(4) Competition in the industry
60The material objected to is contained in section 9 of the report, the section which deals with other external influences on NTG. Section 9.5, headed "Change in the competitive environment" contains the following:
9.5.1 NTG's formation and listing on the ASX occurred in an environment where NTG had a number of significant market advantages. These advantages, which were articulated clearly by analysts, included:
(i) A focus on an under-served and relatively unsophisticated market segment - the SME sector;
(ii) An ability to package both equipment and airtime as one product; and
(iii) An ability to access a variety of airtime carriers and, thereby, derive cost savings in purchasing airtime which were not available to competitors (like Commander) who were tied to one airtime carrier.
9.5.2 However, the competitive environment in which NTG operated from October 2000 to December 2002 was not static. In this section of my report I record some of the reported changes in that environment and the impacts they had on NTG's otherwise unique market position.
Changes in the market as a whole
9.5.3 The Managing Director's Report included in the papers for the Board meeting on 4 April 2001, noted that:
It seems that the market has tightened up and the expected growth that we are expecting is much harder than we actually thought. I think Mr G Tawaf's intention of growing Brisbane, Adelaide, Perth, is much quicker than planned, which should compensate for our expected growth in other states.
9.5.4 I have assumed that this means that the actual growth was lower than expected in NTG's (then) current markets and so to compensate, NTG rolled out its business to the other capital cities sooner than was originally planned.
9.5.5 The minutes of the Board meeting held on 18 September 2002 noted that Mr Tawaf advised that the market was sluggish in both Sydney and Melbourne.
9.5.6 The Minutes of Meeting of Directors held on 11 December 2002 noted that:
The decline in EBITDA had resulted from reduced revenue and increased costs. The increase in costs was largely a consequence of the time required to integrate acquisitions. As a result costs were approximately $0.5 million per month higher than expected. Given the current reduced operating levels, costs were more than $1 million higher than appropriate for the current level of business.
9.5.7 This reference to "reduced operating levels" may be a reference to general market conditions.
9.5.8 NTG's Half Year Results dated 14 March 2003 noted that:
Cash out flows from operating activities for the half year ended 31 December 2002 were $0.3 million (31 December 2001, cash inflow $2.9 million). The deterioration in cash flows from operating activities has occurred due to the reduction in the market demand in the last quarter of the half year, greater operating expenses with staff levels geared to the higher revenue targets and the decision of the company to internally finance some sales.
9.5.9 The KPMG report dated 22 March 2004 prepared for BankWest notes that:
NTG's key market, the fixed line voice sector, is in decline. The underlying revenue growth in the other sectors in which NTG competes ranges from 3% to 7% pa.
9.5.10 The report goes on to summarise various key points to note on the competitive profile of the telecom services sector including:
Although the market share of providers - ex Telstra and Optus - has increased in recent years, this increase has, in general, been at the expense of margins and cashflow and includes significant price decline, especially in fixed line telephony services. Furthermore, smaller service providers have yet to demonstrate that they can compete profitably on a sustainable basis in a competitive market where scale is important. Also, growth in data services markets for smaller providers is yet to compensate for price decline in voice revenues. ...
The market for telco services is cyclical and very competitive with pricing / margin pressure evident. Revenues are also seasonal with cashflow pressures occurring January to March / April of each year.
9.5.11 In my opinion, the apparent negative changes in the market during the period prior to the Publication:
(i) Did have a negative impact upon NTG's business in the period prior to the Publication; and
(ii) Would have had a negative impact upon NTG's business in the period following the Publication (whether or not the Publication occurred).
Replication of model
9.5.12 One of NTG's perceived market advantages was its ability to offer a bundled package of products to its potential customers.
9.5.13 However, an SSB analyst's report on Commander dated 23 February 2001 noted that:
Commander is currently trialling a bundled product with Telstra in response to a successful competitor product. Bundling is positive for Commander in that it receives the system income up front, and also earns a commission on trailing carriage use.
9.5.14 I have seen no other information regarding trials of this bundled product. The next references I have seen to competitors replicating NTG's bundled product are in early 2003.
9.5.15 The Managing Director's Report included in the papers for the NTG Board meeting on 4 April 2001, noted that:
Also we are finding that other companies that are in our sphere have started to realise that they must change their business strategy and we are finding that some are trying to follow our methods.
At this stage they are still very small and in their infant stage but if we allow them to pick up momentum they will affect our business within 6-9 months time. I will be having discussions with some of the better players and planning a strategy on how to prevent this occurring.
9.5.16 SSB's report on Commander dated 11 November 2002 titled "Telstra relationship - dancing with the gorilla" stated:
Commander's relationship with Telstra is currently being re-negotiated, with a range of possible outcomes, threats, and opportunities. December is a critical time in that either party can signal its intention to leave from then on.
