E. CONSIDERATION
35 In brief, counsel for Mrs McKenzie argues that:
(a) the Tribunal misapplied s 120(3) and engaged in impermissible fact finding at step 3 of the Deledio process; and
(b) the Tribunal required that precise evidence be adduced to support the asserted hypothesis at every point, when s 120(3) required no more than that the material before it pointed to the existence of the required criteria in SoP No. 41 such that the hypothesis fits within the SoP.
36 Counsel for the Commission rejects these contentions and submits that the Tribunal correctly applied s 120(3). It argues that the effect of ss 120(3) and 120A and the applicable SoP is to provide for a specific template that solely exists so that the decision-maker can ask: Is this a reasonable hypothesis in the sense that it fits the medical or scientific factors that have been set by the relevant medical experts?
37 It relies on East v Repatriation Commission (1987) 16 FCR 517 ("East") at 533 per Jenkinson, Neaves and Wilcox JJ. In relation to the requirement for quantitative evidence their Honours said:
If, on the other hand, the evidence is that exposure to quantity X of factor A may cause condition B, the hypothesis cannot be described as reasonable unless there is reason to believe that the veteran was exposed to factor A to the extent of quantity X.
The Commission relies on this passage as emphasising the need for quantitative evidence where, as in the present case, the applicable SoP sets out quantitative criteria. It argues that the poor quality and content of the evidence regarding the quantity of tobacco Mr McKenzie smoked and the duration over which he did so meant that the Tribunal did not have a "reason to believe" that factor 6(c) in SoP No. 41 existed.
38 I accept the Commission's contention that it is wrong to attribute much significance to the Tribunal's use of the word "determination" in expressing its conclusions at [59]: see Riley v Repatriation Commission [2008] FCA 531 ("Riley") at [44] per Edmonds J. The Commission argues that the Tribunal's determination that there was "no material" pointing to Mr McKenzie's consumption of the required minimum quantity of cigarettes was not a factual finding. It relies on the observation of Allsop J (approved by Lindgren and Emmett JJ) in Collins v Administrative Appeals Tribunal (2007) 163 FCR 35 ("Collins") at [48(e)], where his Honour explained that the Tribunal's task at this stage of the inquiry in the following terms:
The formation of the opinion involves the reaching of a factual conclusion: Bull 188 ALR at 760-62 [17] to [25] and involves the assessment of all the material before the Tribunal, but not the finding of facts or rejecting material: Bull 188 ALR at 761 [22].
The Commission argues that the Tribunal did not misapply s 120(3) in reaching the conclusions that it did at [59]-[62], and that its assessment of the factual material before it was no more than was necessary for the proper performance of its task.
39 The Commission also seeks to rely on the remarks of Mortimer J in Forrester at [72]-[73] where her Honour said:
To "fit" a SoP, the hypothesis must "fit" the causal aspect of the SoP and in that sense identify a relationship between the factor or factors relied on in the SoP and the veteran's war service. The hypothesis will then be reasonable (in a medical or scientific sense), because it is consistent with what the relevant medical experts have determined is a relationship between a disease, injury or death, and factors causative of that disease, injury or death and war service.
However this step in Deledio simply involves comparison between the hypothesis as articulated and the relevant SoP: after the introduction of s 120A, this aspect of determining reasonableness of the hypothesis largely centres on a matching exercise between the asserted hypothesis and the SoP, without a view being formed of particular facts.
40 On the Commission's submissions s 120(3), as affected by s 120A, required the Tribunal to make a factual assessment as to whether the hypothesis asserted by Mrs McKenzie matched the applicable SoP, and its conclusions did not constitute impermissible fact finding. It contends that the Tribunal's conclusions that there was "no material" are properly characterised as part of the Tribunal's assessment of the material before it rather than as a factual finding. It submits that the Tribunal simply assessed the statements of Mrs McKenzie in the context of all of her evidence and determined that it did not point to the existence of the required criteria in SoP No. 41.
41 On the Commission's argument, what the Tribunal meant by its conclusions at [59] is that it considered the evidence as to Mr McKenzie's consumption of cigarettes so vague or uncertain as to be insufficient to show that he had consumed the required quantity of cigarettes or other tobacco products. It says that this conclusion is unremarkable and does not show any misapplication of s 120(3) of the Act or impermissible fact finding. On this argument the Tribunal undertook the necessary consideration of the evidence before it, in accordance with the requirements of the Act, and the result of that consideration was that it was not satisfied that an essential factor in the SoP existed.
42 The Commission also seeks to draw comfort from the decision in Elliott v Repatriation Commission (2002) 73 ALD 377 ("Elliott") where Stone J at [25] found no illicit fact finding in the Tribunal's assessment of the evidence in that case and the formation of its opinion as to what could be drawn from it.
43 I do not accept the Commission's contentions. I consider that in reaching its conclusions at [59]-[62] the Tribunal misapplied s 120(3) as affected by s 120A and impermissibly descended into fact finding.
