"Damages for loss of opportunity
15. The principles by which some loss or damage for the loss of an opportunity to enter into an alternative investment are to be established and quantified are well established.
16. The plaintiffs must establish:
(a) on the balance of probabilities, that their entry into the Prosperity Bond policies caused them to lose a commercial opportunity which had some, not merely negligible, value; and
(b) by reference to the degree of probabilities or possibilities, the value of the opportunity lost.
17. In Sellars v Adelaide Petroleum NL [1994] HCA 4; (1994) 179 CLR 332 at 355, Mason CJ, Dawson, Toohey and Gaudron JJ described the manner in which this two stage enquiry is to be approached as follows:
"[T]he applicant must prove on the balance of probabilities that he or she has sustained some loss or damage. However, in a case such as the present, the applicant shows some loss or damage was sustained by demonstrating that the contravening conduct caused the loss of a commercial opportunity which had some value (not being a negligible value), the value being ascertained by reference to the degree of probabilities or possibilities. It is no answer to that way of viewing an applicant's case to say that the commercial opportunity was valueless on the balance of probabilities because to say that is to value the commercial opportunity by reference to a standard of proof which is inapplicable."
18. In short, in a case such as this, a plaintiff must "establish that he could and would have entered into the different contract and that it would have yielded the benefit claimed": Gates v The City Mutual Life Assurance Society Ltd (1986) 160 CLR 1 at 13 per Mason, Wilson and Dawson JJ. If it cannot do so, it will have not have established any loss.
19. If a plaintiff can establish that he or she could and would have entered into some non-negligible alternative investment opportunity, the value of that opportunity will be assessed by reference to the degree of probability of the claimed value of the investment actually coming to fruition, even if it is less than 50%: Malec v J C Hutton Pty Ltd [1990] HCA 20; (1990) 169 CLR 638 at 642-643 per Deane, Gaudron and McHugh JJ; Sellars v Adelaide Petroleum NL [1994] HCA 4; (1994) 179 CLR 332 at 355-356.
20. The defendant does not accept that the plaintiffs' entry into the Policies actually deprived them of any alternative investment opportunity that would otherwise have been open to them. That is to say, while it may be the case that the plaintiffs would not have invested in the policies had it not been for the defendant's unconscionable conduct, it is for the plaintiffs to establish, to the satisfaction of the Court, that the fact that they did invest in the policies prevented them from making some other form of investment. If at the time there was no other investment opportunity that they found attractive, or if there was some attractive investment but they had the means to invest in it and decided not to for some reason, then the defendant's conduct could not be said to have caused them to miss an alternative opportunity. The relevant facts will be explored during the hearing. "