The parties are seeking mutually beneficial outcomes which would allow both parties to compete more effectively. Assessing the balance of power in this symbiotic relationship is difficult as is predicting the outcome.
In the event that the relationship is disbanded, we see considerable short term risk and disruption for Commander, offset by medium term strategic benefits.
In the meantime, due to slower than expected sales in the first quarter, we have downgraded our EPS forecasts by 10-12%.
We have downgraded our EPS forecasts by 10-12% for FY03e and FY04e following a decline in systems volumes (5-7%) in the first quarter due to the lack of a bundled offering in the face of intense competition. Commander's inability to access wholesale rates and consistently market a bundled product is a disadvantage in an increasingly competitive market place.
The company also experienced a disruption to the sales effort following a restructure of the division in May/June, resulting in inefficiencies during Q1. Inertia rental income continues to decline in line with management expectations, with cost savings helping to offset this decline in high margin income.
Until 1998, Commander was a division of Telstra, and was the monopoly supplier of phone systems to the SME market prior to deregulation in the late 1980s. In a decision to move away from selling equipment, Telstra sold 70% of its holding to Plestel, who then floated the business in December 2000, with Telstra retaining a 16% holding. RMB also had a 20.6% holding.
The current relationship (outlined below) exists until July 2003, and either party can move away with six months notice. Hence the importance of negotiations over the coming two months.
In more ways than one, Commander and Telstra remain joined at the hip. Commander is a key channel for a highly profitable segment of Telstra's target market, and Commander gains strong lead flow and billing services through Telstra.
There are a number of tenets to the relationship, including:
Lead flow - Telstra refers enquiries by SME's on phone systems to Commander in most circumstances, and Telstra sales staff are rewarded by Commander for any leads which are successfully converted. It is estimated that over 50% of Commander new product sales come via a lead from Telstra;
Billing - Telstra currently bills over 90% of Commander's voice customers (i.e. the Commander rental fee appears as a line on the Telstra telephone bill);
Carriage access - Commander is currently only allowed to sell/resell carriage from Telstra only at retail rates, which is a competitive disadvantage against more aggressive players with access to wholesale rates;
Commission on resale - Commander receives an upfront fee from Telstra for carriage sales as a FixedNet dealer, and a trailing commission over the life of a contract;
Factoring - Telstra currently factors Commander's bills at a favourable rate, which results in efficiencies and zero debtor risk to Commander;
Non-compete - Telstra will not compete with Commander for at least two years following listing (i.e. expires December 2002);
Forward looking information sharing - Telstra and Commander meet on a quarterly basis to discuss future product development plans and other strategic initiatives; and
Escrow - Telstra's shareholding is in escrow until December 2002.
While Commander and Telstra hold the largest market share and strongest brand in their respective markets, both are faced with intense competition in the space. Commander has lost market share to companies such as NTG which can access wholesale rates and bundle them with the phone system, creating a more attractive offering. However, it seems the most effective means of combating this competitive threat is to offer a similar bundle using wholesale rates, which would negatively impact on Telstra's largely retail sales to the SME sector.
The balance of bargaining power in negotiations is difficult to discern, although it is clear that both companies bring much to the party. Telstra generates an estimated $1.7bn of revenue in the SME market place, and Commander plays a crucial role in access to the market, through direct FixedNet sales and indirect leads via equipment sales. On the flipside, Telstra provides lead flow, billing, factoring and other shared services to Commander.
Potential outcomes from a renegotiation with Telstra (or a combination thereof):
Status quo - Commander will potentially remain uncompetitive with other bundled offerings, risk further market share loss, and ultimately this market share decline may also negatively impact Telstra's earnings from the sector;
Remain with Telstra on more favourable terms such as higher commissions on carriage resale and/or access to wholesale carriage for the purposes of bundling. Access to wholesale carriage for bundling would dramatically improve Commander's ability to compete, which would also offset the downstream effect on Telstra of market share loss. This would, however, involve a negative hit to Telstra in receiving lower average carriage rates from it's SME customer base;
Go it alone - Commander and Telstra may part ways altogether, which would free Commander up to access wholesale rates from an alternative telco, and would also allow Telstra to compete directly with Commander.
9.5.17 The effect on NTG of each of these three possible strategies of Commander would have been, in my opinion:
(i) Status quo - little change to the competition to NTG and NTG would retain any pricing advantages of its bundled offering;
(ii) Remain with Telstra on more favourable terms - increased competitive threat to NTG as Commander's prices would reduce; or
(iii) Go it alone - significantly increased competitive threat to NTG from Commander (the market leader) due to Commander being able to access wholesale rates (one of NTG's advantages) and a new competitive threat from Telstra.
