-maker not erred, the decision could have been different: Minister for Immigration and Border Protection v SZMTA (2019) 264 CLR 421 at [45] (Bell, Gageler and Keane JJ), referred to in LPDT at [73].
(Emphasis added.)
20 The primary judge then observed at [41], consistently with what her Honour had said at [39], that even assuming in the applicant's favour that there had been an error in the Tribunal's approach, it was immaterial:
41 Assuming in the applicant's favour, for the moment, that the Tribunal did err in failing to address a sufficiently important representation that was made to it, the applicant's arguments might have had some merit if the Tribunal had concluded that the applicant posed a high, or even moderate, risk to the Australian community. However, the difficulty for the applicant, and one that is fatal to his application, is that the Tribunal proceeded on the basis that the risk of the applicant re-offending was "a real albeit low risk" (TR [40], see also TR [60]) and that "[t]he applicant committed offences that are so serious that even a low risk of re-offending is not acceptable" (TR [52], see also TR [65] and TR [80]-[81]).
21 The primary judge explained at [42]-[43] that:
42 As is apparent from a review of the Tribunal's reasons, the Tribunal was of the view that even a low risk of re-offending was not tolerable. The applicant has not contended that the matter he contends the Tribunal failed to address may have resulted in an assessment that he posed no, or an immaterial, risk of re-offending. He only contended that the Tribunal failed to consider his representation that the risk he posed was "lowered" by (or "lower because of") his desire to re-establish a relationship with, and support, his children. However, as the Tribunal already assessed the risk of further offending as "low", in my view the applicant has not established that, had the representation in question been addressed by the Tribunal, there is a realistic chance that he could have enjoyed a favourable outcome. As Mortimer J (as her Honour then was) and Bromwich J made clear in Chamoun v Minister for Immigration, Citizenship, Migrant Services and Multicultural Affairs [2020] FCAFC 66; (2020) 276 FCR 75 at [66], realistic possibilities are to be distinguished from possibilities that are fanciful or improbable.
43 The failure of the applicant's case on materiality is put beyond any doubt by the Tribunal's expressly stated conclusion that, even if the applicant did not pose any measurable risk of causing physical harm to the Australian community, "the inherent nature of the family violence is so serious that it would outweigh the countervailing considerations": TR [80].