The actuarial evidence
31 I will turn, then, to the actuarial evidence. That evidence is contained in an actuarial report of Mr Adam Payne, who is the appointed actuary of the Australian Subsidiary and the German Company. Mr Owens took me through the report dated 21 May 2010 in some detail this morning. There are a number of aspects of the report that I should refer to briefly.
32 As Mr Payne points out, the underwriting or portfolio risks of the Australian Subsidiary were 100 per cent reinsured within the Talanx Group. This reinsurance is net of claims handling expenses and policy administration provision, which are of course not reinsured.
33 The Australian Subsidiary is in run-off, but the Branch is writing insurance business on a net retained basis. The planned net retention of the Branch is approximately 22 per cent of claims in the initial years of operation in the lines of business proposed to be written.
34 Mr Payne's report proceeds upon a number of assumptions referred to in paragraph 5.2. These include an assumption that all of the Australian Subsidiary's reinsurance arrangements will be transferred to the Branch, and that all the rights and obligations of the Australian Subsidiary under those reinsurance policies will become rights and obligations of the Branch.
35 In paragraph 5.3 of his report, Mr Payne refers to a matter which is of some importance. He refers to the fact that if there is a shortfall in the minimum capital ratio as at the effective date, then funds sufficient to increase the minimum capital requirements to a figure of 145 per cent of APRA's minimum capital requirement will be made.
36 Although the reinsurance is within the Talanx Group, Mr Payne has assumed that the probability of non-recovery of reinsurance is remote. His valuation of the insurance liabilities therefore assumes full recoverability of the reinsurance assets.
37 There is a table at page 16 of Mr Payne's report which shows the capital adequacy multiples before the transfer contemplated by the scheme. The position as at 31 December 2009 was that the Australian Subsidiary had a ratio of 268 per cent as against the Branch which was at 274 per cent. The projected figure at 30 June 2010 is 299 per cent for the Australian Subsidiary and 267 per cent for the Branch.
38 Another matter which is relevant to consider is the loss deposit account referred to at paragraph 8.1 of the report. As Mr Payne there observes, provision is made for the Australian Subsidiary to transfer the balance of the loss deposit account to the Branch.
39 The loss deposit account is comprised of funds which have been deposited by the reinsurer against the reinsurance liabilities. The arrangements that underlie the scheme are that an amount of $12 million will be transferred from the loss deposit account held by the Australian Subsidiary to the Branch. There is at present approximately $15 million in the account but $3 million will be repatriated to the Talanx Group in Germany. However, an additional $10 million in a separate loss deposit account will be provided so that the total amount in the account upon the implementation of the scheme will be in the order of $22 million.
40 Table 8.1 at page 18 of Mr Payne's report is an important table. It shows the statement of expected financial position as at 30 June 2010 and shows the position pre- and post-transfer. I do not need to set out the figures that are contained in the table. It is sufficient to say that the position pre-transfer for the Australian Subsidiary was 299 per cent of APRA's capital adequacy requirements whereas the position of the Branch upon implementation of the scheme will be 152 per cent.
41 Mr Payne's report proceeds upon the basis that he considers the probability of the Branch not being able to meet its insurance liabilities following the portfolio transfer to be less than 0.5 per cent. He sets out in table 8.2 on page 19 the projected position pre- and post-transfer for the Branch which shows that the comparison is 267 per cent pre-transfer as at 1 July 2010 and 152 per cent post-transfer. There are projections for these capital ratios out to 2013.
42 The effect of Mr Payne's report is that he was satisfied that the interests of policyholders should not be adversely affected in any material way as a consequence of the scheme.
43 However, following the provision of Mr Payne's report, Mr Jefferson Robert Gibbs provided a peer review of Mr Payne's report. As Mr Owens has pointed out this morning, the peer review was extremely detailed and raised a number of questions in relation to the report.
44 The conclusion reached by Mr Gibbs was that nothing came to his attention that would lead him to believe that Mr Payne's conclusions are unreasonable. Mr Gibbs set out, and commented upon, the text of Mr Payne's conclusions on page 35 of his report which is annexed to his affidavit of 23 June 2010 as follows:
I have reviewed the following aspects of the Scheme Transfer Report:
- The methods used by the AA in assessing the Scheme.
- Judgements made by the AA for reasonableness and materiality.
- Whether key risks and uncertainties, and their implications, have been identified.
The AA's conclusions are summarised within Section 10 of the Scheme Transfer Report as set out below:
"Given the expected financial position of HG/AUST immediately following the transfer we are satisfied that the Scheme provides adequate financial security to the policyholders of both companies; noting that there is always uncertainty with the outcome of insurance business and ongoing solvency cannot be guaranteed.
Given that the HDI-GAUS policies will be assumed by HG/AUST with no changes to the policy terms and conditions, we are satisfied that the Scheme will not adversely impact the interests of HDI-GAUS policyholders in this regard.
Give the claims management practices of each company now and the plans for claims management practices following the transfer, we do not believe that there will be any detriment to policyholders in this regard.
In summary, we are satisfied that the interests of policyholders should not be adversely affected in any material way as a consequence of the Scheme."
Having carried out the review as described in this report, nothing has come to my attention that would lead me to believe that the AA's conclusions are unreasonable.
45 The points which Mr Gibbs noted were twofold. First, there was a shift for the policyholders of the Australian Subsidiary from an ASIC registered company to a branch and Mr Gibbs points out that any risks and implications of that shift are not discussed in Mr Payne's report. The second point is that Mr Gibbs says that he "noted a number of ambiguous statements" in Mr Payne's report. The ambiguities are not set out, but he said they were discussed with Mr Payne but remain unchanged in Mr Payne's final report.
46 Mr Payne deals with the issues raised by Mr Gibbs. He responds to Mr Gibbs's report in his affidavit of 23 June 2010 in a way which is sufficient to satisfy me that the issues raised by Mr Gibbs do not affect the conclusions reached by Mr Payne. The conclusions are summarised by Mr Payne in paragraph 4 and 5 of his affidavit as follows:
4. For the reasons set out in my report, I am of the opinion and belief that:
(a) given the expected financial position of the Australian branch of the German Company immediately following the transfer, I am satisfied that the Scheme provides adequate financial security to the policyholders of both companies; noting that there is always uncertainty with the outcome of insurance business and ongoing solvency cannot be guaranteed;
(b) given that the Australian Subsidiary policies will be assumed by the Australian branch of the German Company with no changes to the policy terms and conditions, I am satisfied that the Scheme will not adversely impact the interests of the Australian Subsidiary policyholders in this regards; and
(c) given the claims management practices of each company will remain unchanged as the same staff will continue to manage the claims following the transfer, I do not believe that there will be any detriment to policyholders in this regard.
5. In summary, I am satisfied that the interests of policyholders should not be adversely affected in any material way as a consequence of the Scheme.