9.5.18 Commander undertook the "go it alone" strategy by purchasing RSL COM which gave Commander access to airtime from various carriers. In my opinion, this meant that, irrespective of whether the Publication occurred, NTG would have been facing a significantly different competitive landscape in 2003 than it had in 2002.
9.5.19 An ABN Amro Morgans broker report 24 March 2003 noted that:
Commander' acquisition of RSL COM is critically important for the company' strategic development. With a bundled product, network billing system, enlarged customer base and the ability to access airtime from various carriers, the company is making a significant step towards life as an integrated telecommunications services provider.
9.5.20 The report to NTG Directors dated May 2003 under the headings "Report of the Chief Executive Officer" and "Market Review" notes:
A review of the market conditions faced by NTG and its dealers has demonstrated a softening of conditions. In particular market sentiment seems to have been effected by the Iraqi conflict, and the general economic outlook. Suppliers to NTG759 agree with this sentiment, with their own sales being at 50% of budget.
9.5.21 And under the further heading "competitor offerings" notes:
Additional competition is expected within the market place with Telstra and Commander unveiling their new offerings.
Telstra has launched a value proposition around ISDN, under Domovo, which sees telephony rebates offered to customers around an ISDN service. This offer is priced at around $2,000 with the end user tied to Telstra for a three-year period.
Commander, through its acquisition of RSL com, will be offering a "Synergy" type product to the market from 1st of July.
9.5.22 The minutes of meeting of Directors held on 21 May 2003 noted that:
The Managing Director advised that Commander was planning to launch a product similar to that of NTG [Synergy] on 1 July 2003.
9.5.23 A document internally generated by NTG titled "Positioning NTG for Sustainable Growth" dated 24 June 2003, under the heading "Competition" notes:
One of the main obstacles facing NTG is the fact that its main competitors are embracing the 'synergy' offering, meaning that NTG's share of the market will be further eroded. In particular the acquisition of RSL by Commander, the Optus indirect channel offering a 'Synergy' type product and Telstra's slated release of a like offering will see NTG's market share and margin further eroded. The accompanying table shows the go to market status for these competitors:
(i) Commander/RSL 1 July 2003;
(ii) Optus Engaging market;
(iii) Telstra 1 August 2003.
9.5.24 Commander's 2003 annual report dated 11 September 2003 noted that:
The acquisition of the RSL COM group provided the essential element of a strategy which has transformed Commander from a systems provider into a company that has the tools and expertise to provide a complete communications solution in voice, data, internet and telecommunications services. I am pleased to report that the integration is on track. Sales of the company's new bundled products and services commenced on 1 July 2003 and the transition of Commander customers to RSL COM's robust billing and customer management platform has progressed smoothly.
Before the acquisition RSL COM was Australia's largest privately owned network provider, and was chosen by Commander because of its size, profitability, complementary customer base and reach of the national telephony and data network. Our ability to provide a bundled product will contribute significantly to the growth of our business from the second half of the financial year and beyond.
The acquisition also transformed our relationship with Telstra: Commander and Telstra ended their retail relationship at the end of June 2003 and from July 2003 entered into a new wholesale agreement which sees us, through RSL COM, become one of Telstra's wholesale's largest customers.
The acquisition is a natural progression in the growth profile and maturing of our company and has given Commander a new and exciting business model. The Commander network and wholesale supply agreements provide an environment which gives us the ability to offer bundled products on competitive terms throughout Australia - essential for a fast-moving customer-focused organisation such as ours.
61Para 9.6.1 (set out in part in para [54] above) then contained this:
(v) A significant change in the competitive environment in which NTG operated meant that its competitors (and, in particular, the dominant industry player, Commander) replicated the otherwise unique aspects of NTG's business model, depriving NTG of any competitive advantage in its market.
62Similarly, paras 2.10.2(iii) and 2.12.2(iii) contain conclusions derived from this other material.
63The Plaintiff objects to this material on 2 grounds. First, it says Mr Ross has no expertise to enable him to discuss competition within the telecommunication industry and its effects on the Plaintiff. Secondly, the Plaintiff says that there is a reliance on material which in itself is inadmissible, that being the material set out in para 9.5 other than material contained in the Plaintiff's records. The objectionable material may be described as reports of brokers and analysts about he market.
64Mr Blackburn submits that the material is relevant to an issue about which there cannot be much doubt. He points to the affidavit of Mr Tawaf sworn 12 April 2011 where Mr Tawaf says at para 74, "Since 2002 a number of companies have sought to emulate the business model of NTG, including large telecommunication providers like Telecom and Optus". Mr Blackburn further submits that the documents referred to are plainly business records and are admissible despite the hearsay representations in them. He says that the documents are admissible because an expert opinion can be formed in reliance on all sorts of matters including other statements and documents
65Mr Blackburn pointed to what is said in Odgers, Uniform Evidence Law (2010) Thompson Reuters, 9 th ed, at para 1.3.4330:
Where some basis of the opinion is hearsay in form, that is, evidence of out-of-court representations of fact, careful analysis is required. Such evidence is not caught by the hearsay rule (s 59) because it is not adduced to prove the existence of the facts asserted by the representations - it is relevant and admissible to explain the assumptions on which the opinion is based.
