An additional ground of negligence
100As has been recounted, the plaintiff had a variety of conditions which affected him in May 1999. He had a perianal abscess and a hard left testicular mass, which Dr. Varipatis was concerned might be malignant. Liver function tests indicated elevated liver enzymes with a cholestatic pattern. This, in Dr. Varipatis' view, may have been related either to biliar obstruction or a side effect of the drugs prescribed by Professor Borody. An ultrasound taken at this time identified a gallstone and early fatty change of the liver. Dr. Varipatis referred the plaintiff to RPA for further investigation with respect to:
(a)Possible cholestatic hepatitis;
(b)Perianal abscess;
(c)Testicular mass.
101Mr. Almario attended the emergency department at RPA on 27th May 1999. Note was made of the elevated liver function results, despite them being somewhat improved in comparison to his previous results. One of the emergency department doctors advised Dr. Varipatis in writing that the liver function test results should be "monitored". Dr. Varipatis accepted that he neglected to do so. Despite consultations every other month for the rest of 1999, no further tests were ordered until January 2000. This was unfortunate because Dr. Varipatis accepted that the tests were of concern because they showed worsening results including decreased serum albumin which Associate-Professor Weltman said may be a sign of the onset of cirrhosis.
102Dr. Varipatis was concerned that the testicular mass was malignant and the worsening LFTs evinced secondaries in the liver. This dire possibility was negated by the pathology results following the orchidectomy Mr Almario underwent on 22nd July 1999. Dr Varipatis agreed that one of a number of discrete, serious pathologies could have accounted for the deteriorated liver function including NASH, or even cirrhosis: 346.10T. But he did nothing to investigate further to exclude or confirm them, instead working on the assumption that the problem emanated from the biliary system.
103What is significant is that from mid 1999 onwards, the condition of Mr Almario's liver had emerged as an area of concern in its own right as a separate discrete problem amongst the interrelated co-morbidities arising from his obesity. But no step was taken to look into it, such as referring Mr Almario to a hepatologist. I find referral should have occurred after the patient recovered from his surgery by spring 1999. It was foreseeable that a serious liver disease was underway and the risk of deterioration was not insignificant
104When further LFT's were carried out in January 2000 they were highly elevated. An abdominal ultrasound and CT scan each demonstrated a fatty liver and cholelithiasis. Dr Varipatis re-referred Mr Almario to Prof. Borody. When asked whether the patient needed to be referred to a specialist with expertise in liver problems Dr Varipitis said I assumed I had already done that: 353.15T. I understood this to be a reference to Prof. Borody. But he was a gastro-enterologist, specialising in the lumen. He did not hold himself out as an expert in liver disease. I infer that this is something that Dr Varipatis could have found out.
105In any event Prof. Borody considered that the abdominal pain and big liver were due to gallstones and he referred the patient on to a surgeon, Dr Falk. Professor Borody regarded the liver function test as highly elevated and consistent with a cholestatic hepatitis. He thought the surgeon should remove the gallbladder and at the same time do a liver biopsy and a cholangiogram. The latter is a standard procedure when performing a cholecystectomy. Professor Borody said you can see if there is an obstruction inside of the liver, say, from the nodules of cirrhosis. A biopsy may have shown the state of Mr Amario's liver and whether it was cirrhotic at 2000.
106Dr Falk was not prepared to operate because of what he regarded as the high surgical risk, unless Mr Amario lost significant weight. The plaintiff was referred again to a dietician but was unsuccessful in achieving his targets and Dr Falk declined to operate.
107A new surgeon, Dr Moot, was engaged. By June 2000 Dr Moot reported the patient had lost weight and he proposed to operate. The surgery was carried out on 25th August, 2000. The biopsy seems to have been overlooked. The cholangiogram was performed and was said to be normal (EX D - Experts Vol 4, p2195). No liver functions tests were taken between January and August.
