The plaintiffs' alternative valuation exercise
457 This exercise was presented by counsel for the plaintiffs at my suggestion. What I had in mind is best conveyed by what I said in the course of oral submissions at the end of the trial (Tr 3150-3):
HIS HONOUR: … If I were to come to the view that the White transaction is of little weight and that the DCF exercises include forecasts that are not sustainable, is there a third way in which I could, on the evidence that has been adduced, rationally quantify a case for the plaintiff along the following lines: That one had regard to actual pre1993 sales and near misses, dealings that you would say had [ shown a ] serious potential for sales of an order that one could get some feel for; that one could have regard to the total potential markets for peat in various areas; one could look at the price of imported peat and look at what the domestic peat could be sold for; if one then formed a view about the kind of business that was really practicable in 1993 and thought perhaps of a modest growth rate from then on; in other words, if I had no confidence in the reliability of the Robertson projections as an exercise that he undertook, can I rationally do something along the same lines but starting with elements that are secure?
RARES: We would submit yes, and that is really what one gets to in the cases which say the judge has to do the best that he can, on the basis that your Honour does have this very solid base of actual credible material in the different markets.
HIS HONOUR: Look, assuming that I can - and I think you are probably right in saying that it must be open to me to attempt to do it in principle - don't I need to be shown such a path in a much more considered and delineated way by you?
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Well, for example, how much of the mushroom peat market, the accessible mushroom peat market, had he got with Melbourne Mushrooms between 1988 and 1993?
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Then, as far as the growing media situation is concerned, there is the Yates stuff; there is the Debco stuff. It only went a certain distance, but, for reasons that the evidence indicates, perhaps one could put that together to be able to say, well, if Mr Roach had been given a clear run between '88 and '93, well, by 1993 he would have built up a trade in relation to the growing media industry, in the order of such and such.
In relation to the export trade, I mean, there were some transactions.
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See, what brings me to this possible approach is that in the discounted cashflow exercises there is lots of evidence about the quality of the peat, its substitutability for the imported peat, and the available markets, and Mr Roach's management capacities, which, collectively, have been called the assumptions on which the Robertson forecasts are based. But, to a large extent, the movement from those assumed facts to the Robertson forecasts is a great leap. It is a great leap. It is not a step that is taken in a derivative way. It is a step that is taken that is more intuitive than derivative.
Now, as the case has proceeded, a lot of evidence has been given, much of which is capable of being used by the plaintiffs, which supplements a good deal of what was assumed by Mr Robertson about those matters, but which he did not take into account. I have no expert opinion about value which does take them all into account, but I apprehend that it would, nonetheless, be open to the Court, on the principle that the Court must do its best, if I cannot accept the leap that Mr Robertson makes - equal Mr Lonergan, equal Mr Humphreys.
RARES: Yes, I understand.
HIS HONOUR: And if I am not impressed with the weight of the White transaction, I have got to do my best, and it is a best to be done on the whole of the evidence, not just with Mr Robertson. It is that which thus far it does not seem to me has been addressed in an organised kind of way.
458 In a nutshell, what I had in mind was that the plaintiffs might be in a position to lead evidence of actual lines of business conducted in the years 1988 to 1993 which were profitable or were likely to become profitable. I thought this might provide the basis for a valuation of the deposit as at 1993 based on actual sales data rather than forecasts made several years later which bore no relationship to actual sales at the later time, let alone as at 1993.
459 In my suggestion, as recorded in the transcript, I included the assumption of the business being conducted as Mr Roach says he would have done. Mr Roach's continuing involvement in the business cannot now be accommodated for the reasons I have given, but that was not a fundamental element in my suggested approach.
460 I had no expectation, one way or the other, as to whether the exercise I proposed would prove to be practicable or would be productive for the plaintiffs. But I did expect, perhaps naively, that anything produced along these lines would be fairly straightforward. The response was anything but.
461 In response to my suggestion, the plaintiffs produced a file of material (MFI 40) consisting of an 18 page submission document, Plaintiffs' further submissions as to damages, supported by a bundle of tables about one inch thick. This file was then the subject of extensive oral and written submissions by both sides.
462 Because of the stage in the proceedings at which the exercise was generated, there was no expert evidence to support the exercise or to assist the court to understand and evaluate it.
463 The exercise covers two kinds of sales, one being sales of peat for use in the mushroom growing industry and the other being sales of peat for use in the horticulture-nursery trade.
464 Projections of income and expenditure have been produced for the years 1994 to 2019 limited to the two lines of business. Asserted past loss is calculated to the year 2003. Interest on past loss is added. Asserted future loss is calculated for the period 2004 to 2019 on a discounted cash flow basis, using a discount rate of 16.47 per cent. The plaintiffs say that allowance is then to be made for unquantified lines of business: import substitution, export sales and other sales.
