Financial security and solvency
56 As submitted in writing by Mr Oakes, it is important to understand the post-scheme solvency position of Gordian because, after the proposed scheme is effected, policyholders will no longer be able to look to GLA for satisfaction of their claims, and must instead look solely to Gordian.
57 The financial security of transferring policyholders is discussed in section 4.3 of the First Atkins Report at pp 20-21. Mr Atkins notes that the first line of financial security is the assets held in an Australian Trust Fund that are available only to meet claims of transferring policyholders and that there are other available sources of financial security should that first line fail. The Australian Trust Fund is initially set at 105% of estimated liabilities, with any increase in liabilities to be accompanied by a corresponding top-up from Cavello Bay to maintain the 105% proportion. Where Cavello Bay is either unwilling or unable to top-up the Australian Trust Fund, Gordian has a legally enforceable right against Cavello Bay.
58 If the reinsurance fails entirely, Mr Atkins states that Gordian's assets are available to meet claims, with those assets being ring-fenced in Australia, and that:
These assets, including available capital of about $75m, are available to support the business currently insured by Gordian, including the CTP business (if the CTP Trust Fund for that business also fails).
59 Noting that it is in accordance with APRA's requirements for recognising acceptable collateral for reinsurance recoveries from overseas insurers, Mr Atkins states that this arrangement is sound, and that there is no likelihood of this financial security being diminished by other claims against Gordian. Moreover, Mr Atkins addresses the possibility of the Enstar Group supporting Cavello Bay and/or Gordian, notwithstanding the absence of any contractual agreements to that effect, because of the reputational damage that would accrue if a significant subsidiary was allowed to become insolvent.
60 On the basis of the above considerations, Mr Atkins assesses the chance of all of the available sources of financial security failing as very remote and that there is no material detriment to the financial security of transferring policyholders.
61 Pro-forma calculations of Gordian's balance sheet and capital adequacy under APRA standards are set out in section 4.4 of the First Atkins Report at pp 21-23.
62 Table 4.2 at p 22 of the First Atkins Report shows the pre-transfer balance sheets of GLA and Gordian at 31 December 2018, together with the estimated post-transfer balance sheet of Gordian on the assumption that the transfer had occurred on that date. As at 31 December 2018:
(a) GLA had total assets of $542.0 million, total liabilities of $464.7 million and net assets of $77.3 million.
(b) Gordian had total assets of $767.8 million, total liabilities of $296.9 million and net assets of $471.0 million.
(c) Post-transfer, Gordian was estimated to have total assets of $996.0 million, total liabilities of $525.1 million and net assets of $471.0 million.
63 Mr Atkins provides the following contextual information for the Gordian figures:
(a) Gordian's net assets include a non-interest bearing loan to the parent company of $401 million, which loan was the method by which past profits were repatriated to the parent company. That amount is not immediately available to meet claims and does not count for APRA capital adequacy.
(b) The pro-forma balance sheet of Gordian after the transfer is very similar to that before the transfer, with the only change being the addition of a large amount of outstanding claims offset by an equal increase in the reinsurance asset. As the 'cash' Gordian receives from the portfolio transfer will be paid to Cavello Bay, and held in the new Australian Trust Fund, there is no change to Gordian's 'cash' balance post-transfer.
64 Table 4.3 at p 23 of the First Atkins Report shows the estimated impact of the transfer on the capital adequacy position of Gordian at 31 December 2018, assuming that the transfer had occurred on that date, and a preliminary estimate of the position at 31 March 2020. I note that the following figures were calculated on the assumption that both the business of GLA and of HSB is transferred to Gordian.
65 Gordian's Prescribed Capital Amount (PCA) pre-transfer was $31.9 million. Its post-transfer PCA was estimated to increase to $44.6 million and then reduce to $31.0 million as at 31 March 2020.
