Dr Sally McCarthy
30 Dr McCarthy is the Director of Emergency at Prince of Wales Hospital. Her evidence described the state of the emergency medicine workforce in New South Wales and Australia. Dr McCarthy referred to the reduction in medical school intakes in the 1980s and 1990s, which she said at least partially explained the current shortages in many parts of the specialist workforce, including emergency medicine. She said that given that it takes at least seven years of postgraduate training before a graduate doctor becomes an Emergency Medicine Specialist, it could be safely predicted that the increase in the number of graduates will not impact on the specialist workforce until at least 2015. Therefore, New South Wales, as well as other States and Territories, could expect to be competing for a workforce in short supply for at least another eight years. Dr McCarthy maintained that the dramatic increase in medical students would not flow through to the specialist workforce until several years after 2015.
31 Dr McCarthy referred to reports by AMWAC and the Australian Health Workforce Advisory Committee (AHWAC) on the emergency medicine workforce. She noted that these bodies had concluded that the specialist emergency medicine workforce was undersupplied and that the number of trainees needed to be increased. Further, that recommendations for increased numbers of trainees had not been met, despite the training program being unrestricted. In recent years, Dr McCarthy contended New South Wales' share of new fellows in emergency medicine had not reflected its share of the national population, whereas Victoria has more than its share. In this respect, Dr McCarthy said:
NSW had 24% of the new fellows over the 3 years 2001 to 2003, compared with a 33.6% share of the national population. Over the same 3 year period, Victoria had 34.1% of the new fellows but has only 24.74% of the national population.
32 Dr McCarthy made reference to the Medical Training Review Panel (MTRP), a body established by the federal Government, which had also published detailed information on the emergency medicine workforce. The most recent MTRP Annual Report (2006) noted that there had been a 19.3 per cent decrease in the number of emergency medicine trainees at a time when there has been a 15 per cent increase in medical training positions generally. In 2005 only 22 per cent of new fellows in emergency medicine were in New South Wales, compared to 32.8 per cent in Victoria. Only 28.6 per cent of emergency medicine advanced trainees were employed in New South Wales, compared to 33.5 per cent in Victoria. Dr McCarthy said this could be compared to medical training generally, where 33.8 per cent of training occurred in New South Wales, compared to 27.3 per cent in Victoria.
33 Dr McCarthy noted that the Medical Training and Education Council of New South Wales (MTEC) produced a needs analysis of emergency medicine training in May 2005. The analysis contained the following information:
· Of the 204 funded emergency medicine training positions in accredited NSW emergency departments, only 53.1% are filled by Australian residents registered with ACEM, and 17.2% are filled by non-Australian residents registered with ACEM. The remaining 29.7% of positions are partially filled by Australian and overseas doctors not registered as trainees, i.e. the positions are either vacant, or filled by non-trainees or filled by locums.
· These figures are generally consistent with the findings of an ASMOF survey of emergency departments in October 2006 which concluded that on average, 40-45% of training positions are filled by local graduates; 30% are filled by overseas trainees; the remaining 25-30% at any given time are either vacant or filled by casual staff.
· As at 31 March 2005 there were 169.8 FTE funded positions for emergency physicians, of which 84.6% were filled, i.e. a vacancy rate of 15.4%.
· Most departments accredited for emergency medicine training in NSW did not meet AMWAC staffing recommendations, i.e. a minimum of 11 (up to 16) FTEs for major referral emergency departments. The 10 such departments (excluding paediatric hospitals) in NSW functioned with 73% of the minimum and 50% of the maximum recommended levels.
· In the 18 accredited urban district/regional hospitals, 4 were funded to meet minimum AMWAC recommendations, but only 1 had the funded positions filled.
· No major referral hospital met the minimum AMWAC staffing recommendations and only Tweed Heads met the minimum recommendation for regional hospitals.
· The system for advanced training has an "inclusive entrance policy", in contrast to some training programs where there is competition for advanced training places in the form of entry examinations, e.g. the Royal College of Physicians.
· The shortfall of emergency trainees and specialists has necessitated the employment of many OTDs with a high proportion working within the emergency departments. Like the use of locums, there is a concern about the maintenance of skill level of these OTDs, the nature of their supervision and the sustainability of using both locums and OTDs into the future to provide quality care in emergency departments.
· NSW has approximately 34% of the national population yet only has approximately 30% of the pool of available emergency physicians. This means that the specialist to population ratio in NSW of 1:46,423 is below the national average of 1:40,404.
34 Enlarging on the reference to the increasing use of overseas trained doctors (OTDs) and locum medical officers, Dr McCarthy said the burden of the additional supervision associated with the use of OTDs largely falls on Emergency Physicians. She noted there have been numerous publications expressing concern about the lack of an adequate assessment process for these doctors and the lack of a national coordinated approach. In relation to locums Dr McCarthy stated:
In October 2005 the Director-General of Health released a draft discussion paper on the use of locum medical officers produced by the Greater Metropolitan Clinical Taskforce (GMCT) at the request of the Minister for Health... The paper expressed significant concerns about the cost, quality and safety, legal and sustainability issues associated with the increasing use of locums… and made a number of detailed recommendations. Although it is not included in the paper, I am aware from my involvement in discussions about these issues that GMCT conservatively estimated that the use of locums was costing the NSW Health System more than $30 million per annum over and above what it would cost to employer permanent staff, with an additional $5 million per annum going to locum agencies. This detail was apparently removed from the draft paper before it was officially released.
35 In summarising what she considered to be the clear indications from available data, Dr McCarthy stated:
· Shortages in the specialist medical workforce supply generally will not be affected by increased medical student places until at least 2015, and probably not for several years after 2015. Therefore, we can reasonably anticipate that the areas of the specialist medical workforce that are currently in short supply, including emergency medicine, will remain that way for the next decade.
· The burden of supervising and teaching the increasingly large cohort of junior staff and overseas trained doctors will fall to a large extent on emergency physicians.
· AMWAC recommendations about the number of emergency medicine trainees have not been achieved.
· Contrary to the general trend of increased trainee numbers, there has been a dramatic drop in the number of emergency medicine trainees, from 602 in 1997 to 486 in 2006, the biggest fall of any specialty.
· NSW is consistently below Victoria in both the number of emergency medicine trainees and the number of new fellows, despite Victoria having only 75% of the population. This is inconsistent with medical specialist training numbers generally, which tend to reflect population levels.
· The situation is in fact much worse than these figures suggest. Of those registered as training in NSW in emergency medicine, 20% - 30% are overseas doctors who are likely to return to their country of origin. Another 25% - 30% of available training positions are vacant, with the hospital positions being either vacant or filled by locum/casual doctors.
· The vacancy rate in the funded specialist workforce is approximately 15%. Using the minimum AMWAC recommendations as a basis, the vacancy rate is 27%.
· NSW is below the national average emergency specialist to population ratio.
· There is a heavy reliance on the use of locums and overseas trained doctors to fill vacancies in the emergency medicine workforce. There continue to be significant doubts about the adequacy of the screening of OTDs.