108Dr Moot did not make any surgical findings consistent with cirrhosis. Taken with the normal cholangiogram this may be very significant, as the defendant's bariatric surgeon Assoc. Prof. Brown (Ex D1, p 37) said cirrhosis would have been apparent at the time of the surgery. In Ex P9, at page 4, Assoc. Prof. Strasser accepted that the liver did not look grossly cirrhotic at surgery but said that does not exclude the presence of cirrhosis.
109After the surgery the liver function tests remained elevated, and indeed despite the removal of the gallbladder the LFT results were worse: 352.15T. Dr Varipatis agreed that the results, with which he was uncomfortable, showed a man that could have very serious pathology affecting his liver: 352.42T. Notwithstanding this, Dr Varipatis did not refer Mr Almario to a hepatologist. Dr Varipatis said he thought Prof. Borody was taking care of that. This evidence reflected poorly on Dr Varipatis. Prof. Borody last saw Mr Almario on 27th February 2000, and the defendant knew that he was under the care of no one with expertise in liver pathology: 353.15-50T. There is no doubt in my mind that a cholestatic cause of Mr Almario's liver function problems having been excluded, reasonable care on the part of a general practitioner in the position of the defendant required referral to a physician, preferably a hepatologist, for further investigation of his liver condition. Given the inter-current medical conditions, including the testicular cancer scare, the gallstones, and the difficulty in getting Mr Almario in shape for surgery, it was probably reasonable not to initiate that referral before September 2000, but from then such a referral in my judgment was required as a matter of some urgency even if in the first instance the referral was back to Prof. Borody for his further advice. Had that occurred, Prof. Borody, I infer, would have referred the patient on to a suitably qualified expert, probably a hepatologist.
110In fact, further specialist referral did not occur until 22nd May, 2003 when Dr Varipatis referred Mr Almario to the gastroenterologist, Dr Antony Wettstein. By then a CT scan demonstrated intra-abdominal ascites because of liver failure. This, as I have already described, is a complication of cirrhosis. This is two and half years after a reasonable general practitioner in Dr Varipatis' position would have excluded a cholestatic explanation for the abnormal LFT's.
111In the terms of s.5B Dr Varipatis knew or ought to have known that the elevated LFT's may have been due to serious pathology, including NASH as a real possibility, and that given Mr Almario's co-morbidities the condition was likely to progress. The development of cirrhosis and its complications were both foreseeable and not insignificant.
112A reasonable general practitioner in his position would have taken the precaution of referring Mr Almario to an appropriately qualified physician no later than end of September 2000. It was highly probable that he could develop cirrhosis. The advent of complications of liver failure and liver cancer were much less likely (305.30-45T), but if they eventuated the harm was likely to be very serious indeed. The burden of Dr Varipatis making the referral to an appropriate specialist was slight in the extreme. The social utility of medicine does not provide a justification for not taking the precaution, quite the contrary.
Summary of findings about negligence
113I find Dr Varipatis negligent in the following respects:
aFailing to refer Mr Almario to a bariatric surgeon for consideration of his suitability for surgery of that type by 30 July, 1998;
bIn the alternative to (a), failing to take the appropriate steps I have described to re-refer Mr Almario to an obesity clinic;
cFailing to refer Mr Almario to a hepatologist, or similarly qualified physician, by the end of September 2000 for the specific investigation and treatment of his liver condition.
Some further observations on liability issues
114The plaintiff advanced his case on negligence on a wider front than set out in my reasons so far. For instance much was made of Dr Varipatis giving credence to the plaintiff's concerns that his poor health was due to exposure to chemicals at work. This was said to have reinforced and entrenched an attitude in the plaintiff which hindered his appreciation of the need to take action to address his co-morbidities by losing weight. The evidence supported the need for clear lines of communication in the therapeutic relationship. And one can accept the confounding effect of the advice about toxins. On the other hand Dr Varipatis, Prof. Allen and Dr Donohoe thought toxins had something to do with Mr Almario's overall malaise, including the condition of his liver. Dr Donohoe had some particular first hand knowledge of conditions at the Union Carbide site. This body of opinion, but to some extent only, validates Dr Varipatis' approach on this score.
