4.1 Ground 1: the "real chance" test
18 By the first ground of appeal, the appellant alleges that:
The Federal Circuit Court erred by failing to find that the Tribunal Member made a legal mistake in making the finding that the Tribunal has addressed and made appropriate findings on my involvement with the Maoists. It is contended that the Tribunal Member failed to properly apply the real chance test in my circumstances.
19 In this regard, the Tribunal was required in conducting its review to consider whether the appellant is "… a non-citizen in Australia in respect of whom the [Tribunal] is satisfied Australia has protection obligations under the Refugees Convention as amended by the Refugees Protocol" (ss 36(2)(a) and 415 of the Act). This requires, subject to various qualifications in the Act, that the Tribunal be satisfied that an applicant is a refugee as defined in Article 1A(2) of the 1951 Convention Relating to the Status of Refugees as amended by the 1967 Protocol Relating to the Status of Refugees (the Refugee Convention), namely, a person who (relevantly):
owing to a well-founded fear of being persecuted for reasons of race, religion, nationality, membership of a particular social group or political opinion, is outside the country of his [or her] nationality and is unable or, owing to such fear, is unwilling to avail himself [or herself] of the protection of that country…
(Emphasis added.)
20 If so satisfied, the Tribunal must grant the visa under s 65 of the Act.
21 The question raised by ground 1 of the appeal is whether the Tribunal was required, but failed, to assess whether there was a "well-founded fear" of persecution by reason of her imputed and actual political opinions. A determination of whether a (subjective) fear is (objectively) "well-founded" requires the Tribunal to assess what will occur in the future. A fear is "well-founded" when there is "a real substantial basis for it", even where the chance of the object of the fear eventuating is less than 50 per cent, but is not well founded if it is merely assumed or speculative: Minister for Immigration and Ethnic Affairs v Guo [1997] HCA 22; (1997) 191 CLR 559 (Guo) at 572 (Brennan CJ, Dawson, Toohey, Gaudron, McHugh and Gummow JJ). While the description should not be used in substitution for the terms of the Refugee Convention, this is commonly described as the "real chance" test. If the Tribunal failed properly to apply this test, the error would be jurisdictional in nature as it would constitute a failure to determine the appellant's claims in accordance with the statutory criteria.
22 However, the ground of appeal does not identify the respect in which it is alleged that the Tribunal misapplied the "real chance" test. Nor was this a ground raised below or developed by any submissions in this Court. I am unable in any event to discern any error in the Tribunal's explanation of the "real chance" test at [14] of its reasons, nor in its application of the test to the appellant's claims.
23 As to the latter I note that in determining whether there is a real chance of persecution in the future, the Tribunal may have to take into account the probability of error in its findings. Thus in Guo at 576, the joint judgment contrasted:
(1) a scenario where the Tribunal finds that it is only slightly more probable than not that an applicant has not been persecuted in the past for a Convention reason in determining whether there is a well-founded fear of future persecution; and
(2) a scenario where the Tribunal had no real doubt that its findings as to the past and the future were correct.
24 In the former case, the joint judgment considered that the Tribunal must take into account the chance that the applicant was so persecuted when determining whether there is a well-founded fear of future persecution, while in the latter case the Tribunal is not so bound given its apparent confidence in its conclusions: see also Minister for Immigration and Multicultural Affairs v Rajalingam [1999] FCA 719; (1999) 93 FCR 220 (Sackville J at 240 [62] (North J agreeing)).
25 Here, subject to one caveat, I accept the Minister's submission that the Tribunal expressed its findings with such confidence that there was no need for the Tribunal to go further and consider whether there is a well-founded fear of future persecution in the alternative on the assumption that those findings may be wrong. The caveat arises from the Tribunal's reasons at [43] where the Tribunal was considering the appellant's claim that she would be harmed if she declines Maoist membership if returned. With respect to that claim, the Tribunal found that:
On the basis of this information [being country information referred to at [40]-[41] of the Tribunal's reasons] the Tribunal finds that there is no real chance the applicant will face serious harm were she to return to Nepal in the reasonable [sic] foreseeable future at the hands of the Maoists as she was formerly associated and will refuse their membership or to be associated with them in the future. In making this finding the Tribunal has considered her response but finds the information outlined above to be more persuasive. As the Maoists are in government and in charge of the authorities it follows that the Tribunal finds that there is no real chance she will face serious harm from the government or the authorities for the same reasons were she [sic] return to Nepal in the reasonably foreseeable future.
(Emphasis added.)
26 I raised with the Minister's counsel at the hearing the question of whether the finding that the information referred to was "more persuasive" was a finding expressed with sufficient confidence so as to relieve the Tribunal of the requirement to consider the position on the alternative assumption that it was wrong. However, I accept the Minister's submission that, read in context, the finding was a part only of the Tribunal's reasons for finding that there is no real chance she will suffer serious harm if returned - a finding about which the Tribunal ultimately had no apparent doubt. Importantly, in this regard, the appellant's response to the country information in question which the Tribunal found was "more persuasive" had been to repeat her claims that she was never released by the Maoists and would be harmed on her return for not joining them. However, the Tribunal had for reasons given earlier in its decision rejected her claim to fear persecution from Maoists because she was forcibly held by them and monitored until September 2010 and had escaped without permission, finding that her evidence to this effect was not credible (at [38]-[39]).