44 The passage in East which the Commission cites must be read in context and it does not go as far as the Commission contends. In East (at 532-533) the Full Court reviewed the history of the Act and explained the parliamentary intention behind the 1985 introduction of the "reasonable hypothesis" concept. Their Honours said:
The adoption of Brennan J's notion of a reasonable hypothesis meant that Parliament was requiring something by way of a causal link, but, which fell short of proof of the link - even prima facie - as a fact. The meaning of the phrase "reasonable hypothesis" was felicitously explained by a Veterans' Review Board in Stacey (unreported Nos V83/0396, V84/0821 and V28/072, 26 June 1985); words quoted by the Administrative Appeals Tribunal in Re Dell and Repatriation Commission (1986) 5 AAR 253 at 254-255:
"A hypothesis may be conveniently defined as: 'proposition made as basis for reasoning, without assumption of its truth; supposition made as starting point for further investigation from known facts; groundless assumption': The Concise Oxford Dictionary.
…
The addition of the word 'reasonable' would however seem to imply that what is required is more than a mere hypothesis. In the opinion of the Board, to be reasonable, a hypothesis must possess some degree of accountability of credibility - it must not be obviously fanciful, impossible, incredible or not tenable or to promote or too tenuous. For a reasonable hypothesis to be 'raised' by material before the Board, we think it must find some support in that material - that is, the material must point to, and not merely leave open, a hypothesis as a reasonable hypothesis. At the same time, however, a hypothesis may be reasonable without having been proved (either on the balance of probability or beyond reasonable doubt) to be correct as a matter of fact. Were it otherwise, it would no longer be a hypothesis but would have been elevated to some higher status….
We agree with this analysis. A reasonable hypothesis requires more than a possibility, not fanciful or unreal, consistent with the known facts. It is an hypothesis pointed to by the facts, even though not proved upon the balance of probabilities.
Quantitative evidence
The second submission put on behalf of the applicant in connection with s. 120 is that the Tribunal was wrong to reject Dr Hainsworth's evidence because he omitted to give any quantitative evidence of the factors to which he referred. The argument is that it can never be right to reject an hypothesis that factor A caused the veteran's condition B because of an absence of evidence as to the quantity or intensity of A experienced by the veteran.
Given the findings of the Tribunal, it is not clear that the correctness of this contention would affect the outcome of the present case. But, in any case, the contention goes too far. The necessity for quantitative evidence in a particular case must depend upon the nature of the hypothesis being expounded. For example, if a Tribunal accepts medical evidence that condition B may be caused by any degree of exposure to factor A, that the veteran was exposed to factor A and that he or she subsequently developed condition B, it would be wrong to reject the claim because of an absence of evidence as to the extent of the exposure. The hypothesis itself makes quantity relevant. If, on the other hand, the evidence is that exposure to quantity X of factor A may cause condition B, the hypothesis cannot be described as reasonable unless there is reason to believe that the veteran was exposed to factor A to the extent of quantity X. (Emphasis added.)
45 In my view East simply stands for the well-accepted proposition that the relevant element of an asserted hypothesis must be '"pointed to" or '"raised" by the evidence, and not merely left open. East does not require, at this stage of the inquiry, that each factual element of the hypothesis be proved by making findings on conflicting evidence or that precise evidence be adduced to finally make out each element.
46 Prior to the introduction of s 120A the High Court set out the methodology for a decision under s 120 in Byrnes v Repatriation Commission (1993) 177 CLR 564 at 571, per Mason CJ, Gaudron and McHugh JJ. Their Honours explained that proof of facts is not necessary under s 120(3), and said:
The position may be summarised as follows:
(1) First, subs (3) of s 120 is applied: do all or some of the facts raised by the material before the commission give rise to a reasonable hypothesis connecting the veteran's injury with war service? The hypothesis will not be reasonable if it is contrary to known scientific facts or is obviously fanciful or untenable. If the hypothesis is not reasonable, the claim fails. Proof of facts is not in issue at this point.
(2) If a reasonable hypothesis is established, subs (1) of s 120 is applied. The claim will succeed unless:
(a) one or more of the facts necessary to support the hypothesis are disapproved beyond reasonable doubt; or
(b) the truth of another fact in the material, which is inconsistent with the hypothesis, is proved beyond reasonable doubt;
thus disproving, beyond reasonable doubt, the hypothesis. (Emphasis added.)
47 In Bushell at 413, per Mason CJ, Deane and McHugh JJ, the High Court again dealt with the reasonable hypothesis concept and explained that the decision-maker is not required to resolve evidentiary conflict under s 120(3):
…s. 120(3) is not exhaustive of the content of s. 120(1). Sub-section (3) is concerned with whether "the material" raises a reasonable hypothesis that the relevant injury, disease or death was connected with the service of the veteran. It is not concerned with conflicts in the material, whether they be of opinion or fact. The purpose of sub-s. (3), as demonstrated by its terms and its history, is to ensure that a claim to which s. 120 applies is not met unless there is some material which raises the relevant causal hypothesis. (Emphasis added.)
Their Honours said at 414:
The material will raise a reasonable hypothesis within the meaning of s. 120(3) if the material points to some fact or facts ("the raised facts") which support the hypothesis and if the hypothesis can be regarded as reasonable if the raised facts are true.
Brennan J expressed a similar view at 428.
48 In Deledio v Repatriation Commission Heerey J undertook a comprehensive review of the history of Australian repatriation legislation, later endorsed on appeal by the Full Court. In regard to the introduction of s 120A his Honour explained (at 273):
…the 1994 amendments left intact the twin pillars of (i) the reverse onus of proof beyond reasonable doubt and (ii) the reasonable hypothesis. Accordingly, the new regime of SoPs has to be given an operation consistent with s 120(1) and 120(3) as expounded by the High Court in Bushell and Byrnes.
I respectfully agree.
49 His Honour said (at 275):
…it is necessary to repeat that the SoP has no function in relation to the proof or disproof (under s 120(1)) of the particular facts of a veteran's case. The SoPs function is limited to prescribing a medical-scientific standard with which a hypothesis must be consistent - so that the SoP can "uphold" the hypothesis. In the words of the minister (Hansard, 9 June 1994, at 1808) the SoPs were intended to "provide the template within which the individual claims will be determined". Put another way, the SoP is a subset of proved (Bushell at 414) or known (Byrnes at 571) scientific fact. Where an SoP is applicable, it is a statute-backed declaration of what is proved or known scientific fact…
The particular claim then has to fit the template laid down in the SoP. The Byrnes methodology is applied. Do the facts raised by the claimant give rise to a reasonable hypothesis? Proof of facts is not in issue at this point. The hypothesis will not be reasonable if it is:
(i) contrary to proved or known scientific facts;
(ii) obviously fanciful, impossible, incredible, absurd, ridiculous, not tenable, too remote or too tenuous; or
(iii) (since 1994) inconsistent with (not upheld by) an applicable SoP. (Emphasis added.)
50 His Honour's approach was upheld on appeal in Deledio. As I have said, since then the four step Deledio process has been followed in numerous single judge and appellate decisions. The authorities show that proof of facts is not required at steps 1-3 of the Deledio process, and that fact finding at these stages is impermissible. For example in Dixon v Repatriation Commission [1999] FCA 582 at [25] Wilcox J held:
The question whether a decision maker reaches a conclusion adverse to a claimant at the step 3 stage or the step 4 stage is not a mere technicality. If belief is addressed at the step 3 stage, there is a risk that the decision maker will rule against a claimant simply because he or she is not persuaded the claimant's story is probably true… This would defeat the protection for veterans embodied in s 120(1), whereby a claim which fits within the factors in the relevant Statement of Principles must be accepted unless the decision maker is satisfied, beyond reasonable doubt, that it is without justification. (Emphasis in original.)
See also Elliott at [5] per Stone J; Riley at [11] per Edmonds J.
51 In Collins at [8] Lindgren J confirmed that the resolution of evidentiary conflict was impermissible in the first three stages of the Deledio process. His Honour said:
At the first three stages, the Tribunal is required to deliberate at a level of abstraction and it is only at the fourth stage that it is required to descend to the resolution of evidentiary conflict, and it is then required to do so according to the "beyond reasonable doubt" standard.
52 At [48]-[49] Allsop J, with the approval of Lindgren and Emmett JJ, explained the decision-maker's task under ss 120(3) and 120A in the following terms:
Without seeking to qualify the authorities to which I have referred, I take the following to be settled and uncontroversial principles concerning the undertaking of the task in s 120(3) as affected by the existence of a SoP under s 196B and by s 120A(3):
(a) The Tribunal must consider the whole of the material before it: s 120(3).
(b) The Tribunal is to form an opinion whether the material raises a reasonable hypothesis connecting the injury, disease or death with the circumstances of service: s 120(3).
(c) The formation of that opinion involves consideration as to whether a relevant SoP upholds the hypothesis: s 120A(3).
(d) At the stage of formation of the opinion in (b), involving the consideration in (c), no question of fact finding arises: Deledio 83 FCR at 97.
(e) The formation of the opinion involves the reaching of a factual conclusion: Bull 4 AAR 326; 188 ALR 756 at [17]-[25] and involves the assessment of all the material before the Tribunal, but not the finding of facts or rejecting material: Bull 4 AAR 326; 188 ALR 756 at [22].
As has been shown in a number of cases concerning ss 120(3) and 120A, the dividing line between impermissible fact finding and required assessment of all the material in the formation of an opinion as to whether a hypothesis is reasonable in connecting the injury, disease or death with the circumstances of service and as to whether a relevant SoP upholds the hypothesis is not necessarily easy to discern. The kinds of fine questions that can arise were discussed in Elliott v Repatriation Commission (2002) 73 ALD 377; Cameron v Repatriation Commission (2003) 77 ALD 81; Repatriation Commission v Bey (1997) 79 FCR 364; and Gleeson v Repatriation Commission 34 ALD 505… (Emphasis added.)
53 In the present case the Tribunal was required to form an opinion as to whether the evidence before it pointed to the existence of the required criteria in SoP No. 41. If it did then the SoP would uphold the asserted hypothesis and it would be a reasonable one. The real question is whether in making a factual assessment in order to form an opinion the Tribunal crossed the dividing line and descended into impermissible fact finding. As Allsop J observed, this line can be difficult to discern.