[35] I am not familiar with the anticipated lay evidence to be called by the parties or the factual assumptions which hydrologists will be asked to make in formulating expert opinions. I should note that I have not read any reports of the Commission of Inquiry into the Grantham floods. Any such findings do not bind the tribunal of fact in this case. In any event, I have only a general recollection of some media coverage that occurred when the Commission of Inquiry into the Grantham floods released its report.
[36] If the parties wish, I will read a précis of evidence of anticipated lay witnesses to better understand the anticipated state of the evidence from lay witnesses in this case about the nature and timing of the breach of the embankment. Presently I proceed on the basis of the pleadings. As noted, the defendants propose to prove that the embankment suffered a rapid breach in around two to four places along its length at or about 4.00 pm, releasing a torrent of water downstream.
[37] In reply, the plaintiffs plead that the true facts are that the breach of the embankment did not lead to a surge in the floodwaters, and in consequence the loss of lives because:
- The collapse or failure of the quarry embankment resulted in water filling a quarry pit situated next to the quarry embankment;
- The quarry pit absorbed floodwater and in fact operated to delay the flood;
- The water that engulfed the town of Grantham on 10 January 2011 would have occurred regardless of the existence of the quarry or the quarry embankment by reason of the sheer magnitude of the water which fell on that day;
- The collapse or breach or erosion of the quarry embankment did not cause or materially contribute to the flooding of Grantham; and
- The existence of the quarry embankment did not have a material impact on the damage caused by the flooding at Grantham and did not cause the loss of lives.
[38] The plaintiffs' further amended reply filed 21 March 2017 does not particularise whether the breach in the quarry embankment occurred at or about 4.00 pm, or whether the breach was a rapid one in around two to four places along its length. However, I apprehend from the assumptions which the plaintiffs propose for the purpose of expert opinion that different scenarios are contemplated including:
- Early/Slow Breach - the breach started shortly after commencement of overtopping and the embankment took about 15 to 20 minutes to erode;
- Late/Slow Breach - the breach started slightly later in the flood and eroded completely within 1 minute.
[39] If, as I apprehended, the parties do not agree about the nature and timing of the breach or breaches in the embankment, then it will be necessary for the relevant experts to give opinions based upon different scenarios. Subject to further submissions and assistance about what the evidence is expected to be concerning the process and timing of breach, it seems appropriate that the experts address the matter on the basis of different scenarios.
[40] Ideally, experts would express their final opinions after the relevant lay evidence is given at trial, and it may prove necessary for the experts to revise any opinion given in a report in the light of evidence which emerges at the trial. However, it will assist pre-trial preparation and the resolution of the matter if experts consider issues which are the proper subject for their expert opinion on the basis of either agreed facts (to the extent the facts can be agreed by the parties) or on the basis of different factual scenarios.