Paragraph 37 of the RIVERCITY Statement of Claim
15 Each of the representations alleged to have been made by the respondent are alleged at para 37 of the Rivercity Statement of Claim to have been (inter alia) false or misleading because:
(a) AECOM did not have reasonable grounds for making AECOM's Traffic Forecasts, the Conservative Representations, the Risk Representations and the Reliability Representations;
(b) AECOM's Traffic Forecasts, the Conservative Forecasts and the Risk Forecasts were not the product of the exercise of due skill and care;
(c) AECOM's traffic methodology did not adequately accommodate all relevant risks that might affect the accuracy of AECOM's Traffic Forecasts; and
(d) AECOM's Traffic Forecasts could not be relied upon.
16 Various particulars have been given by the applicants in respect of para 37 of the Rivercity Statement of Claim. The same particulars are given in respect of the corresponding paragraph (para 16) in the WestLB Statement of Claim. The respondent contends that the particulars provided to date are deficient.
17 The particulars to para 37 included in the Rivercity Statement of Claim are as follows:
Particulars
(i) The methodology utilised by AECOM to forecast future traffic volumes on the NSBT could not reliably form the basis of a traffic forecast for the NSBT Project at least because:
(A) it relied on survey data which was deficient because it failed to ask critical questions of participants as to route choices in the context of alternate tolled and untolled routes, and further, because it failed to provide participants with relevant information concerning comparative journey times on tolled and untolled routes;
(B) it relied on unreasonable assumptions, including that drivers would choose to use the tolled NSBT even where such a route would be more expensive and take longer than an untolled route, or where the relevant journey destination was the CBD or south west suburbs of Brisbane (which the NSBT bypassed);
(C) it relied on unreasonable predictions of traffic growth in Brisbane after 2005;
(D) it did not model predicted traffic use for 22 hours of the day, or on weekends;
(E) it predicted future demand by reference to a one hour demand forecast derived from a 2-hour week-day peak-hour period;
(F) it used a "peak to daily expansion factor" to predict, on the basis of the one-hour demand forecast, average weekday demand;
(G) it calculated an expansion factor solely on traffic profiles of un-tolled roads, such roads having a higher peak to daily expansion factor than toll roads;
(H) the "peak to daily expansion factor" calculated was higher than all (or alternatively, substantially all) other toll roads in Australia;
(I) it used a "weekday to year expansion factor" to further convert average weekday demand as calculated into annual demand;
(J) it calculated the "weekday to year expansion factor" based solely on traffic profiles of un-tolled roads, which also have higher weekday to year expansion factors than toll-roads;
(K) the model made no allowance for seasonal adjustments, including for school holidays;
(L) the model assumed, in favour of the NSBT, that some users prefer toll roads without also assuming that some users prefer untolled routes; and
(M) AECOM's methodology did not include, as a check on the reasonableness and/or accuracy of AECOM's Traffic Forecasts, a comparison of AECOM's Traffic Forecasts generated by its model with actual traffic volumes on comparable toll-roads in Australia and elsewhere.
(ii) AECOM used modelling which was not sufficiently rigorous and failed to give any or adequate consideration to at least the following factors:
(A) the reasonableness of its forecasts having regard to other toll roads in Australia and overseas;
(B) the reasonableness of its route predictions, having regard to origin and destination of routes modelled;
(C) the variability of demand at different times of the day;
(D) the variability of demand at different times of the week;
(E) the variability of demand at different times of the year;
(F) the capacity of the NSBT;
(G) the correlation between speed of travel and volume of traffic at any point in time;
(H) the correlation of route choice and tolling disincentives; and
(I) the correlation between capacity and likely volumes of traffic use on opening.
(iii) Further particulars may be provided after service of an expert's report.
18 During the course of oral argument the respondent confined its complaints about the sufficiency of the particulars to para (i), sub-paras (B), (C), (G), (H) and (J), and para (ii) in its entirety.
19 In relation to para (i), sub-paras (B) and (C), the respondent's first point is that the applicants should be required to identify all the unreasonable assumptions and traffic growth predictions upon which the applicants will rely at trial. The respondent's second point is that the particulars given do not specify on what basis such assumptions and predictions are said to have been unreasonable.
