Ground (1)(a) - Assessment of chance of persecution
19 The first ground raised by the applicant in the Circuit Court criticised the manner in which the Tribunal assessed the chance of persecution faced by the applicant if he returned to Pakistan. The essence of the applicant's submission in the Circuit Court was that the Tribunal adopted a "probabilistic" or mathematical approach to calculate the chance of persecution that failed to properly address the applicant's individual circumstances. To explain, it is necessary to outline the legal principles on which the applicant relied.
20 The applicant alleged in the Circuit Court that the Tribunal misapplied the "legal principle enunciated" in Minister of Immigration and Ethnic Affairs v Guo [1997] HCA 22; 191 CLR 559 (Guo). The applicant relied in particular on the emphasised passage in the extract below from Guo at 571-572:
"Well-founded" fear of persecution for a Convention reason
An applicant for refugee status must also establish that his or her fear of persecution for a Convention reason is a "well-founded" fear. This element adds an objective requirement to the requirement that an applicant must in fact hold such a fear. In [Chan v Minister for Immigration and Ethnic Affairs [1989] HCA 62; 169 CLR 379 (Chan)], Mason CJ said:
"If an applicant establishes that there is a real chance of persecution, then his fear, assuming that he has such a fear, is well-founded, notwithstanding that there is less than a 50 per cent chance of persecution occurring."
In the same case, McHugh J said that a real chance of persecution excluded a far-fetched possibility of persecution but that as little as a 10 per cent chance of persecution may constitute a well-founded fear of persecution.
Chan is an important decision of this Court because it establishes that a person can have a well-founded fear of persecution even though the possibility of the persecution occurring is well below 50 per cent. But to use the real chance test as a substitute for the Convention term "well-founded fear" is to invite error.
No doubt in most, perhaps all, cases … the application of the real chance test, properly understood as the clarification of the phrase "well-founded", leads to the same result as a direct application of that phrase. [Minister for Immigration and Ethnic Affairs v Wu Shan Liang [1996] HCA 6; 185 CLR 259] is an example. Nevertheless, it is always dangerous to treat a particular word or phrase as synonymous with a statutory term, no matter how helpful the use of that word or phrase may be in understanding the statutory term. In the present case, for example, Einfeld J thought that the "real chance" test invited speculation and that the Tribunal had erred because it "has shunned speculation". If, by speculation, his Honour meant making a finding as to whether or not an event might or might not occur in the future, no criticism could be made of his use of the term. But it seems likely, having regard to the context and his Honour's conclusions concerning the Tribunal's reasoning process, that he was using the term in its primary dictionary meaning of conjecture or surmise. If he was, he fell into error. Conjecture or surmise has no part to play in determining whether a fear is well-founded. A fear is "well-founded" when there is a real substantial basis for it. As Chan shows, a substantial basis for a fear may exist even though there is far less than a 50 per cent chance that the object of the fear will eventuate. But no fear can be well-founded for the purpose of the Convention unless the evidence indicates a real ground for believing that the applicant for refugee status is at risk of persecution. A fear of persecution is not well-founded if it is merely assumed or if it is mere speculation. In this and other cases, the Tribunal and the Federal Court have used the term "real chance" not as epexegetic of "well-founded", but as a replacement or substitution for it. …
(Citations omitted and emphasised added.)
21 The applicant further argued in the Circuit Court that the Tribunal had committed the same error as identified in DZADQ v Minister for Immigration and Border Protection [2014] FCA 754; 143 ALD 659 (DZADQ), which involved the judicial review by Mansfield J (on appeal from the Circuit Court) of a decision of the Refugee Review Tribunal.
22 The relevant passages of DZADQ, which in turn extract the relevant consideration by the Refugee Review Tribunal, are as follows:
53 In my view, the tribunal committed jurisdictional error when reaching the conclusion that the appellant did not have a well-founded fear of persecution on religious grounds. …
54 Although the tribunal made several findings on the appellant's credibility and expressed serious doubts on the reliability of his evidence, it made several positive findings in his favour. The tribunal was satisfied that he was a Pakistani national. That means Pakistan would be the country he would be returned to if his visa application was denied. The tribunal accepted that he is a Shia Muslim. The tribunal also formed several conclusions after considering numerous materials in relation to country information. The tribunal stated in its reasons (at [137]):
[137] The Tribunal accepts that sectarian violence is a problem in Pakistan. However, as put to the applicant at hearing, when the Tribunal considers that there are estimated to be over 40 million Shia Muslims in Pakistan, it is of the view that there is only a very remote chance that the applicant will be the victim of an incident of sectarian violence if he returns to live with his family in their home in Peshawar, Pakistan. The Tribunal does not accept that there is a real chance that the applicant […] will be persecuted in the context of the sectarian violence in Pakistan if he returns to that country now or in the reasonably foreseeable future. […]
55 Later in its reasons (at [141]) the tribunal said:
[141] Although, as stated above, the Tribunal accepts that sectarian violence is a problem in Pakistan, it does not accept on the evidence before it that there are substantial grounds for believing that, as a necessary and foreseeable consequence of the applicant being removed from Australia to Pakistan, there is a real risk the applicant will suffer significant harm.
56 The latter passage must refer back to [137] of its reasons, as the interim passages also reflect summary conclusions based on the same material and the rejection of the appellant's other claims.
57 The first point to note about [141] of the reasons is that it is a rejection of the fact of there being any relevant risk to the appellant by reason of his Shia religion if he returns to Pakistan. What evidence there is to support that is not identified, except perhaps in the statistical approach in [137]. No other country information identified by the tribunal supports the view that Shia Muslims in Pakistan are not the subject of sectarian violence or violence by the Taliban.