66 Gordian's pre-transfer Capital Adequacy Multiple (CAM) was estimated to reduce from 2.20 to 1.57 following the transfer. However, Mr Atkins observes that substantial claims are projected to be paid out from both Gordian Compulsory Third Party (CTP) and GLA by March 2020, which would reduce the asset risk charge and result in a CAM of 2.27, which is above Gordian's board-approved level. On that basis, Mr Atkins does not assess any capital or solvency issues arising from the transfer.
67 Pages 5-7 of the Second Atkins Report contain updated financial information relating to Gordian's balance sheet and capital adequacy position.
68 Table A.3 on p 6 summarises the reported assets and liabilities of Gordian at 31 December 2018, 31 December 2019 and 31 March 2020, as follows:
(a) Gordian had total assets of $767.8 million as at 31 December 2018, $685.2 million as at 31 December 2019 and $686.3 million as at 31 March 2020.
(b) Gordian had total liabilities of $296.9 million as at 31 December 2018, $207.3 million as at 31 December 2019 and $204.5 million as at 31 March 2020.
(c) Gordian had net assets of $471.0 million as at 31 December 2018, $477.9 million as at 31 December 2019 and $481.8 million as at 31 March 2020.
Therefore, as at 31 March 2020, Gordian's net assets increased by $10.8 million from December 2018. Mr Atkins also notes that Gordian's claims liabilities and reinsurance assets have each reduced as the NSW CTP business (100% reinsured) has run off.
69 Table A.4 on p 6 shows details of Gordian's PCA, which was $31.9 million as at 31 December 2018, $25.8 million as at 31 December 2019 and $25.8 million as at 31 March 2020. Mr Atkins observes that Gordian's PCA had reduced from 31 December 2018 due to the reduction in reinsurance assets.
70 Table A.5 on p 7 contains Gordian's APRA Capital Base figures, calculated by reference to the net asset figures stated above at [68], which was compared with the PCA figures in [69] above to determine the applicable CAM figures, as follows:
(a) Gordian's APRA Capital base was $70.2 million as at 31 December 2018, $79.6 million as at 31 December 2019 and $84.6 million as at 31 March 2020.
(b) Gordian's CAM was 2.20 as at 31 December 2018, 3.08 as at 31 December 2019 and 3.29 as at 31 March 2020.
Mr Atkins states that the CAM increased from 31 December 2018 due to the reduction in PCA, which improvement was expected because of the run off of the NSW CTP business.
71 Pages 9-10 of the Second Atkins Report contain updated financial information relating to GLA's balance sheet and capital adequacy position.
72 Table A.10 on p 9 summarises the reported assets and liabilities of GLA at 31 December 2018, 31 December 2019 and 31 March 2020, as follows:
(a) GLA had total assets of $542.0 million as at 31 December 2018, $485.2 million as at 31 December 2019 and $477.5 million as at 31 March 2020.
(b) GLA had total liabilities of $464.7 million as at 31 December 2018, $430.9 million as at 31 December 2019 and $423.0 million as at 31 March 2020.
(c) GLA had net assets of $77.3 million as at 31 December 2018, $54.3 million as at 31 December 2019 and $54.5 million as at 31 March 2020.
73 Table A.11 on p 10 shows details of GLA's PCA, which was $18.0 million as at 31 December 2018, $10.5 million as at 31 December 2019 and $10.5 million as at 31 March 2020.
74 Table A.12 on p 10 contains GLA's APRA Capital Base figures, calculated by reference to the net asset figures stated above at [72], which was compared with the PCA figures in [73] above to determine the applicable CAM figures, as follows:
(a) GLA's APRA Capital base was $75.2 million as at 31 December 2018, $52.1 million as at 31 December 2019 and $52.3 million as at 31 March 2020.
(b) GLA's CAM was 4.19 as at 31 December 2018, 4.94 as at 31 December 2019 and 4.97 as at 31 March 2020.
75 Pages 13-15 of the Second Atkins Report contain updated estimates of the post-transfer balance sheets and capital adequacy figures of Gordian and GLA at 30 June 2020.
