Wang v Minister for Immigration & Multiculutral Affairs

"Real chance" test 11 Counsel argued that the RRT erred by requiring that there be a "much stricter test" than that of a "real chance" of persecution. The RRT, it was said, did not apply the test expounded by the High Court in Chan Yee Kin v Minister for Immigration and Ethnic Affairs (1989) 169 CLR 379. Counsel argued that the RRT did not address the actual circumstances of the applicant but rather the social and political affairs of the country in question. Reports of conditions in PRC generally were given "far greater credence". Also the RRT did not make sufficient allowance for the possibility of a change in the policy of the country. 12 I do not accept this argument. The RRT correctly enunciated the law as contained in the High Court authorities and applied that law to the facts it found. Plainly in the course of its fact finding the RRT was entitled to have regard to reports about political and social conditions in the country in question. But it is simply not correct to say that the RRT did not have regard to the actual circumstances of the applicant. It considered the account she gave of her life in the PRC, accepted some parts and rejected others, and gave rational reasons for so doing. It did not use the term "balance of probabilities" and none of its reasoning suggests that it was deciding the issue of well-founded fear of persecution for a Convention reason on the balance of probabilities.

Cumulative effect 13 Counsel argued that the RRT erred in that it failed to assess the application with regard to the cumulative effect of the experiences of the applicant in the PRC. In the circumstances of the present case however there is little logic in erecting a separate criterion of cumulativeness which the RRT is required to satisfy. The applicant's Convention claims in themselves were quite discrete and called for individual treatment. Thus the hardships suffered by the applicant's family in the Cultural Revolution and her involvement in the 1989 demonstrations were accepted as genuine but in each case the RRT was satisfied that the subsequent history of the PRC led to a conclusion that these past events were unlikely to have any practical adverse consequences for the applicant. On the other hand, her claims based on religion and the one child policy were found to be fabricated. In the latter case, there was also the legal answer that in the light of Applicant A's case there could be no persecution on a Convention ground in any event. Thus different claims were dealt with in different ways.

Future events 14 Counsel argued that the RRT erred by referring only to past events. It did not have regard to the future behaviour of the PRC authorities in relation to the past actions and experience of the applicant. It did not address the possibility that "a spark may ignite". 15 The way the RRT should use past events as a guide to the future was discussed by the High Court in Minister for Immigration and Ethnic Affairs v Guo (1997) 191 CLR 559 at 574 as follows: "In determining whether there was a real chance that Mr Guo would be persecuted for a Convention reason, the Tribunal had no choice but to form an opinion as to what was likely to occur if Mr Guo was returned to the PRC. In the course of determining whether there was a real chance of persecution for such a reason, the Tribunal made findings about past events and the motivation of the Chinese authorities in penalising Mr Guo, as it was entitled and, indeed, bound to do (s 166E(1) of the Act). It then used those findings as the basis for its conclusion that there was no chance of future persecution. But that does not mean that it decided the well-founded fear of persecution issue on the balance of probabilities. The course of the future is not predictable, but the degree of probability that an event will occur is often, perhaps usually, assessable. Past events are not a certain guide to the future, but in many areas of life proof that events have occurred often provides a reliable basis for determining the probability - high or low - of their recurrence. The extent to which past events are a guide to the future depends on the degree of probability that they have occurred, the regularity with which and the conditions under which they have or probably have occurred and the likelihood that the introduction of new or other events may distort the cycle of regularity. In many cases, when the past has been evaluated, the probability that an event will occur may border on certainty. In other cases, the probability that an event will occur may be so low that, for practical purposes, it can be safely disregarded. In between these extremes, there are varying degrees of probability as to whether an event will or will not occur. But unless a person or tribunal attempts to determine what is likely to occur in the future in relation to a relevant field of inquiry, that person or tribunal has no rational basis for determining the chance of an event in that field occurring in the future." 16 In my opinion the RRT's approach was consistent with the law in the passage just cited. The RRT said (at 13) that the applicant "… has never been persecuted on account of any Convention reason and she was mildly punished after the 1989 demonstrations but had not been further harassed for Convention reasons. The Tribunal concludes that she was not motivated to leave the country for any of the Convention reasons. Even if it is wrong in that respect, the available information leads to a conclusion that any fears of persecution for Convention reasons she harboured at the time she left were not well-founded, as there was not a real chance they might be realised. Nor has there been any change in circumstances since that time to found a conclusion that her chances of being persecuted in the foreseeable future have increased."

Too narrow a reading of "persecution" 17 Counsel contended that the RRT gave too narrow and restrictive meaning to "persecution" with regard to the actions that the PRC authorities would be likely to take if the applicant were returned to China. Counsel advanced this argument in attacking the RRT's finding that punishment of the applicant for obtaining false documents, if it occurred, would not be persecution for any Convention reason. Suffice it to say that the RRT's conclusion in this regard was plainly correct.

Failure to consider applicant's position at time of decision 18 Counsel argued that the RRT wrongly applied the law at the time when the applicant was still in PRC rather than at the time of its decision. I can only say that a fair reading of the RRT's decision is that it did, as it was required to do, assess whether the fears asserted by the applicant were well-founded with regard to what might happen in the event of her being returned to PRC.

Low profile 19 Counsel argued that the RRT erred in finding or assuming that the applicant did not face a real chance of persecution for a Convention reason because her profile as an activist was not high. It was said that the RRT "talked down" the prospects of persecution of some low profile persons who had actually suffered. This was however simply a question of fact.

Orders 20 The application will be dismissed with costs, including reserved costs. I certify that the preceding twenty (20) numbered paragraphs are a true copy of the Reasons for Judgment herein of the Honourable Justice Heerey.

Solicitor for the Respondent: Australian Government Solicitor