115On the evidence I have heard, were it necessary for me to decide the question, I would not have been persuaded that Mr Almario's rather minimal exposure could be sufficient to justify any available diagnosis. Moreover, I accept the strongly expressed views of Assoc. Prof. Strasser that liver disease due to toxic chemicals in the workplace is not a recognised cause of liver disease. As a specialist hepatologist she is in the position of expertise superior to the nutritional and environmental general practitioners.
Causation
116Mr Almario carries the onus of proof on all questions relevant to causation: S.5E Civil Liability Act.
117S.5D(1)(a), as is now well recognised, is a statutory statement of the but- for test for causation : Strong v Woolworths Limited [2012] HCA 5; 86 ALJR 267 at [18]. The plurality judgment in Strong points out a particular difficulty that may arise where a plaintiff is required to prove on the balance of probabilities that negligence constituted by an omission is a necessary condition of the particular harm suffered by the plaintiff. Here, on each finding of negligence I have made, I have found that Dr Varipatis failed to take a precaution a reasonable general practitioner in his position ought to have taken. At [32] the plurality said:
Proof of the causal link between an omission and an occurrence requires consideration of the probable course of events had the omission not occurred.
A further complication is that the present case falls into that class of case where there is more than one sufficient condition of the plaintiff's harm. First, there is the defendant's negligence, and secondly, there is the ordinary untreated course of the progression of his underlying disease.
118Moreover, an additional difficulty is that establishment of the probable course of events had the omission not occurred requires consideration on a hypothetical basis of what a third person i.e. the specialist to whom Mr Almario ought to have been referred (each finding of negligence relates to a failure to refer to a specialist) would have done.
119At [20] of Strong the majority said:
Under the statute, factual causation requires proof that the defendant's negligence was a necessary condition of the occurrence of the particular harm. A necessary condition is a condition that must be present for the occurrence of the harm. However, there may be more than one set of conditions necessary for the occurrence of particular harm and it follows that a defendant's negligent act or omission which is necessary to complete a set of conditions that are jointly sufficient to account for the occurrence of the harm will meet the test of factual causation within S.5D(1)(a). In such a case, the defendant's conduct may be described as contributing to the occurrence of the harm.
(See also Idameneo (No.123) Pty Ltd v Gross [2012] NSWCA 423 at [63]-[76] per Hoeben JA.)
120Two final contextual points need to be made. First, to succeed on the causation issue the plaintiff needs to establish on the balance of probabilities that positive intervention by the defendant would have arrested, indeed reversed, the ordinary course of his disease. Secondly, each ground of negligence I have found depends in part on the compliance by the plaintiff with a prescribed course of treatment. On the one hand, if offered bariatric surgery he would still need to change his lifestyle to achieve the necessary weight loss. Manifestly, achieving the same goal by conservative means requires even greater changes in lifestyle, and the plaintiff's track record has been of failure of the conservative approach.
121The hypothetical question about what Mr Almario would have done had Dr Varipatis not been negligent is to be determined subjectively in the light of all the circumstances, but excluding what Mr Almario himself would wish to say about his state of mind or what he would have done in the absence of the defendant's negligence.
122It needs to be borne in mind that all questions of causation are asked for the purpose of attributing legal responsibility for harm. S.5D(1)(b) and S.5D(4) address this consideration.
123However, the but for test is normatively neutral: Tabet v Gett [2010] HCA 12; 240 CLR 537 at 586 [140] per Kiefel J.
124In a medical negligence case the damage said to be caused by the negligence of the defendant will be demonstrated by showing that a difference has been brought about and that the defendant's negligence in the provision of medical treatment was a cause of the difference:
The comparison invoked by reference to "difference" is between the relevant state of affairs as they existed after the negligent act or omission, and the state of affairs that would have existed had the negligent act or omission not occurred [original emphasis]: Tabet at 564 [66] per Hayne & Bell JJ
The loss of a chance of a better medical outcome is not damage for which a plaintiff may recover.