76 Table A.18 on p 13 includes figures as to Gordian's estimated post-transfer balance sheet as at 31 March 2020 and its forecasted post-transfer balance sheet at 30 June 2020, as follows:
(a) As at 31 March 2020, post-transfer, Gordian was estimated to have $839.5 million in total assets, $357.7 million in total liabilities and $481.8 million in net assets.
(b) At 30 June 2020, post-transfer, Gordian was forecast to have $814.6 million in total assets, $332.9 million in total liabilities and $481.8 million in net assets.
77 Table A.19 on p 14 includes figures as to Gordian's estimated post-transfer capital adequacy position as at 31 March 2020 and its forecasted post-transfer capital adequacy position at 30 June 2020, as follows:
(a) As at 31 March 2020, post-transfer, Gordian was estimated to have a PCA of $35.7 million, an APRA Capital Base of $84.6 million and a corresponding CAM of 2.37.
(b) At 30 June 2020, post-transfer, Gordian was forecast to have a PCA of $34.1 million, an APRA Capital Base of $84.6 million and a corresponding CAM of 2.48.
Mr Atkins notes that the forecast CAM for Gordian of 2.48 is comfortably above the board-approved level.
78 Table A.20 on p 14 includes figures extracted from Gordian's 2020-2022 Run-Off Plan projections and shows the forecasted CAM over the next three years, albeit without factoring the impact of any future capital transfers that may be proposed, as follows:
(a) In December 2020, Gordian is forecast to have a PCA of $27.3 million, an APRA Capital Base of $81.6 million and a corresponding CAM of 2.98.
(b) In December 2021, Gordian is forecast to have a PCA of $22.3 million, an APRA Capital Base of $83.3 million and a corresponding CAM of 3.74.
(c) In December 2022, Gordian is forecast to have a PCA of $18.6 million, an APRA Capital Base of $85.4 million and a corresponding CAM of 4.58.
79 Table A.21 on p 15 includes figures as to GLA's estimated post-transfer balance sheet as at 31 March 2020. As at 31 March 2020, post-transfer, GLA was estimated to have $284.5 million in total assets, $230.0 million in total liabilities and $54.5 million in net assets.
80 Table A.22 on p 15 includes figures as to GLA's estimated post-transfer capital adequacy position as at 31 March 2020. As at 31 March 2020, post-transfer, GLA was estimated to have a PCA of $6.7 million, an APRA Capital Base of $52.3 million and a corresponding CAM of 7.86.
81 On the basis of this financial information, Mr Atkins makes and affirms the following conclusions in section 5.4 of the First Atkins Report at p 25:
The policyholders transferring to Gordian will be protected by the reinsurance agreement with Cavello Bay and the Australian Trust Fund …
Policyholders remaining with GLA will have no material change arising from the Schemes.
…
While the existing policyholders of Gordian are not technically 'affected policyholders' it is customary to the interests of this group:
• The CTP policyholders that transferred to Gordian in 2018 are not impacted since they are supported by a separate reinsurance agreement with Cavello Bay and a separate trust fund.
• Other existing policyholders of Gordian should not be impacted by the Schemes as the transferring liabilities are fully covered by the reinsurance with Cavello Bay and the Australian Trust Fund. No claim payments for transferring business will be made from Gordian funds except in the most extreme circumstances where both the Australian Trust Fund and Cavello Bay have failed.
The longevity of the Enstar group's Australian business will be improved as Gordian continues to acquire more run-off business.
82 The findings with respect to GLA and Gordian contained in both the First Atkins Report and the Second Atkins Report are consistent with the independently prepared analysis contained in the First Stephan Report and the Second Stephan Report.
83 The conclusion on these matters in the First Stephan Report is found in section 2.1 at p 12. There, Mr Stephan states his opinion that the financial security provided to transferring policyholders will not be materially reduced after the proposed transfer, and that no adverse deterioration in the capital position or solvency of Gordian arising from the proposed transfer is expected.
