v. Giving significant weight to another valuation method, which is heavily dependent on assumptions that had never previously been required to be made, about which there was limited experience from which to draw, and concerning matters that had never previously been given any weight.
44 If considerations such as those outlined above were made out, it would be established that there was no "broad consistency" within the meaning of Schedule 5, clause 3.13.
The different actuarial methods
45 There are various different actuarial methods that have been mentioned in these proceedings. It is convenient to presently address the terms the features of each one.
The ICD method
46 The ICD, or "incurred claim development", method is a method for estimating the ultimate gross (i.e., before taking into account reinsurance recoveries) liabilities of an insurance portfolio.
47 The ICD method examines the change, or "development", of incurred claim costs (payments actually made, plus estimates on open claims) for a particular half-year period in each subsequent half-year period. The development in the amount of incurred claim costs each half-year allows the actuary to identify historical ratios from period to period, and these ratios are called "ICD factors". The actuary then uses these historical ratios, or ICD factors, to project the future development of claims.
48 For example, if an actuary were looking at claims for the half year ending June 2002, he or she would look at the total amount of incurred claims costs for that period at June 2002, December 2002, June 2003, December 2003, June 2004, and so on.
49 At the end of June 2002 the total amount paid out in claims, plus claims managers' estimates on open claims, might be $100,000. When the actuary returned to look at the incurred claims costs for that period in December 2002, the amount might have risen to $150,000. When the actuary looked at it again in June 2003, the total might have risen to $225,000.
50 The actuary would examine the change in incurred claims costs for the June 2002 half year in each subsequent period, and use that information to predict the ultimate amount of the incurred claims costs for the period.
51 The ultimate incurred claims costs can be expressed as a dollar amount, and as a percentage of the premium charged for the relevant period. The latter produces a number known as the "loss ratio". If a portfolio for a particular half-year has an ultimate loss ratio of 50%, it thus means that half of all premiums collected for the period would ultimately be paid out in claims costs.
52 Hence the ICD method, for any given period, looks at the portfolio as a whole in order to derive the projected ultimate loss ratio. It is then necessary to estimate the amount that will be recovered by reinsurance.
53 Before 2007, Ms Harrex used the ICD method to value older periods (pre-June 2002).
The BF method
54 The BF method is also a method for estimating the ultimate gross (i.e., before taking into account reinsurance recoveries) liabilities of an insurance portfolio.
55 The BF method blends the actual experience of a portfolio for a particular period with the projected experience for that same period, to produce an estimate of the ultimate gross liabilities. It does so in the following way: