It has been difficult to gauge Mr Roach's attitude to risk as he has traditionally made only oblique or guarded acknowledgement of his offences. I note that Mr Roach acknowledged his most recent conviction (against his nephew) during prior assessments (Champion, 16/9/07; Allnut, 5/12/07). However, in other assessments (including the current), Mr Roach has flatly denied any involvement in sexual contact with this person. Even in discussion of offences that he did accept, Mr Roach appeared incapable of reflecting any understanding of how he came to engage in this behaviour. When pressed, he appeared emotionally overwhelmed and the impression was that he was experiencing some sort of blockage. In my experience with men s convicted of sexual offences, Mr Roach exhibited significantly less insight than might normally be observed in such a discussion. His seeming inability to identify important precursors or contributing antecedents to his offending has prohibited the articulation of any real strategy to avoid reoffending beyond a stated commitment to this end. Whilst it is possible that Mr Roach does have a private understanding of these issues which he has chosen not to share, this was certainly not the impression given and there is no evidence of this."
77 Mr Sheehan assessed the defendant's risk of sexual re-offending, using STATIC-99. Mr Sheehan said that the defendant's score on the assessment "indicates a moderate-low presumptive risk level relative to other adult male sexual offenders".
78 In his report Mr Sheehan raised the question of the offender's age. He said:-
"Research into the effect of age on sexual recidivism is a relatively new and developing area. There is a substantial body of longitudinal research suggesting that; as males age, they engage in fewer antisocial activities. However, the evidence from current research is limited to the extent that it is not possible to make any unqualified empirically-based statements about the influence of age-at-release on the risk of sexual reoffending for high risk offenders at age-of-release 60 years or older, particularly when attempting to apply statistical trends to an individual (Doren, 2006).
Mr Roach has reached the age of 58 years. His most recent known sexual offence was committed at the age of 38 years."
79 In his report Mr Sheehan considered dynamic risk factors, that is "those factors…related to sexual recidivism and…amenable to change". Mr Sheehan identified as dynamic risk factors in the defendant's case intimacy deficits, social influences, distorted attitudes, general self-regulation and sexual self-regulation.
80 As to intimacy deficits, Mr Sheehan noted:-
"Intimacy refers to the general capacity to make friends and feel close to others…Mr Roach has had no personal visits in custody since 1998. He has stated that he does not want visitors and wants to be left alone…Phone records reveal that Mr Roach has had little social contact outside of custody."
81 As to social influences, Mr Sheehan said:-
"The nature of an offender's social network is one of the most well established predictors of criminal behaviour."
82 Mr Sheehan added:-
"Mr Roach has spent over 14 years in custody and has largely distanced himself from social influences outside of gaol. As such, it would be unreasonable to expect that he would have a solid range of positive social influences in the community. It is unclear whether his former social network could be described as positive.
When released, Mr Roach will be in the position of having to develop a social network from virtually nothing. This will be a difficult task for him and he would benefit from support in this regard. He may be tempted to establish social contact in alcohol-related situations, which would do little to provide a positive social influence."
83 As to distorted attitudes, Mr Sheehan said that the defendant's score on an attitude inventory "did reveal a small number of distorted beliefs but none could be described as condoning sexual contact with children".
84 As to general self-regulation, Mr Sheehan said:-
"Mr Roach may be described as having deficits in his general self-regulation. He has a restricted range of coping strategies which appear to be limited to consuming alcohol and avoidance. As noted in a previous psychological report, Mr Roach has an ongoing tendency to "cut off from his feelings" which is a poor way of managing emotional states. Mr Roach's failure to undertake CUBIT and complete lack of investment in release planning are indicative of ongoing avoidant coping. He has the ability to insulate himself by distraction, which also inhibits his ability to reflect on himself, to think before acting and to problem solve effectively."
85 As to sexual self-regulation, Mr Sheehan said:-
"Inevitably, Mr Roach's history of sexual offending suggests difficulties with sexual self-regulation, particularly deviant sexual interest. I note that Mr Roach has met the criteria for a diagnosis of Paedophilia. Given Mr Roach's inability to provide an open account of his sexual attraction towards boys, even in the instances where he has sexually offended against them, he could not be considered a reliable source of information regarding this dimension of his sexual interest."
86 Mr Sheehan referred to what he described "acute dynamic risk factors" namely substance abuse, victim access, emotional stress, collapse of social supports and rejection of supervision. Mr Sheehan suggested a scenario for the defendant in which these risk factors would operate:-
"If Mr Roach were residing in the community and returned to previous living habits, such as living a marginalised life, with only superficial relationships based around drinking and working, were he to continue to cope with subjective stress by emotional withdrawal, avoidance and excessive alcohol consumption; were he to come into contact with a young male and experience sexual attraction towards him; were he to fail to acknowledge this openly to himself or any supervising staff, and by ignoring this do nothing to remove himself from the situation. In a scenario such as this, Mr Roach would be at elevated risk of sexually offending."
87 Under the heading "Conclusions and Recommendations" Mr Sheehan said in part:-
"Mr Roach is a 58 year old man who has three clusters of convictions for sexual assault against young males across a 25 (semble 15) year period. All convictions have been for historical offences.
Mr Roach's risk of sexually reoffending is estimated to be in the moderate risk category relative to other men who have sexually offended.
Despite many episodes of encouragement, he has not utilised the opportunity to participate in departmental sex offender treatment programs that may have gone some way to assist him to manage his risk and to enjoy an otherwise more adaptive community life."
88 In an affidavit of 4 February 2010 Mr Sheehan said that further information he had received and further reports he had read since preparing his report had not caused him to alter the opinions he had formed and expressed in his report.