16 Whether or not the respondent did so earlier, findings of Grove J establish that in March 1989 the respondent managed treatment of the patient on the view that the EDC was 9 March 1989, an estimate which accommodated the possibility of several days variation earlier or later. Grove J found that the respondent recorded this estimate in a note which he made on his own clinical record on 23 February 1989. The note said (Blue 6D) "E.D.C. 9.3-89." The respondent's evidence about when he made the note is not completely uniform; at one point his evidence appears to mean that he made the note (or might have made the note) on 9 February 1989, but Grove J found that this was a slip, not consistent with the respondent's evidence at earlier and later points. If the note had been made on 9 February 1989 there would have been some apparent anomalies between that fact and the account given by the respondent in evidence of the circumstances in which he wrote the estimate on his clinical record.
17 Some matters in evidence tend to show that at earlier times the respondent made a different EDC. There are anomalies in succeeding estimates of the length of gestation noted on the respondent's clinical record. No estimate was recorded in the notes relating to the first consultation on Monday 17 October 1988. After obtaining the ultrasound report of Wednesday 19 October 1988 the respondent next saw the patient on Monday 14 November 1988; and was then able to examine the patient and assess the fundal height of the foetus. At this consultation he recorded the view that gestation was at 24 weeks, and also estimated 24 weeks on the basis of assessment of fundal height.
18 The respondent's record shows his observations and views on eight further consultations before 20 March 1989, the last being on 16 March 1989. On Thursday 15 December 1988, which was four weeks and three days after the consultation on 14 November 1988, the respondent estimated the period of gestation at 29 weeks, which was 5 weeks longer than the estimate noted on 14 November 1988; and made an estimate of 29 weeks based on the assessment of fundal height; other observations were recorded, none of which indicates any anomaly.
19 On Thursday 12 January 1989, after a further 28 days, the clinical record shows an estimate of 33 weeks gestation and also an estimate of 33 weeks based on observation of fundal height; and other observations. On Thursday 9 February 1989, after a further 28 days, the record shows an estimate of 37 weeks gestation and the note "T" meaning term, at which assessment based on fundal height was no longer available. The note made on Thursday 16 February 1989 after a further 7 days includes, consistently, an estimated gestational length of 38 weeks. After a further 7 days the record of the consultation on Thursday 23 February 1989 shows the same gestational length of 38 weeks; this estimate would produce an estimated gestation of 40 weeks on 9 March 1989, and that is the EDC which, as Grove J found, the respondent recorded on 23 February 1989.
20 The clinical record continued, including, in relation to the consultation of Thursday 16 March 1989, an estimate of gestational length at 41 weeks and the note "induce next week." At each consultation from 15 December 1988 the respondent observed and noted that the head of the foetus was above the pelvic brim and was not engaged (or on 2 March 1989 one-fifth engaged); these observations continued until 16 March 1989; and they were indications tending against an induction. There are substantial reasons for not intervening too early. Induction is not free from hazard, nor is Caesarean section. Among the factors against intervention was the patient's wish for a spontaneous delivery. At many places evidence dealt with considerations bearing on decisions to proceed by induction, or by surgery, and the risk factors affecting decisions to proceed in some such way, or to await a natural vaginal delivery.
21 The crisis which developed on the night of Monday 20 March 1989 and the birth of the appellant in the first minutes of Tuesday 21 March 1989 occurred before the decision "induce next week" was acted on, and fewer than 14 days after the respondent's EDC of 9 March 1989. There is no substantial ground, in the findings of Grove J or in any of the material to which counsel for the appellant referred, for a view that reasonable care and skill required intervention to induce labour, or surgical intervention, at an earlier time than the respondent decided and intended.
22 There appear to be internal anomalies in the series of estimates in the respondent's clinical record. Although 31 days elapsed from 14 November 1988 to 15 December 1988, the estimated gestation was increased by five weeks, suggesting 35 days. (I refer to this as the four-day anomaly.) From 15 December 1988 until 16 February 1989 the notes are consistent with an EDC at 40 weeks at or about 2 March 1989, although none of them records precisely that. The four-day anomaly means that the note of 14 November 1988 suggests a later EDC. Seven days elapsed between the consultations on 16 February 1989 and 23 February 1989, but the estimate at both dates was 38 weeks. The appearance of anomaly at this stage is greatly blunted when it is recalled that no adjustment was earlier made to rectify the four-day anomaly.
23 Obstetric practice is not a science but a human art upon which a great deal of science is brought to bear, and there are few complete certainties. EDCs and estimates of the length of a gestation are not susceptible of certainty and the actual outcome may well be several days different to a well-considered estimate. Estimation should not be infused with a precision which it does not have.
24 If I adopt 20 weeks as the period of gestation at the time of the ultrasound report of 19 October 1988 and add a further 20 weeks the product of this calculation is a gestation of 40 weeks at 8 March 1989; to add 16 weeks to the estimate of 24 weeks at 14 November 1988, the first consultation after the ultrasound report became available, produces a gestation of 40 weeks at 6 March 1989. The crude calculations I have made give no more than a general indication; the ultrasound report and the clinical notes speak in terms of numbers of weeks, not numbers of days, and they cannot be treated as attempted precise observations in terms of numbers of days. Obstetric skill and clinical observation dominate over arithmetic. My calculations lead me to the view that, given the nature of the subject, an EDC at 9 March 1989 as recorded on 23 February 1989 and acted on in March 1989 is quite close to the estimated gestational length recorded by the respondent on 14 November 1988 and indicated in the ultrasound report of 19 October 1988; there is no marked anomaly, not really any anomaly at all. My calculations are only crudely similar to methods used by obstetricians, who have the advantage of medical skill and experience and clinical observations.
25 It was the respondent's evidence that on 14 November 1988, when the ultrasound report was available and he made observations of the patient and estimated the fundal height, he calculated an EDC of 9 March 1989, although he did not then record it. The respondent further contended that he did not depart from that estimate, and that apparent departures in his clinical notes were a result of the four-day anomaly. Grove J was of the view that the respondent's evidence that he always had in mind an EDC of 9 March 1989 was not discordant with his clinical record, and his Honour accepted the respondent's explanation of the circumstances in which the record of 38 weeks appears twice.
26 Expert evidence makes it clear that it is good practice to adopt an EDC and then adhere to it, for reasons which include ensuring avoidance of the consequences of going past 42 weeks, and for other reasons relating to managing obstetric issues as they arise. In evidence the respondent stated clearly (Black 3/742) that he believed that a recalculation that made the gestation of the patient 38 weeks again on 23 February 1989 was the correct thing to do based on the information he had. In view of the information which evidence shows that he did have, this recalculation altogether outweighs the significance of its being good practice to make an EDC and adhere to the estimate.