12 Those observations can, I consider, be reconciled with my own comments in VBAB to reinforce the proposition that neither an applicant seeking to establish a well-founded fear of persecution nor the Tribunal in expressing itself to be not satisfied of the existence of such a fear, can rely on mere assumption or speculation or what R D Nicholson and Emmett JJ called, in the passages just quoted, a presumption. Thus, if an applicant adduces evidence, or the available country information indicates, that the latest known circumstances in the applicant's country of nationality provide a foundation for the fear asserted by the applicant, it is not open to the Tribunal to assume or speculate that conditions in that country have changed so as to eliminate the basis of the claimed fear. However, that unremarkable proposition does not relieve an applicant of the burden of adducing some evidence tending to establish such a fear. In the present case, the Tribunal expressly adverted to country information derived from an article written in 1995 by the Australian journalist, Lindsay Murdoch, which suggested that the Government's ability to protect Muslims from LTTE violence had been weakened or compromised in the appellant's home region around the town of Batticaloa. By contrast, there was no reference to evidence suggesting a similar breakdown of governmental control or law enforcement in Colombo and the appellant adduced no such evidence. It was therefore open to the Tribunal to have declined by implication to reach the state of satisfaction mandated by s 65 of the Act that the appellant as a young man living in Colombo with only a "tangential link with the Muslim Home Guards some years ago" would still have a well-founded fear of persecution. As Kirby J observed in Minister for Immigration and Ethnic Affairs v Guo (1997) 191 CLR 559, at 596;
'However, the mere fact that a person claims fear of persecution for reasons of political opinion does not establish either the genuineness of the asserted fear or that it is "well-founded" or that it is for reasons of political opinion. It remains for the Minister in the first place to be "satisfied" (the Act, s 22AA) and, where that decision is adverse and a review is sought, for the applicant to persuade the reviewing decision-maker that all of the statutory elements are made out.'
13 In written submissions in support of the appeal to this Court, it was indicated that, if the Tribunal's finding that the appellant would have access in Colombo to protection from persecution was the reason or part of the reason for refusing him a protection visa, "then the Tribunal has not complied with the requirements of section 424A." That argument was not pressed on the hearing of the appeal. However, it draws attention to the reasoning process which led the Tribunal to be not satisfied that the appellant had a well-founded fear of persecution.
14 In the course of its hearing on 11 December 2002, the Tribunal exposed to the appellant its understanding of what was then the current situation in Sri Lanka by asking;
'.. what I suppose the real crux of the issue now is, is why couldn't you go back now? Things have changed a lot, so let's start from this end now rather than from the other end about why you left. Why can't you go back now?'
15 To that question the appellant replied;
'… The situation is - the base is between the government and the LTTE Tigers, but not based among the people. There's no protection for people.'
16 After discussion of the extent to which the LTTE exerted control, including the exercise of de facto judicial power, in Sri Lanka, the Tribunal asked the appellant "why couldn't you be in Colombo" where there are "lots of people?" The appellant gave some non-responsive answers to that question before the Tribunal asked "what I am struggling to see is why …. how it would affect you in terms of safety now?" The appellant again evaded the question by speaking of his father's formation of a Muslim home guard and a massacre which had occurred in his home village when the appellant had been 15 or 16 years of age. Later, in the course of the same evidence to the Tribunal, the appellant accepted that he had left his home village in about 1996 for Colombo where he had lived for about 3 years and never returned to his village. That acknowledgement led to this exchange between the Tribunal and the appellant;
Tribunal Member: '… That's a fair while to spend there and you are not harmed, so again I keep coming back to why can't you go back to Colombo now. If you could stay there when things were bad, you could stay there for three years; when things aren't bad now why can't you go and live there now?'