125The first ground of negligence found by me is failure to refer Mr Almario directly to a bariatric surgeon for the treatment of his general condition, not his liver condition specifically, by 30th July 1998. Bearing in mind that all questions of causation must be determined retrospectively, as I have previously said, the point of the inquiry is what happened and why. I am satisfied by reference to the joint report of the surgeons (Ex P8) that Mr Almario would have been considered for surgery, probably laparoscopic adjustable gastric banding. All the surgeons agreed that he would have been considered.
126It may be a different question whether the surgery would have been offered and this depended upon a number of considerations.
127I stress that the question here is being asked and answered in the context of his morbid obesity and co-morbidities. The evidence before me is that the benefits of bariatric surgery as a treatment specific to NASH had not been recognised until 2003 when the available body of research was brought together in the Clinical Practice Guidelines for the Management of Overweight and Obesity in Adults, endorsed by National Health and Medical Research Council of Australia in September 2003. Or perhaps from 2002 when hepatologists understood that NASH results from insulin resistance. There is a direct relationship connecting obesity, diabetes, and NASH: Ex P9, the Joint Report of the Hepatologists, Q1.
128To some extent this is surprising as the point of bariatric surgery is weight loss, and weight loss has always been the treatment for NASH as well as obesity: see for example, 461.25-40T per Assoc. Prof. Strasser.
129All of the hepatologists seemed to agree that the American experience was somewhat different in that the benefits of bariatric surgery were recognised there earlier than here. Assoc. Prof. Strasser said that there was a lot of interest in bariatric surgery locally. She said:
...for the reasons of diabetes and other complications of severe obesity, not for liver disease, but the consequences in terms of the liver were not recognised...(463.30T)
Assoc. Prof. Weltman said of the American experience that there were no controlled clinical trials. Rather, if someone failed medical treatment you would give them permission to consider a surgical option but the best advice is to lose weight medically, and if you cannot control things medically then you can think about other options, and one of those other options would be a type of surgery because there is no other option (463.5T). Even so, he said he didn't refer anyone for bariatric surgery in the period 1997-2002 (465.5T). It wasn't until 2004 that research was published that showed that bariatric surgery could improve liver outcomes at least to one year after the surgery (465.25T).
130Assoc. Professors Strasser and Weltman agreed that the co-morbidities to which Mr Almario was subject required obesity management but reference for bariatric surgery in the period 1997-2002 was not the standard practice from a hepatologist (Ex P.9, Q15, p10). Dr Vickers agreed that Mr Almario was suffering from a severe multi-systemic disease. He said if medical help fails there is bariatric surgery. In his oral evidence, he emphasised that you should not look at NASH in isolation; you need to consider the whole complex. He repeated that if medical treatment fails you had to think what else was available as a doctor to try and help that patient with his weight reduction. The what else is bariatric surgery. And subsequent controlled studies have justified its past practice when required (469.50-470.15T).
131But at this level of enquiry the views of the hepatologists are probably not to the point. The question relates to direct referral to a bariatric surgeon.
132The surgeons agreed that rapid weight loss may be contra-indicated in the case of a patient with compromised liver function. All the surgeons also agreed however that adjustable gastric banding was a form of surgery that leads to gradual, not rapid, weight loss. All also agreed that that procedure was available in the period 1997-2003. What was made clear was that bariatric surgery was reserved for patients who had tried to lose weight by conservative (medical) means and had demonstrably failed. On his history as I have recounted it, this seems to eminently qualify Mr Almario for consideration.