66Mr Blackburn handed up a copy of the documents referred to in this part of Mr Ross's report. He ultimately submitted that only 2 of these documents could be regarded as business records. The first was a document prepared by JP Morgan Securities on 13 December 2002. The document was described as "morning meeting notes" and dealt with the Plaintiff. He submitted that it was a business record because it appeared on its face to be the notes of a meeting held within the offices of that company rather than a document produced for the purposes of dissemination to the market or otherwise. The other document was one prepared by someone at Bell Potter Securities on 31 July 2002 which was headed "For internal distribution only".
67In my view, the whole of the evidence in section 9.5 should be excluded. I do not consider that Mr Ross is proved to have the expertise to be able to provide an opinion on competition within the telecommunications industry. True it is that he discloses forensic accounting experience in relation to telephony companies, and in one case he was engaged to value a mobile phone business that was being sold. None of those matters self-evidently deals with competition within the industry for the way products were marketed.
68Moreover, the opinion expressed by Mr Ross appears only to be a conclusion based on a reading of a number of documents some of which would not be admissible as evidence in these proceedings. Those documents consist of reports from analysts and brokers that comment about the Plaintiff.
69But for the two documents to which I have made specific reference I do not consider that these reports are admissible as business records. The documents are not shown to be part of the business records of the Plaintiff. Rather, they are said to be the business records of the organisations that prepared the reports.
70In Roach v Page (No 15) [2003] NSWSC 939 Sperling J said:
[5] The records of a business are the documents (or other means of holding information) by which activities of the business are recorded. Business activities so recorded will typically include business operations so recorded, internal communications, and communications between the business and third parties.
[6] On the other hand, where it is a function of a business to publish books, newspapers, magazines, journals (including specialised professional, trade or industry journals), such publications are not records of the business. They are the product of the business, not a record of its business activities. Similarly, publications kept by a business such as journals or manuals (say, for reference purposes) are not records of the business.
...
[8] The approach may be tested in a commonsense way. It cannot have been intended that newspapers, magazines and journals (publication of any kind produced and / or received in the course of a business undertaking) would be evidence of whatever was stated in them.
71Similarly, in Roach v Page (No 27) [2003] NSWSC 1046 Sperling J said:
[9] So far as is presently relevant, it is the recording of business activities in the course of carrying on the business which is critical. The publication of a book by a business providing a history of the business may record details of the business carried on but it is not a "record of business" within the meaning of s69. Similarly, a flyer or a media advertisement or a website publication, extolling the virtues of the business in the way such publications do, is not a record of a business merely because it purportedly records activities of the business.
[10] It is necessary to place such a restrictive construction on s69 because it cannot have been intended that publications of this kind would qualify, any more than it would have been intended that - in the ordinary course - books, magazines or newspapers published by the business would be covered by that section.
[11] The thinking behind the section is clear enough. Things recorded or communicated in the course of the business and constituting or concerning business activities are likely to be correct. There is good reason for the courts to afford to such records the same kind of reliability as those engaged in business operations customarily do. The same is not true of publications made for wider dissemination, for entertainment, for advertising or for public relations purposes. Such publications are justifiably received with healthy scepticism.
That view was followed by Collier J in Forbes Engineering (Asia) Pte Limited v Forbes (No 4) [2009] FCA 675 at [101].
72Moreover, it is clear from the description of some of the reports (those in paras 9.5.9 and 9.5.24) that they post-date relevant events to such an extent as not to be relevant material in any event.
73Even if I am wrong in determining that the material is inadmissible the nature of the material is such that I would apply s 135 of the Evidence Act to exclude the evidence because its probative value is substantially outweighed by the unfair prejudice to the Plaintiff in not being able to test the material particularly when all that is known of it is that it consists of reports prepared by unnamed persons in various organisations who form a view about financial and economic matters at a given point in time. Whilst I accept that the lack of opportunity to test by cross-examination the material is not automatically fatal to the admissibility of a business record ( Guest v Commissioner of Taxation [2007] FCA 193 at [25]; Forbes at [104]), I consider there would be a sufficient unfair prejudice in the present case to exclude the material.
74Section 9.5, paras 2.10.2(iii) and 2.12.2(iii) (which largely replicate the material in section 9.5), para 9.6.1 (v) and para 9.1.1(v) (which contains similar material) should be rejected.