…
61 In my view, the reasons of the tribunal, particularly at [137] show that it did not have regard to the country information in the light of its findings. That paragraph, apart from a statistical analysis, does not disclose any reason for the general conclusion which it contains. The tribunal identified and recognised the general risks facing the appellant as a Shia Muslim in Pakistan. However, it proceeded to find that the risk is "remote" because there were over 40 million other Shias in Pakistan. There was nothing else in the tribunal's reasons that would explain how it considered the risk to be remote besides referencing that number. This differed from the delegate's approach, which identified those general risks against Shia Muslims, but concluded that relocation to another part of Pakistan would be a reasonable course of action to not be exposed to that risk.
…
65 The tribunal was satisfied that the appellant was as a Shia Muslim at risk of serious harm by reason of his religion. The tribunal however classified that risk as being too remote. In my view, the essential link in the chain of reasoning connecting the two findings was missing. Besides quoting that there are over 40 million Shia Muslims in Pakistan, the tribunal, in its published reasons, did not consider the evidence that underpinned its ultimate finding that the risk was remote. In my view, its task was not done by the numerical analysis. It should have considered the appellants' particular circumstances. If it be the case that there is nothing to distinguish the appellant from other Shia Muslims in Pakistan, provided the country information (common to both the delegate and the tribunal) stands, it is hard to see how the conclusion of the tribunal is sustainable. If there were some small or local sectarian violence, the picture the country information indicated would not be so dramatic or compelling. To the contrary, the picture appears to be that it is coordinated, pervasive and effective, and the Taliban are presented as a cogent and broadly spread instrument of its application. It should not be adequate, in the face of such data, to say in effect that although a significant number of Shia Muslims will be severely harmed or killed by that pervasive targeted violence because you as a target group are numerous, the chances of any particular one of you being as harmed or killed is not a real one or is fanciful.
66 Accordingly, … I think the tribunal did commit jurisdictional error.
(Emphasis added.)
23 Returning to the present case, the applicant argued in the Circuit Court that the analysis of the Tribunal in the present case was erroneous in the same manner as the Refugee Review Tribunal in DZADQ. The applicant argued that the only link between the generally improved security situation in Pakistan, punctuated by two terrorist events, and the conclusion that the risk faced by the applicant was remote, was the following analysis by the Tribunal:
79. … The Tribunal considers that it would be mere speculation to find on the evidence before it that this terrorist attack means that there has been such a deterioration in the security situation in Parachinar, or in the Kurram Agency generally, that there is a real chance that any individual Shia Muslim member of the Turi tribe such as the applicant living in that area will be killed or injured in such a terrorist attack in the reasonably foreseeable future. …
24 The applicant argued that this analysis by the Tribunal was numerical, and only numerical, and the Tribunal thereby committed the same error as the Refugee Review Tribunal in DZADQ.
25 The Circuit Court held in the present case that the Tribunal's consideration of the applicant's circumstances was distinguishable from the manner of consideration undertaken by the Refugee Review Tribunal in DZADQ. The Circuit Court explained as follows:
19. … In the present case, the Tribunal recorded relevant country information in paragraphs 65 to 76 of its reasons for decision. It was for the Tribunal to assess that country information and draw conclusions from it, not for this court to draw its own conclusions.
20. In addition, in paragraph 65 of DZADQ, Mansfield J said that the Tribunal should have, but failed to, consider the applicant's particular circumstances. Relevantly, the present applicant's particular circumstances were that he was a Shia Muslim from the Turi tribe and from Kurram Agency. The Tribunal considered the risks facing such people at length, and in the light of country information, and concluded that the applicant did not have a well-founded fear of harm for reasons of generalised violence.
21. I am not persuaded that the Tribunal made a DZADQ -type error or misapplied the test in Guo. In assessing whether a fear is well-founded, it is necessary to consider the degree of likelihood of the feared event occurring. That requires an assessment of degrees of probability. In the present case, the Tribunal assessed the country information, and the applicant's circumstances, and reached a conclusion which was open to it. This ground is not made out.
26 I agree with the Circuit Court. To start, the Tribunal did not misapply Guo. The relevant principle extracted from Guo and applied by the Tribunal at [79] was the High Court's statement that "[c]onjecture or surmise has no part to play in determining whether a fear is well-founded". The Tribunal's view was that, given the attack in Parachinar on 13 December 2015 was the first in almost two and a half years, it would be speculative to deduce from that incident that there had been a deterioration in the security situation such that the applicant would face a real chance of persecution. In accordance with the relevant principle in Guo, the Tribunal did not engage in such speculation. I do not discern error in this approach.
27 Second, the Circuit Court was correct to distinguish DZADQ with the present case. The relevant fault of the Refugee Review Tribunal in DZADQ was to uncritically calculate the chances of the non-citizen in that case experiencing persecution simply by reference to the size of the broader population (i.e. there are over 40 million Shia Muslims in Pakistan, therefore the chances of one particular Shia Muslim being harmed is minor), rather than actively engage with the country information before it to determine whether a real chance of persecution existed in the non-citizen's particular circumstances. As stated by the Circuit Court, the consideration by the Tribunal in the present case was different. The Tribunal assessed the applicant's individual claims at [49]-[59]. It then outlined and considered significant country information at [65]-[76]. Although the Tribunal did refer to statistics regarding the decline in violence in Pakistan, the Tribunal's reasoning was not merely numerical, as alleged by the applicant. The Tribunal considered the applicant's personal circumstances, and the relevant country information, and reached a conclusion that was open to it.
28 For these reasons, the Circuit Court did not err in dismissing ground (1)(a) raised by the applicant in that court.