465 By way of background, the plaintiffs commenced mining operations at Colac in 1988 and lost the deposit to Mr Groves in the first half of 1993. As recorded above, I envisaged an exercise which took as its starting point actual sales of Colac peat by the plaintiffs in the period 1988 to 1993. The plaintiffs were apparently unable to make an arguable case along those lines. The starting assumptions for mushroom sales are based on actual sales of Colac peat in the year ended 30 June 1995 (the second year after the plaintiffs lost the deposit) and the starting assumptions for the horticulture-nursery business are based on actual sales made still later and not of Colac peat.
466 There are three separate calculations of loss in relation to the mushroom industry line of business, called Scenarios A, B and C.
467 Scenario A begins with the sale of 2,100 m3 of peat in 1994. In that scenario, the annual volume of sales is then assumed to increase after 1994, reaching 15,000 m3 in 1998. That volume is then maintained through to 2019. The price of $140/m3 in 1994 increases to $144 in 1999 and to $160 in 2001. That is then maintained to 2019.
468 The evidence for the starting data in Scenario A is the actual sale of 2,050 m3 of Colac peat to Campbells Mushrooms in the year ended 30 June 1995 at $141/m3. The evidence for the increase in price thereafter is the sale of Colac peat to others at $144/m3 in 2000 and at $159/m3 in 2003.
469 The evidence relied on for the huge increase in the volume of sales in Scenario A after 1994 is of a more general nature, namely, evidence of an increase in the proportion of peat used in mushroom casings in the mushroom growing industry and of increase in the size of the mushroom growing industry itself.
470 Scenarios B and C assume larger increases still in the annual volume of sales: in Scenario B to 20,000 m3 in 2002 through to 2019; and , in Scenario C, to 20,000 m3 in 2002 and then to 30,000 m3 from 2003 through to 2019.
471 The same general kind of evidence is relied on to support the more substantial increases in volume of sales in Scenarios B and C as is relied on to support the increases in volume of sales in Scenario A.
472 There are then 12 further scenarios, A1 to 4, B1 to 4 and C1 to 4. In these scenarios, the line of business in relation to the horticulture-nursery industry is added in as from 1997.
473 In 1997, the company Debco held a substantial share of the wholesale potting mix market for NSW and Victoria. In that year, Debco was selling 10 litre bags of potting mix at pallet prices from $2.95 per bag ($295/m3) to $4.21 per bag ($421/m3), and 30 litre bags at prices from $7.24 ($241/m3) to $8.61 ($287/m3). In 1997, Debco was not using Colac peat in its products.
474 Scenarios A1, B1 and C1 include a potting mix sales revenue of $457,000 for each of the years 1997 to 2019, based on the assumed sale of 5,000 m3 of peat in 10 litre bags. Scenarios A2, B2 and C2 assume additional sales, generating a sales revenue of $812,500 for each of those years. Scenarios A3, B3 and C3 assume still higher potting mix sales, generating a sales revenue of $915,000 for potting mix in each of those years. In scenarios A4, B4 and C4, higher sales again are assumed with an annual revenue of $1,625,000.
475 The revenue figures are the product of an analysis of Debco's pricing and cost structure as at 1997 and the plaintiffs' estimate of the capacity of an operator of the Colac deposit to penetrate the wholesale potting mix market in that year and subsequent years.
476 For the year 1994, the outcome under Scenarios A, B and C is negative for nett cashflow before financing and tax and for nett cashflow after tax. The outcome in scenarios A, B & C does not become positive until 1998 for nett cashflow before financing and tax and until 2003 (Scenario A) and 2002 (Scenarios B and C) for nett cashflow after tax. Accordingly, so far as the mushroom growing trade in isolation is concerned, a positive result is dependent upon the huge assumed increase in the volume of sales subsequent to 1994.
477 The addition, as from 1997, of the assumed line of business in relation to the horticulture-nurseries trade, as presented in Scenarios A1 to 4, B1 to 4 and C1 to 4, results in a positive figure as from 1997 for nett cashflow before financing and tax, although not for nett cashflow after tax until 1998, 1999 or 2000 (depending on the scenario).
478 Accordingly, either the huge increase in the volume of sales for mushroom growing subsequent to 1994 or the addition of the assumed sales to the horticulture-nursery trade commencing in 1997 is necessary in order to produce a positive result for the exercise as a whole.
479 There are serious problems for the plaintiffs in relation to this exercise.
480 The increases in sale volumes in relation to the mushroom growing industry assumed in Scenario A are indeed huge: a 230 per cent increase in the period 1994 to 1997 and a further 115 per cent increase on that in 1998. That is an increase of over 600 per cent in four years. In Scenarios B and C the sales volumes increase even further in subsequent years by large margins.
481 These increases in volume of sales to the mushroom growing industry are based, as I have mentioned, on evidence of an increase in the proportion of peat used by the industry in casings and on evidence of the growth of the industry. There is merit in the defendants' submission that the assumption of an expanding market for peat in the mushroom growing industry, to the extent assumed by the plaintiffs, is insecure in view of the evidence that the increase in mushroom production has, in large measure, been due to increased productivity and efficiency.