84 Those views are substantiated in section 2.2 of the First Stephan Report at pp 12-16. GLA is described as having a strong pre-transfer CAM of 4.19, although its ongoing financial stability is characterised as being somewhat dependent on its relationship with the Munich Re group. The description of the projected financial security provided to transferring policyholders after the proposed transfer at pp 13-15 of the First Stephan Report is consistent with the corresponding findings in the First Atkins Report. In particular, the following is stated at p 15:
In terms of capital domiciled in Australia and regulated by APRA, the policyholders are supported by the Trust Fund surplus and the APRA Capital Base of Gordian, giving a CAM of 2.35…
In the absence of any contrary indications, I have assumed that Cavello Bay will continue to provide capital support equivalent to the shareholder equity as at 31 December 2018. In the past Enstar has injected capital in order to support a scheme of transfer, which is evidence to support the assertion that it will provide capital support in the future, even though it has no legal requirement to do so.
Gordian's Board-approved CAM is a minimum of 2.2, and based on Gordian's projected balance sheet for 2018 to 2020 (projected from Gordian's financial position at September 2018), this will not require any additional capital injections. While I have not examined any projections of Cavello Bay's and the Enstar Group's solvency over three years, in my view it is likely that the significant shareholder equity provides substantial capital support on an ongoing basis.
Consequently, I have concluded that over a three-year horizon, the transferring policyholders will continue to be supported by significant capital resources post Transfer.
85 Table 2.3 on p 15 of the First Stephan Report indicates that Gordian's pre-transfer and post-transfer CAM was 2.20 and 2.27 respectively. In view of Gordian's stated aim of managing its CAM to 2.20 or higher, Mr Stephan states the proposed transfer is not projected to impact Gordian's projected solvency adversely.
86 At p 3 of the Second Stephan Report, Mr Stephan states that his opinion remains unchanged from the First Stephan Report and that, upon reviewing the available updated information, his view is that the financial security provided to transferring policyholders will not be materially reduced and that no adverse deterioration in the capital position or solvency of Gordian arising from the proposed transfer is expected.
87 Those opinions are supported by the updated financial information regarding Gordian's and GLA's APRA solvency coverage.
88 In Table 1 on p 3 of the Second Stephan Report, Gordian's pre-transfer CAM as at 31 March 2020 and post-transfer CAM as at 30 June 2020 is set out as 3.29 and 2.48 respectively. On these updated figures, Mr Stephan states that the proposed transfer is not projected to impact Gordian's projected solvency adversely, again in view of Gordian's stated aim of managing its CAM to a minimum of 2.20. Further, at pp 3-4 of the Second Stephan Report, the following is expressed in relation to Gordian's forecast CAM of 2.48 as at 30 June 2020:
The forecast CAM of 2.48 as at 30 June 2020, derived by Gordian's Appointed Actuary, is consistent with Gordian's stated aim of having a CAM of 2.20 or higher. The key assumptions behind the projected CAM of 2.48 are that:
• there is no change in Gordian's net adjusted assets
• the asset mix backing the transferring portfolio is the same as in Gordian's existing CTP Trust Fund
The assumption of no change in net adjusted assets is due to the transferring portfolio being 100% reinsured by Cavello Bay and Gordian's intent to book the transfer price as the carrying value of the transferring portfolios gross of reinsurance in Gordian accounts post-transfer. An actuarial valuation of the transferring liabilities will be conducted post-transfer, at which stage there might be a change to the gross carrying value in Gordian's accounts, however the 100% reinsurance means that the impact on the security available to Gordian policyholders will be immaterial (being a 4% asset risk charge on the change in reinsurance recoverable assets). Therefore, I believe the forecast CAM of 2.48 to be a reasonable estimate.
89 In Table 2 on p 4 of the Second Stephan Report, GLA's pre-transfer CAM as at 31 March 2020 and post-transfer CAM as at 31 March 2020 is set out as 4.97 and 7.86 respectively. At p 5 of the Second Stephan Report, Mr Stephan notes that favourable claim settlements since 31 March 2020 may result in a CAM at 30 June 2020 for GLA that is even higher than the 7.86 forecast in Table 2.