Consideration of the appeal
20 The appellant's appeal is focussed on the following sentence in the IAA's reasons at [16], noted above:
Although the country information before the delegate indicates that the Sri Lankan authorities continue to search for former LTTE members, to assess the likelihood of the Sri Lankan authorities discovering the applicant's past LTTE involvement is speculation.
21 Counsel for the appellant submitted that, by characterising the assessment of the appellant's claim (to fear harm) as involving speculation, and by treating that characterisation as determinative, the IAA failed to conduct the assessment required by s 473CC of the Act. It was submitted that the assessment of the refugee and complementary protection criteria in ss 36(2)(a) and (2)(aa) of the Act, which requires application of the "real chance" and "real risk" tests respectively, necessarily involves speculation about the likelihood of the feared events occurring in the future. In that respect, counsel for the appellant relied on the following summary of the applicable principles in CSO15 v Minister for Immigration and Border Protection (2018) 260 FCR 134 at [23] (CSO15):
Both the refugee and complementary protection criteria, insofar as they require a focus on risk of harm (whether for specific reasons or not), require the decision-maker to engage in a predictive and therefore somewhat speculative task about what is likely to happen to a person in the reasonably foreseeable future on return to her or his country of nationality: see Minister for Immigration and Ethnic Affairs v Wu Shan Liang (1996) 185 CLR 259 at 277-279 (Brennan CJ, Toohey, McHugh and Gummow JJ); NAHI v Minister for Immigration and Multicultural and Indigenous Affairs [2004] FCAFC 10 at [13] (Gray, Tamberlin and Lander JJ); Iyer v Minister for Immigration and Multicultural Affairs [2000] FCA 1788 at [27] (Heerey, Moore, Goldberg JJ); SZQXE v Minister for Immigration and Citizenship (2012) 134 ALD 495 at [7] (Flick J). These authorities were considered in CPE15 v Minister for Immigration and Border Protection [2017] FCA 591 at [59]-[60].
22 Counsel for the appellant also relied on the recent statements of the Full Court in AKH16 v Minister for Immigration and Border Protection [2019] FCAFC 47 at [48] and [63] (AKH16):
[48]…the assessment of whether a person fears persecution on return to her or his country of nationality, must involve speculation about the future, and an assessment of the period of time to look into the future.
[63]…As we have indicated above in dealing with the true enquiry, it may lead to error to focus on such notions as 'speculative' in this context. However, in considering an assessment of the future, there must be some degree of speculation (as distinct from guesswork) based upon present and past information. For instance, one is speculating in this sense about the future when one is considering and making a finding as to whether further sectarian violence may occur and if so, whether a particular individual is likely to be affected by or caught up in it. However, on the ultimate issue the question always remains that dictated by the principles outlined in Chan and Guo to which we have referred above. The inquiry being fact intensive, and involving assessment of evidence and material which is qualitative and may tend in different directions, it is also possible that different decision-makers may assess the material before them differently. The task for each decision-maker is, relevantly, to determine what she or he is satisfied the reasonably foreseeable future holds for the individual applicant on return to her or his country of nationality, in terms of her or his articulated fear of persecution.
23 Counsel for the appellant submitted that this was not a case where the IAA had dismissed the risk of harm feared by the appellant as "remote or speculative". Rather, it was submitted, the term "speculation" was used by the IAA to avoid making an assessment and a finding about the likelihood of certain events occurring in the future, which was central to its statutory task. It was submitted that the IAA's failure to give proper consideration to this element of the appellant's claim amounted to a constructive failure of the IAA to exercise its jurisdiction: BIL17 v Minister for Immigration and Border Protection [2019] FCAFC 6 at [61]-[64].
24 Counsel for the Minister submitted that the appellant's argument was based on a mischaracterisation of the IAA's reasons. It was submitted that a fear is not well-founded if it is merely assumed or is based on mere speculation and that that was the sense in which the IAA used the word "speculation". The Minister relied on the following observations of the High Court in Minister for Immigration and Ethnic Affairs v Guo Wei Rong (1997) 191 CLR 559 at 572 (Guo) made when discussing the meaning of the phrase "well-founded fear of persecution" and the application of the "real chance" test stated in Chan v Minister for Immigration and Ethnic Affairs (1989) 169 CLR 379:
In the present case, for example, Einfeld J thought that the "real chance" test invited speculation and that the Tribunal had erred because it "has shunned speculation". If, by speculation, his Honour meant making a finding as to whether or not an event might or might not occur in the future, no criticism could be made of his use of the term. But it seems likely, having regard to the context and his Honour's conclusions concerning the Tribunal's reasoning process, that he was using the term in its primary dictionary meaning of conjecture or surmise. If he was, he fell into error. Conjecture or surmise has no part to play in determining whether a fear is well founded. A fear is "well-founded" when there is a real substantial basis for it. As Chan shows, a substantial basis for a fear may exist even though there is far less than a 50 per cent chance that the object of the fear will eventuate. But no fear can be well-founded for the purpose of the Convention unless the evidence indicates a real ground for believing that the applicant for refugee status is at risk of persecution. A fear of persecution is not well-founded if it is merely assumed or if it is mere speculation.