133A question arose about what was said by Mr Almario to Dr Varipatis on 30th April 1998 about obtaining no positive result concerning his chest problems after reducing his weight from 140kg to 110kg. With respect, that matter was put somewhat inaccurately by senior counsel in examination of Dr Ritchie. The question was put on the basis that Mr Almario hadn't felt weight loss was of any beneficial use to him because he didn't feel any better. On this basis Dr Ritchie said if he was to put that proposition to me, then I would begin to wonder whether he was a suitable candidate for surgery (494.25-45T). As I have said that is not what Mr Almario said and I think this evidence of Dr Ritchie can be put to one side.
134The effect of Dr Ritchie's evidence taken as a whole was that if the patient had lost weight in the past and then regained it, and was therefore seriously obese with co-morbidities, he would be offered surgery (494.20T). It is my understanding of the evidence of Prof. Morris and Assoc. Prof. Brown that they agreed with that approach.
135The surgeons were in agreement that had Mr Almario successfully undergone bariatric surgery before he had cirrhosis it was more likely than not he would have avoided progression to cirrhosis, liver failure and liver cancer (Ex P8, Q9, p7). The latter two conditions being separate complications of cirrhosis.
136All of the surgeons agreed that the rate of success in terms of permanent weight loss, and adaptation to changes in lifestyle, is greater than fifty percent. This success rate applies to adjustable gastric banding.
137A concern of the surgeons was the degree of cognitive impairment displayed by tests commissioned by Dr Teo. The concern in that regard relates to the patient's ability to learn new information to comply with the requirements of lifestyle change following surgery. But all the surgeons agreed that the relevance of that consideration depends upon the severity of the impairment and whether or not the type of impairment suffered affects in a significant way executive functions relating to the acquisition of new information. On my understanding of it, the evidence in this case does not suggest to me that Mr Almario's cognitive impairment is of that type.
138Bearing in mind that bariatric surgery is offered to obese people, the surgical risks tied up with obesity are not a barrier to its performance. Moreover, it should be borne firmly in mind that Mr Almario was able to be prepared for his orchidectomy and cholecystectomy. He came through both surgical procedures without reported complication. I am persuaded that this factor would not have been a barrier to him undergoing bariatric surgery in or about 1998.
139Assoc. Prof. Strasser pointed out that since she has become familiar with bariatric surgery as a treatment for liver disease, in her experience it is never offered to patients with cirrhosis or known liver complications (461.15T).
140The question of whether the evidence shows that Mr Almario had developed cirrhosis by 1998 is an important one on this question of whether bariatric surgery could have been undertaken. Assoc. Prof. Weltman thought Mr Almario may have had cirrhosis (without complications) from as early as 1992 because of a low serum albumin count at that time. However there were no consistently low readings as early as that. Although Assoc. Prof. Strasser generally agreed, her opinion was somewhat qualified. She explained there might be many explanations for a low serum albumin count. I have already recounted that at the cholecystectomy in 2000 Mr Almario's liver did not look cirrhotic. But more importantly the cholangiogram was normal. And Prof. Borody explained that obstruction caused by cirrhosis would have been evident on that test had it existed.
141Moreover, although cirrhosis may be insidious its extent and rate of progress varies from individual to individual affected. Importantly, Assoc. Prof. Strasser said that in general terms there is thought to be a ten year interval from the development of cirrhosis to the development of liver cancer (Ex. P9, Q10, p5). It is not disputed that Mr Almario developed liver cancer in 2011. This fact ties in with the evidence that there was a low platelet count in June 2001 (Ex. P3A, p30)
142This ties in also with Assoc. Prof. Strasser's view expressed in Ex. P9, Q9, p4, that:
Cirrhosis can be present without any outward manifestations and it is not until that one starts to develop what is called portal hypertension or increased size of the spleen that the platelet count starts to drop so certainly that is the clinical marker of concern for cirrhosis but it does not mean that cirrhosis was not present previously.
143Dealing with the matter on the balance of probabilities I find that cirrhosis did not develop in Mr Almario's case until June 2001. Accordingly that condition was not a barrier to him undergoing bariatric surgery in or about the latter part of 1998.
