40 The primary position put by Mr T McDonald for the Employers' Federation and adopted by Mr D Ritchie for the Retailers' Association was that any increase in wages not tied to productivity improvements was opposed. In this regard the two organisations relied on the evidence of Mr Richardson. In particular, the Employers' Federation and the Retailers' Association referred to the following parts of Mr Richardson's evidence:
(a) The known economic news had darkened since the AIRC's Safety Net Review - Wages decision, including rises to interest rates, and reductions in retail turnover, car sales and building approvals.
(b) Prospects for New South Wales in the next few years lag behind those of the nation as a whole. The conjunction of factors which pushed up growth in recent years have now largely run their course, and New South Wales is at risk of a post-Olympics downturn. Economic growth through 2001 is likely to be much lower in NSW than in Australia as a whole.
(c) In discussing the link between wages and jobs, it was indicated that a wage rise borne by an employer:
(i) reduces profits and the incentive to invest;
(ii) prices the employer's firm or industry out of some work and raises the incentive for employers to use relatively fewer workers and more machines (with both factors negative for jobs);
(iii) if the wage rise is a general one across the economy, adds to inflation by raising wage pressures, and so also adds to interest rates, thereby slowing overall economic growth. The latter channel (as does the profit channel noted above) acts particularly to slow investment. The fall in investment demand eventually overwhelms the increase in consumer demand, leaving the overall national economic cake smaller.
(d) A wage rise does not add to inflation or to employers' costs if it is supported by a rise in productivity. If it is not, the net impact is that a wage rise:
(i) makes most workers better off (though they may be affected via higher prices and interest rates), but
(ii) some workers will lose their jobs (either directly by pricing their firm or industry out of work or, where the wage rise is a general one across the economy, indirectly as higher interest rates slow the economy more generally).
(e) Theory suggests sustainable wage rises are based on productivity improvements, and that there is a clear trade-off between wage rises and job gains. The trade-off is sharper when conditions are worsening, so slower demand in NSW in 2001 would accentuate the job cost of any non-productivity based wage rises. The implication of the economic slowdown now underway (in Australia in general, and NSW in particular) was therefore that there is greater reason for NSW to reconsider the quantum of the safety net wage rise granted by the AIRC on 1 May.
(f) Modelling conducted by Access Economics suggests sustainable benefits accrue to the economy from wage rises supported by productivity gains. Wage rises unsupported by productivity gains lead to higher unemployment in the long term. Improvements in work practices produce lasting benefits in the form of higher employment, increased business investment, lower foreign debt and sustainable improvements in real wages.
41 Notwithstanding their primary position, the Employers' Federation and the Retailers' Association proposed, if the Commission were to reject that approach, an alternative position which involved the adoption of the AIRC's decision with modifications. This alternative position was advanced in recognition of the importance of comity with National decisions.