25 It is apparent from the authorities relied on by the appellant and the Minister that, in assessing the risk of harm for the purposes of the refugee and complementary protection criteria, the use of the word "speculation" can be problematic. As observed by the High Court in Guo, the ordinary dictionary meaning of the word "speculation" is conjecture or surmise. Adopting that meaning of the word, the statutory task of assessing a person's application for a protection visa under s 36 of the Act requires more than speculation: the refugee criterion requires the applicant to show a well-founded fear of persecution and the complementary protection criterion requires the applicant to show a real risk of significant harm. Neither are established by speculation, in the ordinary meaning of that word. However, the word speculation is sometimes used in a broader sense to mean predicting future events. That is the sense in which the word was used by the Full Court in CSO15 and AKH16, referred to above. As observed by the High Court in Guo, there is no error in using the word in that sense provided the applicable statutory test is then applied.
26 These different uses of the word "speculation" in this context were also discussed by the High Court in Minister for Immigration and Ethnic Affairs v Wu Shan Liang (1996) 185 CLR 259 at 277:
The use by the delegates of the phrase "I consider it speculative ... to suggest that [the respondents] would be treated more harshly than in the known relevant cases" was taken by the Full Court to indicate that the Chan test miscarried. … The Full Court found that the phrase "seems to suggest that speculation ought not be engaged in". It interpreted "speculation" as used by the delegates to encompass prediction of the future. From this it followed that the Chan test must have miscarried because it is clear that the test in Chan necessitates speculation in the sense of prediction, in other words, an assessment of the future. That is implicit in the formulation "real chance". If the Full Court was right in its characterisation of the delegates' reasons, then that would certainly demonstrate an incorrect approach. However, with respect, the Full Court was in error when it so characterised the delegates' reasons. The word "speculative" in the context in which it appears need not amount to a denial of the delegates' function of assessment of future chances of persecution. Rather, the word might equally have been used to refer to the probative force of the material before the delegate.
27 In the present case, I am satisfied that the IAA used the word "speculation" in its ordinary sense - conjecture or surmise. In the passage relied on by the appellant, the IAA conveyed that the appellant's fear that the Sri Lankan authorities would discover his past LTTE involvement was not well-founded and involved mere speculation. That conclusion followed a thorough discussion of the appellant's claims and the material before the IAA, and was a conclusion open to the IAA on that material. There was no error in the IAA reaching that conclusion. The following matters support that conclusion.
28 First, the IAA correctly summarised the meaning of the phrase "well-founded fear of persecution", referring to the "real chance" test (Reasons [6]).
29 Second, the IAA applied the "real chance" test in considering the appellant's claims. The IAA considered each basis of the appellant's fear, assessing the submissions and material before it, and in respect of each of them concluded that it was not satisfied that the appellant faced a real chance of harm either individually or collectively (Reasons [11], [19], [26], [36] and [38]).
30 It is therefore apparent that the IAA was cognisant of applying the "real chance" test in assessing the appellant's claims. That leads to the question: why, in the context of considering the appellant's claims to fear harm by reason of his previous involvement with the LTTE, did the IAA (at [16] of its reasons) use the word speculation? In my view, the IAA used that language to convey the conclusion that it did not consider that there was any proper basis to believe that the Sri Lankan authorities would in the future discover the appellant's previous involvement with the LTTE. The IAA had found that, despite the appellant having been held in an IDP camp, the Sri Lankan authorities were not aware of the appellant's previous involvement with the LTTE (evidenced by the fact that he had been held and released without facing further scrutiny). In those circumstances, the IAA concluded that there was no basis for a belief that the appellant's previous involvement with the LTTE would be discovered in the future. In context, the use of the word "speculation" was directed to the underlying factual predicate for the claimed fear, conveying a finding that the underlying factual predicate was not well founded and involved mere conjecture.
31 For those reasons, I reject the appellant's submission that the IAA failed to give proper consideration to this element of the appellant's claim which amounted to a constructive failure of the IAA to exercise its jurisdiction. The IAA considered the claim but rejected it on the basis that it involved mere speculation and, accordingly, the fear was not well founded. I therefore dismiss the appeal with costs.
I certify that the preceding thirty-one (31) numbered paragraphs are a true copy of the Reasons for Judgment herein of the Honourable Justice O'Bryan.