144A very significant factor to be determined relating to causation is whether I am satisfied that Mr Almario could make the necessary lifestyle adjustments to make bariatric surgery a success. His previous failed attempts to lose weight might be considered to be predictive of failure even following surgery. Past experience in a mature person may provide some guide to future expectations of the type that need to be considered in this hypothetical question. On the other hand, his past history does bespeak success at losing weight on a number of occasions. Although his experience might be a difficulty relating to causation issues on the alternative basis of negligence, given that bariatric surgery is a treatment which has worked successfully in patients like Mr Almario with a history of past failure, I find on the balance of probabilities that he would have been able to comply with the lifestyle changes necessary to succeed in overcoming his obesity following bariatric surgery.
145A subsidiary issue relates to Mr. Almario's means. He has not worked since 1992 and he and his wife live on social security in a housing commission house. The evidence is that bariatric surgery in the late 1990's would have cost around $15,000. Simply put, they didn't have it. Mr. Almario says that his family in Colombia - his father was a senator and other members of the family are in business - are wealthy and would have leant him the money if necessary. He has also called evidence from a Mr. Ward, a long time personal friend who said that had he been asked to lend Mr. Almario the money he was in a position to raise it and he would have done so willingly. Likewise, his sister-in-law, Mrs. Almario's sister, has given evidence that she and her husband are comfortably off and would have been happy to lend the money if they had been asked so that Mr. Almario could have had the surgery. Mrs. Szarek emphasised that she and her husband would have been content to allow her sister and brother-in-law to repay the money in small amounts over a long period of time.
146Both of these witnesses were cross-examined by Mr. Higgs SC on a series of assumptions about Mr. Almario's past inability to lose weight and the need to change his lifestyle in any event after bariatric surgery. The thrust of the cross-examination was that if properly informed that it seemed unlikely that Mr. Almario could sufficiently comply with the post-operative, rigorous requirements of lifestyle change, they would not have decided to lend the money. Effectively, the implication of the cross-examination was, regardless of strong bonds of friendship or family neither Mr. Ward nor Mrs. Szarek would have been persuaded to waste their money by funding an expensive procedure that would have no effect because Mr. Almario wouldn't comply. As I understand the evidence of each of them, both rejected the propositions so skilfully put by the cross-examiner.
147An affidavit was also read from a Mr Vriduar Vega. Mr Vega set out his means and assets and swore that because of his close friendship with Mr Almario he would have given him the cost of surgery without hesitation. He was not cross-examined.
148The evidence before me establishes that Mr Almario was unable to afford to pay for the detoxification treatment prescribed by Dr Varipatis. It also establishes that in the late 1990s bariatric surgery was not available to public patients. It is but rarely available to public patients now. In this context, this issue was properly raised by the defendant. However I accept the evidence that friends and family would have been prepared to help.
149On balance, I am satisfied that had bariatric surgery been offered to Mr. Almario in the late 1990's he would have been able to raise the necessary money to pay for the procedure from family or friends, and would have done so.
150I am satisfied on the balance of probabilities that had Mr Almario been referred by Dr Varipatis to a bariatric surgeon by or on 30th July 1998, surgery would have been offered and undertaken; it would have been successful; and Mr Almario would have complied with the necessary lifestyle changes; more than likely his NASH would not have progressed to cirrhosis, and the complications of cirrhosis which he has suffered, including liver failure and liver cancer, would not have developed.
151Accordingly, I am satisfied that the negligence of Dr Varipatis in omitting to refer Mr Almario to a bariatric surgeon was a necessary condition of the progression of his liver disease to cirrhosis, which occurred in June 2001, and liver failure and finally liver cancer.
152I turn now to the alternative finding that Dr Varipatis was negligent in not referring Mr Almario to an obesity clinic or endocrinologist. Two eminent experts, Prof. Michael Hooper and Prof. John Carter, gave the evidence on this topic. Their joint report is Ex P7. I think it necessary to set out a portion of that report.
