145 The evidence, in my opinion, plainly establishes that, in the event that Dr Ellis and Ms Howell at a future point in time are in a position to have monitored and assessed the effect on the defendant of both medical (psychiatric) and psychological treatment as having adequately addressed the factors subjacent to the defendant's personality disorder, then the treatment regime, together with what I have referred to as the first and second lines or barriers of defence, may well be seen to be adequate to bring the risk or likelihood of re-offending down to a level that would enable supervision under an extended supervision order to be considered "adequate supervision".
146 The position that presently operates, on the evidence, is that, whilst treatment by medication is, as I have earlier stated, fundamental to the proposed plan, it has not, by reason of a series of circumstances, been trialled for a sufficiently long period of time to enable Dr Ellis to determine what effect it will have upon the defendant, and whether there is a need for an adjustment or change in medical treatment. Similarly, Ms Howell has only recently commenced treatment and has not as yet had the opportunity of developing treatment to a level whereby she is in a position to assess the nature and extent of any beneficial effects which she considers likely to result form such treatment.
147 In written and oral submissions, it was contended on behalf of the defendant that, in all the circumstances, adequate supervision is available upon the release of the defendant. In his written submissions, Mr Dalton SC, for the defendant, addressed the issues concerning the management of the defendant's level of risk (paragraphs 22 to 25). He submitted that "adequate supervision" should be interpreted as adequate available supervision to reduce the risk below a high degree of probability of likelihood to re-offend. I have earlier indicated that adequate supervision, in my opinion, must be such that in the case of a high risk serious sex offender, an extended supervision order is required to be such that it would no longer be "likely" (as interpreted by McClellan CJ at CL in Winters (supra)) that the defendant would commit a further serious sex offence. Mr Dalton relied upon the evidence of Dr Allnutt, Dr O'Dea and Mr Rendell as well as Dr Ellis in contending that "the overwhelming balance of the evidence is that the proposed management plan for a period of five years is adequate to appropriately manage his level of risk in the context of s.17(3) …" (paragraph 22(a) of the defendant's written submission).
148 Mr Dalton also emphasised the support, which the defendant's family would provide and the fact that the defendant had no history of breach of parole orders or extended supervision orders.
149 Whilst Dr Ellis, Mr Rendell and Ms Howell have given evidence, as set out earlier in this judgment (see paragraphs [91], [92], [95] and [111]) that they consider the proposed plan to be adequate to manage the defendant in the community, it would be wrong to treat the answers they gave as to the adequacy of the proposed program divorced or separated from their underlying analyses and diagnoses made of paraphilia and personality disorder, or of the need for specific medical and psychological treatment to be implemented and taken to a stage that will provide the defendant with the necessary capacity and coping skills. The evidence is that it will take some time before the effects of the medication are capable of being assessed and reviewed and, as necessary, modified or adjusted to produce the necessary outcome of reducing the assessed likelihood of the defendant committing a further serious sex offence.
150 Dr Ellis' evidence was to the effect that he has not yet been able to make such an assessment and, as stated above, Ms Howell has only recently embarked upon a treatment program. It will require time for her to exercise her professional expertise in order to develop those matters considered necessary for the defendant to develop the required self-regulation.
151 The difficult matter of risk prediction, emphasised by the expert witnesses, is one that requires an assessment of all the evidence, taking into account the practical operation of an extended supervision order having regard to the particular offender. That practical approach must require some regard to the fact that, although the defendant has not displayed sexually deviant behaviour whilst in prison, the more stimulating environment of the general community for the defendant, who presently lacks the capacity for self-regulation, if released, is a factor to be brought into account in the assessment to be made under s.17(3).