Ground 3: award of a buffer for economic loss
33The calculation of economic loss, whether in the past or for the future, involves a comparison between the actual circumstances of the claimant, as a result of the accident, and the circumstances which would probably have continued or come to pass but for the accident. On the assumption that the accident has resulted in a loss of earning capacity, the Court must also consider whether such a loss might have occurred independently of the accident.
34That, in broad terms, is the exercise which must be undertaken in each case: Pollard v Baulderstone Hornibrook Engineering Pty Ltd [2008] NSWCA 99; 172 IR 453 at [84] (McColl JA, Mason P and Beazley JA agreeing). At least parts of that exercise are now identified in s 126 of the Compensation Act, as explained in Nominal Defendant v Livaja [2011] NSWCA 121 at [39]-[40].
35The conventional approach to such an exercise is to assess the earning capacity of the claimant in monetary terms prior to the accident (usually on the basis of net weekly or annual earnings) and, where there is evidence of unemployment or employment at a reduced income thereafter, to assess the quantum of the difference up to the date of hearing (past economic loss) and to project the calculation into the future (future economic loss). The latter exercise will, again conventionally, be discounted by 15% on account of vicissitudes.
36Such calculations produce precise figures, often resulting in awards expressed in dollars and cents. However, such precision is fallacious. Varying degrees of uncertainty will attend the hypothetical aspects of the calculation, rendering any degree of precision misleading.
37Additionally, with respect to future economic loss, the exercise requires a discounting of the calculation in order to achieve a present monetary value for the assessed loss which, it is assumed, will accrue steadily over the remaining working life of the claimant.
38Under the general law, it has long been accepted that, at least in some cases, the assessment will involve such a degree of speculation as to render a calculation by the conventional techniques inappropriate. In those cases, a lump sum is awarded by way of "buffer", the court being satisfied on the probabilities that a loss will be suffered or, indeed, has been suffered.
39One of the contingencies which may not be readily assessable, thus supporting the lump sum approach, may be the question of vicissitudes. The greater the difficulty in identifying the claimant's most likely future circumstances but for the accident, the greater the difficulty in assessing the uncertainty as to whether or not those circumstances would have arisen in any event, and if so when and for how long they might subsist. Awarding a lump sum will usually incorporate the element of vicissitudes into the global assessment.
40Under s 126 of the Compensation Act, the court is required to be satisfied that any assumptions about future earning capacity "or other events" accord with the claimant's most likely future circumstances but for the injury. Any award is to be discounted by the "percentage possibility that the events concerned might have occurred but for the injury". On one view, s 126 could be read as inconsistent with the award of a buffer for future economic loss. Such an approach would force a court, satisfied on the probabilities that there has been such a loss, to make an arithmetical calculation suggesting a degree of precision which was not warranted by the circumstances. As explained in Allianz v Kerr at [30], that approach has been rejected in a consistent line of authority in this Court, which was not challenged in the present case.
41Part of the appellant's argument, revisiting a point raised in Allianz v Kerr, was that buffers were inherently unsatisfactory because they failed to reveal the true basis on which the figure was reached. In so far as the complaint is addressed to the use of a buffer as such, as opposed to the adequacy of the reasons given by the assessor, it is misconceived in two respects. First, the failure to adopt an arithmetical calculation does not mean that the assessor was excused from identifying the circumstances he was satisfied would most likely have occurred but for the injury. Nor was he excused from identifying, in broad terms, the limits on the earning capacity resulting from the injury. To that extent, there was transparency. Secondly, there was a misconception as to the value of "transparency" in relation to a speculative exercise. As already noted, if a precise calculation were to be mandated it could no doubt be undertaken. In each case the result will be precise, being a monetary figure; in one case there will be a false impression as to accuracy, whereas in the other inaccuracy will, with justification, be conceded.
42The appellant accepted that the statute permitted what it described as a "compliant buffer". However, it was unable to articulate the principles which distinguished a compliant from a non-compliant buffer. The point appears to have been that where the assessor could reasonably have been expected to make an arithmetical calculation in the conventional sense, there would be an error in point of law in failing to undertake that task. However, that approach merely relocates the error of law to a different stage in the process. It must be an essentially evaluative judgment to determine whether in a particular case one approach is preferable to another, if both are available. It is then a matter for the appellant to establish that the course taken by the assessor in the present case was not reasonably open to him. Why that should be so, given the inherent uncertainties in the exercise being undertaken, was not made clear. The underlying premise appeared to be that a precise calculation was demanded in circumstances where the buffer for future economic loss was as large as $400,000.
43The actual monetary value of the award may in some circumstances be indicative of error. Whether that is so will depend upon the circumstances of the particular case. As the respondent noted, without contradiction, the award in the present case could have been reached by calculating a loss of earning capacity of $740 net per week. If that were in fact the full extent of the claimant's earning capacity (as it might be for some claimants), error might well be demonstrated; an immediate and total loss of the earning capacity of the claimant should be stated and the amount would very likely be calculable in the conventional manner. That, however, was not this case. The claimant was in fact, at the date of the assessment, earning approximately $2,500 net per week. The indicative calculation undertaken by the respondent indicated a loss of earning capacity of approximately 23% or perhaps a little higher once vicissitudes were factored in.
44Contrary to the submissions for the appellant, the justification for such an exercise is not to demonstrate that the assessor could have reached the same figure by a different course which he did not in fact adopt, but rather to demonstrate that the size of the buffer did not of itself demonstrate some unrevealed error.
45Quite separately, the calculation had a different and additional purpose: conceding that the circumstances were appropriate for awarding a buffer, the relationship of the buffer to the actual earnings and likely diminution in earning capacity demonstrated that the outcome was not manifestly unreasonable.
46Finally, that which the appellant sought to characterise as arbitrary and capricious, could also be characterised, in the circumstances, as impressionistic or evaluative. The nature of the exercise may not be such as to warrant the pejorative epithets which derive from the judgment of Latham CJ in The King v Connell; Ex parte The Hetton Bellbird Collieries Ltd [1944] HCA 42; 69 CLR 407 at 430 and 432, cited by Gummow J in Minister for Immigration and Multicultural Affairs v Eshetu [1999] HCA 21; 197 CLR 611 at [133]. Where a binary choice is made between alternative outcomes, a different characterisation of a decision-making process may be available than in respect of the selection of a particular point within a range or spectrum of potentially available outcomes. Nor, as explained in Allianz v Kerr, can any precise explanation be given which will helpfully determine where across the range the line has been drawn: at [7]-[8] and [59].
47The outcome in Allianz v Kerr does not determine the outcome in the present case: although the appellant suggested otherwise, the adequacy of reasons and compliance with s 126 must be assessed on a case-by-case basis.
48It is not necessary to decide whether, as a matter of law, an upper limit can be placed on the amount of an award of future economic loss by way of a "buffer". Certainly the analysis of principle in the present case did not suggest whether or how that exercise might be undertaken. Any such exercise would have to take into account the large differences in earning capacity which exist amongst individuals. In Allianz v Kerr, the claimant was a nursing assistant who undoubtedly had a far lower earning capacity than the claimant in the present case, who was a general physician with a speciality in renal disease. The exercise would also need to take into account the cap on damages for economic loss which, at the time of the assessment, was a little under $4,000 per week net: Compensation Act, s 125, the figure having been adjusted pursuant to s 146, allowing for changes in average weekly earnings.