20 In my opinion, the respondent's complaints concerning para (i), sub-paras (B) and (C) are well founded. As to sub-para (B), I will require the applicants to specify each assumption which they contend was unreasonable. They will also be required to specify on what basis the applicants contend each such assumption was unreasonable. As to sub-para (C), I will require the applicants to identify each of the traffic growth predictions said to be unreasonable and to specify on what basis the applicants contend it was unreasonable.
21 I should add that I do not think the applicants should be required (at least not prior to the filing of their expert evidence in chief) to state "what would have been reasonable assumptions or the basis or parameters of a set of assumptions that would not have been unreasonable" as they were requested to do by the respondent's solicitors. There is an assumption underlying the respondent's request for this information that the applicants could not establish that a particular assumption used to make the respondent's traffic forecasts was unreasonable without also establishing what would have been a reasonable assumption or range of assumptions that the respondent should have used. I am not persuaded that this is necessarily correct. It is often possible to prove that a particular assumption was unreasonable without proving what would have been a reasonable assumption or range of assumptions to make. An assumption may be unreasonable simply because there is no sufficient basis to make it.
22 I consider sub-paras (G), (H) and (J) to be in a different category. They do not suffer from the same lack of specificity evident in sub-paras (B) and (C). Sub-para (G) makes clear that the applicants contend that it was unreasonable for the respondent to use an expansion factor based upon traffic profiles of un-tolled roads and also indicates why the applicants contend that the use of such an expansion factor was unreasonable. What I have said about sub-para (G) also applies to sub-para (J). Sub-para (H), which is closely related to sub-para (G), simply makes the point that one of the "peak to daily" expansion factors used by the respondent was higher than that for all other toll roads in Australia.
23 I will not require the applicants to provide further particulars of these sub-paras at this time, but I will consider doing so at some later stage of the proceeding once the applicants' expert reports have been served if the respondent satisfies me at that point that it does not know what case it is required to meet.
24 Turning to para (ii) of the particulars, it was submitted on behalf of the respondent that these suffer from two problems. First, it was said that the particulars do not indicate which of the matters specified in para (ii), sub-paras (A)-(I) were given no consideration as opposed to no adequate consideration. Secondly, it was said that the particulars do not explain what "adequate" consideration means.
25 As to the first of these complaints, I think it lacks substance. The respondent has specifically denied in its Amended Defence (at para 39(g)(xxv)) that it failed to give any consideration, or any reasonable consideration, to each of the matters specified in para (ii), sub-paras (A)-(I) save, perhaps, for "tolling disincentives" referred to in (H), in answer to which the respondent has instead referred to "driver willingness to pay".
26 The allegation that the respondent failed to give adequate consideration to the matters referred to in para (ii), sub-paras (A)-(I) is something I do not propose to require the applicants to further particularise. Assuming that consideration was given to each of the matters specified in para (ii), sub-paras (A)-(I) then the question whether the consideration given to these matters was adequate is a matter for evidence.
27 The respondent also submitted that the particulars to para 37 could not be related with any specificity to each of the specific allegations made in para 37(a)-(d) of the Rivercity Statement of Claim and that the whole of the paragraph should therefore be struck out. In particular, but by way of example only, it was said that few, if any, of the particulars could be related to the allegation made in para 37(c) to the effect that the respondent's traffic methodology did not adequately accommodate all relevant risks that might affect the accuracy of the respondent's traffic forecasts.
28 I do not think there is any substance to this complaint so far as para 37(a), (b) and (d) are concerned. It seems to me that the connection between the allegations pleaded in para 37(a), (b) and (d) and the particularised deficiencies in the methodology and modelling used by the respondent is directly apparent. The position in relation to para 37(c) is different. On the face of it, none of the particulars provided has a direct connection to the allegation made in para 37(c). In the circumstances, I will require the applicants to provide further particulars that specify in what respects the respondent's traffic methodology failed to adequately accommodate all relevant risks that might affect the accuracy of the respondent's traffic forecasts.
29 In the result, I do not propose to strike out para 37 of the Rivercity Statement of Claim. However, I am satisfied that the applicants should provide further particulars in accordance with the rulings set out above.