482 But, even allowing for a large increase in the available market, the plaintiffs' figures depend on an operator of the Colac deposit capturing a substantial part of that market. The extent to which that could be expected is pure conjecture, and imponderable without the benefit of expert evidence. The court has no expertise in marketing. I have no way of evaluating these sales volume figures. For all I know, they are a massive underestimate or a massive overestimate.
483 The costs introduced by the plaintiffs are also insecure. In many respects, the deficiencies relate as readily to the costs assumptions behind the major DCF valuations presented by Mr Humphreys and Mr Lonergan. I found it unnecessary to go into detail about those costs in that context because the DCF approach, as presented by Mr Humphreys and Mr Lonergan, was so obviously flawed and valueless on other grounds. Closer consideration in some respects is now warranted in the present context.
484 The plaintiffs have taken administrative costs of $400,000 from Mr Humphreys, but the figure in his ultimate model was actually $650,000. More importantly, in proposing a figure for administrative costs, Mr Humphreys assumed that the extracting and marketing of peat from this deposit was a relatively simple operation and that administrative expenses incurred by later operators were avoidable. For the reasons I have given earlier in this judgment, the assumption as to the simplicity of the operation was unwarranted. In particular, the assumption avoided consideration of the need for investigation, facilities and manpower in order to maintain adequate quality control over the product, all of which were uncosted, if indeed satisfactory quality control of peat from this deposit was ever practicable.
485 Research and development costs and rehabilitation costs in the plaintiffs' third approach have also been taken directly from the Humphreys model. Those costs were simply a figure assumed by Mr Humphreys without regard to the actual costs incurred in that regard by later operators.
486 A fixed cost is included in the exercise for plant at $650,000. That is based on the cost to PAL of $654,976 in establishing its plant at Geelong. There is no reason to suppose that that plant was adequate. Judging from the company's performance, there is reason to think it was not. Even after the expenditure of about $1m by 30 June 2002 on Biogreen's plant at Colac, peat from the deposit was not being processed suitably. In these circumstances, it is not established that the provision of $650,000 for plant in the plaintiffs' third approach is adequate provision.
487 In relation to variable costs, these are taken from Appendix I (earlier referred to). I have made my comment in relation to that document. Furthermore, applying Biogreen's variable costs in the year 2000 to assumed operations in 1994 is not secure.
488 Marketing costs are included at $3.70/m3. That is the figure assumed by Mr Humphreys. It was not supported by him in any analytical way and the assumed context was, again, a simple business operation.
489 The assumed sales to the horticulture-nurseries trade are proffered on an assumption that an operator of the Colac deposit would have gone into this market. Mr Roach did not do so when he was in control of the business. The assumption is insecure in the extreme.
490 The defendants join issue with the way in which the plaintiffs have derived the revenue figures in scenarios A1-4, B1-4 and C1-4 from Debco's pricing and cost structure in 1997. There is no expert accountancy evidence to mediate that debate. I do not believe I am competent to resolve it without such assistance. I am not satisfied that the plaintiffs' methodology is sound.
491 The suitability of Colac peat for the horticulture-nurseries trade was strongly in issue in the proceedings, as was its capacity to compete against imported peat and peat substitutes. I find it unnecessary to resolve these issues. It is sufficient for present purposes that the assumptions of market penetration which underlie this aspect of the plaintiffs' exercise are simply not made out. How can the court decide, without the benefit of expert evidence, the likely extent to which an operator of the Colac deposit could expect to penetrate this market either as a seller to horticulturalists and retailers or as a supplier to other wholesale marketers such as Debco? To support the assumed volume of sales, the plaintiffs refer to the size of the market and the asserted suitability of Colac peat to satisfy the requirements of that market. There is, however, no logical nexus between these considerations and the sales volumes which they are said to support.
492 In this respect, the exercise suffers from one of the fundamental flaws in the plaintiffs' major DCF exercise. Assumed sales are speculations. There is no way of evaluating their reliability or of making any kind of rational adjustment. It was to avoid this difficulty that I suggested the possibility of starting with actual sales of Colac peat made in the period 1988 to 1993 but (as I have said) that was apparently not an available way forward for the plaintiffs.
493 There are then two points to be made in relation to the exercise as a whole. First, the use of the 16.47 per cent discount rate for future loss suffers from the same difficulties in relation to this exercise as it does in relation to the plaintiffs' major DCF exercise. It defies the criteria laid down by Mr Lonergan to use that rate in relation to cashflows which are not grounded in experience or adjusted for probability. The court is in no position, unassisted, to adjust the discount rate in that way. Lastly, a glance at the tables used in support of this exercise is sufficient to show that an evaluation of the exercise without the benefit of expert accountancy evidence is more than can reasonably be expected.
494 Once the plaintiffs found they were unable - as I thought might be possible - to make a case based on revenue and costs in relation to actual sales prior to 1993, with perhaps some modest allowance for growth, an approach based on hypothetical rather than actual sales appears to have been doomed from the start because of the insecurity of the assumptions required and the unavoidable intricacy of the methodology.
495 The plaintiffs have not established by this alternative valuation exercise that, as at 1993, the Colac deposit had any commercial value.