2. How was obesity treated in Australia the period [sic] August 1997 to June 2003? Who would carry out such treatment? Did it on occasions include bariatric surgery and, if so, in what circumstances?
RESPONSE:
Joint response Obesity was treated between August 1997 and June 2003 in Australia with lifestyle changes ie reduced energy intake, exercise, and medications, of which there were four on the market at that time.
Professor Carter opines that bariatric surgery was rarely offered.
Both Professors Hooper and Carter opine that bariatric surgery was offered in certain circumstances to people with severe obesity and associated with co-morbidities after careful evaluation by a multi-disciplinary team.
The evidence base is summarised in the 'Clinical Practice Guidelines for the Management of Overweight and Obesity in Adults' published by the NH&MRC on 18 September 2003.
3. What was the role of dieticians and diabetes clinics in the period in relation to the treatment of obesity and diabetes?
RESPONSE:
Joint response Dieticians played a paramount role in the treatment of diabetes and obesity. Diabetes was treated either by a GP, diabetic clinics, or diabetes specialists in private practice. Between 1997 and 2003 there were a smaller number of obesity clinics, and on occasions, severely obese subjects were referred to such clinics for advice.
153In oral evidence Prof. Carter made it clear that he had personally never referred a patient to a bariatric surgeon until after the 2003 publication and he became convinced of the skill and expertise of the surgeons involved. Prof. Hooper made it clear that he, whilst in practice in Adelaide, had very frequently referred patients to bariatric surgeons during the 1980s. However since returning to practice in Sydney, Prof. Hooper has not been involved so much in the management of obesity. His interest now is in metabolic bone disease. Most of his patients with morbid obesity are now referred on to an obesity clinic. He did say suitability for bariatric surgery requires a very careful evaluation.
154In view of Mr Almario's history of inability to maintain weight loss in the past, I think it unlikely that a further reference to an endocrinologist or even a specialised obesity clinic would have produced a long-term favourable result. As Mr Higgs pointed out in argument, even when Mr Almario experienced liver failure in 2003, despite initially impressive success at losing weight, he was unable to achieve the target required of him by Dr Wettstein. Accordingly, in my view, unless an obesity specialist referred him for assessment by a bariatric surgeon, medical treatment of his obesity was likely to be unsuccessful and he would not have avoided developing cirrhosis and the complications which have since befallen him.
155I turn now to the third finding of negligence consisting of the failure to refer Mr Almario to a hepatologist or other gastroenterologist for the specific treatment of his liver disease by the end of September 2000. I have set out the evidence of the hepatologists. It is unlikely that a hepatologist would have undertaken much by way of treatment himself or herself; rather the patient would have been referred on for treatment of his obesity. Even on Dr Vickers' approach, as at the year 2000 it would have been necessary for a hepatologist to be satisfied of a repeated failure to lose significant weight by conservative means before bariatric surgery would have been considered, on the ad-hoc basis he discussed. It is important to refer to some evidence of Prof. Borody. In the period 1997-2003, he had referred obese patients to bariatric surgeons for weight loss. One needs to bear in mind that he did not treat liver disease and he did not treat obesity, but he did say (at 273.15-20T):
So if someone had a co-morbidity and they asked about it, if diet had failed, you referred them to someone who might operate. But, in those days, gastric banding was all that was available and there were more complications than good results.
156What the evidence of the hepatologists and Prof. Borody emphasises is that medical treatment was preferred to surgery. But I think I can infer from this evidence that surgery was an option that would have been considered for a patient with Mr Almario's history, but not by a hepatologist himself or herself as at September 2000. Someone else would consider the option after the patient had been referred on by the hepatologist.
157Once again, I am of the view that conservative treatment, referred to as medical treatment by the hepatologists, would have failed. And unless Mr Almario was referred to a bariatric surgeon he would not have avoided the progress of his condition to cirrhosis and its complications because he would have been unable to lose sufficient weight by conservative means.
158In summary, the plaintiff succeeds on causation on one ground only.